The NFL Is Broken

I feel like there's a general rule with how I decide on topics for Confessions of a Sportscaster. There are the somewhat scheduled posts, either for the Death to the BCS Playoffs, Pigskin Pick 'Em contest, or Game Notes from North Central games. Then there's the unscheduled ones, where something happens and I feel compelled to write about it. It happened in September when the NFL couldn't figure out what the hell roughing the passer is. My most cited one is when Lance Easley and Golden Tate stole a win with their bullcrap (and make sure you see through The Ringer's lies; that play was not even remotely close to 50-50).

But Saints fans might be justified in thinking they got screwed over more than Green Bay did that fateful night in 2012. And Chiefs fans? They could serve as a catalyst for another rule change that's arguably just as important.

2019 NFL Championship Weekend Preview

It was another chaotic week at work, so I’m late getting these on record. But Adam just got me his picks, so we’re back to pick the conference championship games!

Formatting edits have been made to this post after the fact for readability. No changes have been made to the predictions.

2019 NFL Divisional Preview

It was a week full of chaos and a relatively heavy workload. And in Adam's case, being in a state of mourning and/or anger at Cody Parkey, so we're scrambling to get our Divisional Round previews up before kickoff!

We had a so-so Wild Card weekend, with Adam taking a narrow lead overall. But now the stakes are higher as the top two teams from each conference will make their 2018 postseason debuts this weekend.

Once again, below Adam and I will each have a little more in-depth analysis of the games this weekend and our final score picks, which will count as picks both straight up and against the spread.

Let's get to it!

2018 AFC West Preview

We're onto Day 3 of my series of NFL previews, and we're working our way counterclockwise around the country as we go division by division.

Over the last couple days I've taken a look at the two North divisions, and by the time we hit the middle of next week I will have made my predictions for the entire league. We're swapping back to the AFC today, and this time we're looking out west as we'll eventually circle our way back to the division holding our defending champion.

2018 NFL Wild Card Preview

I had a mediocre performance in the finale of the 2017 Pigskin Pick 'Em, which was enough to get me to .500, but not enough to overcome Adam catching fire to win the contest. Kudos to him. And now, my attention turns to the NFL playoffs.

It's weird following a playoff that doesn't have my Packers in them, something that hasn't happened since I was a sophomore in college. I'm old.

But even with them not in, we've still got 11 exciting games on tap, and I want to make sure I get a look at them all. I'll go a little more in depth than we did for the Pigskin Pick 'Em contest, but come the Super Bowl I'm hoping Adam and I will have our usual prop bets thing again.

In the meantime, here's a look at the four games coming up this weekend.

2017 AFC West Preview

We've made it to the end of August, which means football season is almost here! As such, I'm well underway in my set of previews for the upcoming season.

I've spent the last few days going division by division, rounding my way around the country before ultimately ending in the division of the defending champion. After today, we'll be halfway home.

With a week until the start of the NFL season, there is still time to get in on picking NFL games against the spread. Adam Quinn will join me once again in a weekly feature where we'll pick the games, and you can join our fun here.

Let's get on to the preview.

2017 NFL Divisional Preview

We're fast approaching another weekend, and the NFL playoffs are in full swing. Just eight teams remain in the quest for the Lombardi Trophy, and the four best teams from this past season are back in action this weekend.

All in all, last weekend was relatively uneventful unless you're one of the idiots who's blowing the whole Giants-On-The-Boat thing out of proportion. Them spending the off day with their families back home or whatever probably wouldn't have changed their defense getting torched by Aaron Rodgers in the final 35 minutes of the game.

So with that out of the way, let's take a look at the four games on tap this weekend.

2016 AFC West Preview

After a week of going around the league, we've finally come to the end. The NFL season officially kicks off tomorrow as we seek to crown a new Super Bowl champion.

As has been my tradition, I've alternated conferences and worked my way around the country until I close with the division that houses the defending champion. That means I close with the AFC West and the defending champion Broncos.

So, one final time, if you're looking for something else to do this football season in addition to rooting for your team and your fantasy players, you can join my and Adam Quinn's ESPN Pigskin Pick 'Em group. We will have our Week 1 picks available for you tomorrow.

So with that out of the way, let's finish this off.

2015 AFC West Preview

We're just one week away from the start of the NFL season! I can taste it!

Today I'm officially at the halfway point of my NFL previews, as I go division by division. So far, three of my four wild card picks are in. Will my fourth come today?

If you want to read a little more in-depth previews on NFL teams, you can check out the work of my colleagues over at UKEndZone. They're also going division by division, and are doing a fantastic job. If your interest lies more with picking games against the spread, I do have that option available to you as well: you can join a group with myself and Adam Quinn, who will be picking games weekly with me in an attempt to overthrow me. He almost did last year. This year my dad and Grabbing the Bull Horns blogger Geoffrey Clark (our defending champion, actually) will also be joining us, though we haven't discussed anything about him writing up picks with Adam and I. We'll see.

Let's take a look at the AFC West.

