Thursday, September 22, 2016

2016 COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em Week 3

We're two weeks into the NFL season, and... suffice it to say I'm not off to a rousing start.

There's some separation at the top now as my dad had a phenomenal week, Logan continues basically being a coin flip, and Grant, who led after Week 1 had a down follow up effort. Meanwhile on COAS itself, Adam took five of our seven disputed games this past week to take a three game lead on me.

And so I sit alone in the basement of the COAS standings, but this early, still within striking distance of the lead, so hopefully I can start to turn things around this week. In the meantime, if you want to see a breakdown of picks by everyone, I've compiled the first two weeks' worth here.

Adam is out of town for work this week, but was still able to get me his Week 3 picks in time. I can only hope that I can win a majority of the four disputed games thanks to Adam's being distracted by travel.

Thursday Night

Houston Texans @ New England Patriots (-0.5)
Lucas: Texans. I'm underestimating Jacoby Brissett, who has put up decent numbers both this preseason and in relief of Jimmy Garoppolo last week, at my own peril as he has just three days to prepare and has to deal with J.J. Watt. New England can't possibly keep this up... can they?
Adam: Texans. I know that the Pats should be getting Gronk back (I assume) this week, but going down to their 3rd string QB will make it tough. Will Fuller has been explosive and Miller is only getting started.  I'll take the Texans on the road in a pick’em.


Sunday, Early Afternoon

Arizona Cardinals @ Buffalo Bills (+4.5)
Lucas: Cardinals. I wanted to make a quip that maybe Buffalo's defense was the problem and Greg Roman was a scapegoat, but the Bills are 25th in scoring and 30th in yards, and many of the advanced stats aren't much more forgiving. Still a dick move to fire the guy right after the team photo though...
Adam: Cardinals. Wow, did they look good last week putting up 40 points. The Bills have been historically good defensively so they could put up a few stops against the Cards, but with Sammy Sammy still not 100%, I don’t see this going anyway but to the road favorite.


Denver Broncos @ Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5)
Lucas: Broncos. How is Cincy favored?! Sure, Andy Dalton leads the league in passing yards, but dude has gotten beat up in the pocket. Von Miller has to be drooling.
Adam: Broncos. This comes down to which offense can get things going better. I just think the Broncos get things going better than the Bengals.

Cleveland Browns @ Miami Dolphins (-9.5)
Lucas: Browns. New gambling rule: Never bet against Cody Kessler in a Week 3 when the two quarterbacks ahead of him on the depth chart are out with injuries. Especially when he's getting almost double digits.
Adam: Dolphins. We want RGIII- oh wait, never mind, he is hurt. We want Johnny Football- oh wait, he is not playing any more. We want Weeden… oh, eff it. Fins.

Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers (-7.5)
Lucas: Lions. The last time Detroit won a game at Lambeau I was 2...5. I really want to believe that Green Bay will kick start another 24 year streak, but at 7.5 points, I'm going to trust the words of my high football IQ former editor Ollie Connolly... even if it means I'm betting on this.
Adam: Packers. At home Jordy is starting to roll and Lacy is rolling very slow... but hey, it's Green Bay at home in a divisional match up. I am tempted by the points considering how the Lions can play, but no.

Oakland Raiders @ Tennessee Titans (-1.5)
Lucas: Titans. I could go either way on this, especially with the Del Rioboat on the other side, but I'll be honest: I just wanted an excuse to play the Attack on Titan theme song again.
Adam: Titans. I’ll give them some cred this week…

Minnesota Vikings @ Carolina Panthers (-6.5)
Lucas: Vikings. Noting the earlier issues with Green Bay's offense, this will be the sternest test the Vikings' defense will face so far this year. I'm going to take the points, but I still expect the Panthers to win.
Adam: Vikings. Tough call. Carolina has been playing poorly overall and the Vikings (even down AP), are shaping up to have a very nice offense.

Washington Redskins @ New York Giants (-4.5)
Lucas: Giants. Josh Norman won Round 1 last year, so it only seems fair that given his presence on an otherwise not very good team, I give the edge to OBJ this time. This should be fun... just don't go spearing people again.
Adam: Giants. Figuring this have to start rolling well for the G men here soon. Thinking it is this week. Load up on OBJ, Manning, and crew.

Baltimore Ravens @ Jacksonville Jaguars (+0.5)
Lucas: Jaguars. The Ravens are 2-0, but have beaten a pair of awful teams. Jacksonville had some bad luck in Week 1 and didn't show up last week, but I figure they respond this week.
Adam: Jaguars. Just because I can.
Lucas note: ...Fair enough.
 
Sunday, Late Afternoon

Los Angeles Rams @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-4.5)
Lucas: Rams. I'm assuming this line is here because we still haven't a touchdown for a Los Angeles-based team since 1994, but the Rams' defense is all right. I'll take the points here.
Adam: Rams. Maybe the Rams, who are 1-1, can finally score a touchdown this year...
Lucas note: What's a couple extra weeks when you've waited 22 years?
 
San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks (-9.5)
Lucas: 49ers. I don't feel good about this pick because I have a feeling the Seahawks are going to break out of their funk at some point, but until then, I can't justify laying this many points, even at CenturyLink. 
Adam: Seahawks. At home, I’m happy to give a few extra points to San Francisco.

San Diego Chargers @ Indianapolis Colts (-2.5)
Lucas: Colts. I could probably walk into the Colts' facility today and land the fourth or fifth cornerback role given all their injuries. Sure, I'd get torched because I run like a 6.1 40, but it might be okay because Phillip Rivers is running out of guys to throw to.
Adam: Colts. How is this game only a 2.5 point spread? Down Woodhead and Allen, someone will have to step up big for San Diego to do much of anything the rest of the year.

New York Jets @ Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5)
Lucas: Chiefs. If you give up 31 points to the freaking Bills who just fired their offensive coordinator, why should I pick you the following week?
Adam: Chiefs. I think Charles will be back this week so Ware fans will have to put him on the bench or even drop him all together from fantasy leagues soon.  Anyway, this game could go a lot of ways. But I see the Chiefs doing it with Smith in the air.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Philadelphia Eagles (+3.5)
Lucas: Steelers. As much as I like what Carson Wentz (Go Bison) has done so far, I've underestimated the Steelers the first two weeks given the suspensions. No more.
Adam: Steelers. A road favorite again, I’ll take the Steelers give a field goal-plus. Last week of Bells suspension, soon Pitt will be firing on all cylinders.

Sunday Night

Chicago Bears @ Dallas Cowboys (-5.5)
Lucas: Cowboys. The Bears had three 4th round picks in this year's draft and took three defensive players. Dallas took Dak Prescott eight picks after their final one. I get the whole DUI thing (though he was acquitted in July), but the Bears need an eventual successor to Jay Cutler, especially since he's hurt again. You had multiple chances, Ryan Pace... 
Adam: Cowboys.
Lucas note: When Adam sent his picks, I had to double check to make sure he didn't forget to write up anything. His response was, "Haha. I think I may become a Green Bay fan. Bears suck that bad. We lost to Philly. PHILLY." My public response: 

Monday Night

Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints (-3.5)
Lucas: Falcons. This will probably end up being a shootout, but I'm taking the points because I don't trust New Orleans. 
Adam: Saints. Brees at home? Yes please. Now just start connecting with Fleener and I will be happy in my fantasy world.

Records Last Week
Lucas: 11-21 (6-10 last week)
Adam: 14-18 (9-7 last week)
Scott: 18-14 (11-5 last week)
Grant: 14-18 (5-11 last week)
Logan: 16-16 (8-8 last week)

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