AFC West

Common opponents on schedule: AFC North, NFC North

1. Denver Broncos
2014: 12-4 (1st), lost in AFC Divisional Game
At this point, I think we can say Peyton Manning is on the downswing of his career, but his slight decline still makes him one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. I'm also not sold on his supporting cast as much this year: he still has Demaryius Thomas as his top target as well as Emmanuel Sanders, but the depth that has been there the last couple years isn't there. He does have a decent running game with C.J. Anderson as well, so offensively, they'll probably be fine. They've got good pass rushers on defense still with Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware, and they're solid at corner with Aqib Talib and Chris Harris. I can't guarantee anything in January, but the Broncos will be there.
2015 Prediction: 12-4

2. San Diego Chargers
2014: 9-7 (T-2nd), missed playoffs
San Diego was in the mix late last season before just missing out on the postseason, but they bring back much of their talent on offense. Antonio Gates will miss the first four games to suspension, but Phillip Rivers has other targets to work with in Malcom Floyd and Keenan Allen, while there's a decent ground game with Branden Oliver and rookie Melvin Gordon as well as Danny Woodhead for pass catching. Their defense is okay, but not really notable in any way, though they'll keep the team in the hunt. I just don't think they'll have quite enough again this year, falling just short of the postseason for a second straight year.
2015 Prediction: 9-7

3. Kansas City Chiefs
2014: 9-7 (T-2nd), missed playoffs
Kansas City also did pretty well last year but also just missed the playoffs. After a first in the modern era: a season with no touchdown passes to wide receivers, that will probably change with Jeremy Maclin in town. While Alex Smith is a decent quarterback, the offense still revolves around Jamaal Charles. On defense, there's still a lot of talent here led by Tamba Hali, Justin Houston and Dontari Poe, but I'm not really sold on the secondary. This team will be okay, but not great.
2015 Prediction: 8-8

4. Oakland Raiders
2014: 3-13 (4th), missed playoffs
Ah, Oakland... We are starting to see a foundation with Derek Carr at quarterback, and now he has legitimate targets to throw to in Michael Crabtree and rookie Amari Cooper. Latavius Murray will be a decent running back, but let's remember that this is a young offense, so there will be some growing pains. The defense got a bit of an upgrade with Justin Tuck to anchor the defensive line, and Charles Woodson remains a good veteran presence, but there are just too many holes. As long as the Raiders understand they need to stay the course rebuilding and work around the pieces they have, their future might be good. Their 2015, however... not so much.
2015 Prediction: 4-12

We're halfway home. Check back tomorrow when I preview the division most relevant to me and my general area in the NFC North.

AFC West Preview

Everyone has their fourth and final preseason game in the books, so this is the last Sunday for a while without NFL football. The excitement is getting close. With two divisions left to go, each conference still has a wild card that I haven't accounted for, which means there's one more on the docket today.

With just a few days left, you still have time to join in on the COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em contest. It's free to join with an ESPN account (also free), and you can pick games against the spread with me and see how you can compare with someone who's happened to be above .500 the last two seasons.

Advertisement out of the way, let's get to the preview. Today, the AFC West.

Common opponents on schedule: AFC East, NFC West

1. Denver Broncos
2013: 13-3 (1st), lost Super Bowl XLVIII
The Broncos broke records upon records last year, with Peyton Manning throwing for 55 touchdowns. There will be some regression to the mean this season, especially with Wes Welker missing at least part of the season with a concussion. Manning still has Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker to throw to though, plus a decent running game with Montee Ball. I question this defense a bit though. Adding Aqib Talib was a good move for the secondary, but I'm not sure how good Rahim Moore will be. The defection of DeMarcus Ware is a big move though too, especially when you have him playing with Von Miller. But really, as long as Peyton is around, the Broncos are the team to beat.
2014 Prediction: 12-4

2. San Diego Chargers
2013: 9-7 (3rd), lost in AFC Divisional Round
The power of Phillip Rivers' bolo tie showed up late in the season as the Bolts won their final four games to sneak into the playoffs, and even picked up a playoff win. Early last year, everyone (me included) were down on Rivers. Now, he's worked his way back into the upper tiers of quarterbacks.  It helps that he has some solid weapons again this year with wideouts like Keenan Allen, and Antonio Gates is a veteran presence in the middle of the field. Their running game should be good too with the depth they have. I'm not sure what to make of the defense after they gave up the fourth-most passing yards in 2013. The third place schedule should help a bit though.
2014 Prediction: 9-7, Wild Card

3. Kansas City Chiefs
2013: 11-5 (2nd), lost in AFC Wild Card Round
This team was kind of a paper tiger last year; after starting 9-0, they closed the year with a 2-6 mark, including that playoff collapse at Indy. If there's some health on this roster the Chiefs will be in contention for a playoff spot, but I'm not super sold on the depth on defense. Tamba Hali and Dontari Poe need to stay healthy. Meanwhile on offense, Dwayne Bowe had a down year again. Is it Alex Smith, or is he past his prime? And just how good is Alex Smith? With Andy Reid at the helm, they can probably do some damage on offense, especially with Jamaal Charles. I just think last year had some flukiness to it.
2014 Prediction: 8-8

4. Oakland Raiders
2013: 4-12 (4th), missed playoffs
The Raiders got next to nothing from the quarterback spot last year. It's a question this year of which Matt Schaub they got: 2012 or 2013. Rookie Derek Carr could take over if it's the latter. The ground game is intriguing this year with the addition of Maurice Jones-Drew to back up Darren McFadden, but in the air, will the Curse of Leaving Aaron Rodgers hurt James Jones like it hurt Greg Jennings? On defense, Khalil Mack will eventually be a big part of this defense, but a lot of the rest looks like veteran retreads (Nick Roach, Charles Woodson and Justin Tuck to name three). Probably not a good year for the silver and black yet again.
2014 Prediction: 4-12

With the AFC done, here's a look at how I would seed the playoffs.

1. Denver Broncos: 12-4
2. Indianapolis Colts: 11-5
3. New England Patriots: 10-6
4. Cincinnati Bengals: 10-6
5. Baltimore Ravens: 9-7
6. San Diego Chargers: 9-7

Labor Day is tomorrow, but I still have some football posts to do. However, I'm taking a couple day break from the NFL to go back to covering college football. Tomorrow I look at the games from Week 1, then Tuesday will be coverage of the Week 2 schedule. Wednesday I will have my final division preview with the home of the defending champs.