The NFL Is Broken

I feel like there's a general rule with how I decide on topics for Confessions of a Sportscaster. There are the somewhat scheduled posts, either for the Death to the BCS Playoffs, Pigskin Pick 'Em contest, or Game Notes from North Central games. Then there's the unscheduled ones, where something happens and I feel compelled to write about it. It happened in September when the NFL couldn't figure out what the hell roughing the passer is. My most cited one is when Lance Easley and Golden Tate stole a win with their bullcrap (and make sure you see through The Ringer's lies; that play was not even remotely close to 50-50).

But Saints fans might be justified in thinking they got screwed over more than Green Bay did that fateful night in 2012. And Chiefs fans? They could serve as a catalyst for another rule change that's arguably just as important.

2019 NFL Championship Weekend Preview

It was another chaotic week at work, so I’m late getting these on record. But Adam just got me his picks, so we’re back to pick the conference championship games!

Formatting edits have been made to this post after the fact for readability. No changes have been made to the predictions.

2019 NFL Divisional Preview

It was a week full of chaos and a relatively heavy workload. And in Adam's case, being in a state of mourning and/or anger at Cody Parkey, so we're scrambling to get our Divisional Round previews up before kickoff!

We had a so-so Wild Card weekend, with Adam taking a narrow lead overall. But now the stakes are higher as the top two teams from each conference will make their 2018 postseason debuts this weekend.

Once again, below Adam and I will each have a little more in-depth analysis of the games this weekend and our final score picks, which will count as picks both straight up and against the spread.

Let's get to it!

2018 NFC South Preview

Happy Labor Day! I'm not taking a full break on the holiday with the NFL season just three days away. This means you have just three days to get in on the annual COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em contest. Thursday morning the weekly series will be renewed as Adam Quinn and I return to picking games against the spread and taking potshots at anyone and everyone.

But in the meantime, there are still three more divisions to preview, and today we're looking at maybe the deepest in the league in the NFC South.

2018 NFL Divisional Preview

Twelve teams entered, and now only eight remain in the hunt for the Lombardi Trophy. I've missed out on a quest to hit 11-0 against the spread and straight up. Clearly this is my punishment for correctly guessing the score of Super Bowl XLIII.

I did a decent job picking in the Wild Card round, getting three of the four winners, though underdogs ruled the day in terms of the point spread, leaving me 2-2 in that regard. We'll see what ends up happening this time, as historically the bye favors the home teams to the tune of a nearly 3 in 4 chance of advancing to the conference championship round.

So without further ado, let's look at the matchups for this weekend.

2018 NFL Wild Card Preview

I had a mediocre performance in the finale of the 2017 Pigskin Pick 'Em, which was enough to get me to .500, but not enough to overcome Adam catching fire to win the contest. Kudos to him. And now, my attention turns to the NFL playoffs.

It's weird following a playoff that doesn't have my Packers in them, something that hasn't happened since I was a sophomore in college. I'm old.

But even with them not in, we've still got 11 exciting games on tap, and I want to make sure I get a look at them all. I'll go a little more in depth than we did for the Pigskin Pick 'Em contest, but come the Super Bowl I'm hoping Adam and I will have our usual prop bets thing again.

In the meantime, here's a look at the four games coming up this weekend.

2017 NFC South Preview

Happy Friday and Happy September! We're celebrating by moving on to the second half of our NFL prediction series for 2017.

I've worked my way down to the south now as I go division by division picking how I think the season will go. So far, only one wild card has been claimed, and that was yesterday in the AFC, so there are still plenty of spots up for grabs.

Speaking of spots up for grabs, there are plenty of those still in my annual Pigskin Pick 'Em contest. Adam Quinn will join me once again starting next week as we pick every game against the spread. You can join us here.

Let's take a look at the NFC South.

2016 NFC South Preview

We're onto the second half of our NFL predictions for the upcoming season. I'm on track to finish these up by Wednesday, giving me a day to spare and do Week 1 picks.

I'm going around in a clockwise circle of sorts, going division by division with my picks and alternating conferences daily. Today, we're onto the South divisions, and we start again with the NFC.

Before I preview this division, one more time I want to make a shameless plug for the weekly picks. I will be joined again this year by Adam Quinn, who beat me handily last season and is returning to defend his crown. If you want to try to beat us, you can join our ESPN Pigskin Pick 'Em group.

Without further ado, here's our preview.

2015 NFC South Preview

It is finally that time. We're just 11 days away from the start of the NFL season. It's been a long time coming with a lot of fun stuff in between, but there's just something exciting about fall rolling around and the sense in the air of the approach of football.

Over the span of the next few days, on days where I am not doing posts about college football (aka setting up the Death to the BCS Playoffs), I will go through one division at a time and preview what I think will end up happening. Like I do with all my preseason previews, I save the division with the defending champ for last, and work backwards from there.

For more previews, you can check out my friends at UKEndZone, where I will once again be contributing as well during the season. There are a lot of other great football minds on the site as well who have some great viewpoints on various topics, and I encourage you to check them out.

Also, for the fourth straight season I will be picking NFL games against the spread, and for the second year in a row, my friend Adam Quinn will be joining me in these endeavors. Last year I barely beat him in a contest that came down to the final week, so he'll be trying to take the throne again this season. If you are interested in joining us, you can join for free in our ESPN Pigskin Pick 'Em group.

With that out of the way, let's get to our previews. I'm kicking things off with the NFC South this year.

NFC South

Common opponents on schedule: NFC East, AFC South

1. Carolina Panthers
2014: 7-8-1 (1st), lost in Divisional Round
This division is probably the weakest in football again, and even the Panthers took a hit from last year. Cam Newton is still around and a threat, Jonathan Stewart is now the go-to back, and there are some weapons still in place for Newton to throw to, even with the loss of Kelvin Benjamin. The defense isn't bad this year either, though I do wonder about the secondary. Adding Charles Tillman, while he's up there in years, is still a decent move to bolster the back end, and I'm not concerned about the front. Having a fairly easy schedule overall helps them too to win the division for a third straight year.
2015 Prediction: 9-7

2. New Orleans Saints
2014: 7-9 (2nd), missed playoffs
Drew Brees is out his favorite weapon with the Jimmy Graham trade, but he still has plenty of toys to work with. Marques Colston and Brandin Cooks make for a decent 1-2 punch at receiver, and while Benjamin Watson is a definite downgrade at tight end, he's still not terrible and has a very good quarterback throwing to him. We'll probably see more of a reliance on the running backs this year though, with Mark Ingram seemingly poised to take a star role in the offense, while C.J. Spiller can break some big gains on the outside. New Orleans also got one of the big defections of the offseason with the Brandon Browner signing. If he's healthy, he can really be an asset to their secondary. I think the Saints will be fine this year, and after a long drought, I see them back in the postseason.
2015 Prediction: 9-7, Wild Card

3. Atlanta Falcons
2014: 6-10 (3rd), missed playoffs
Atlanta has been having some protection issues with their offensive line during the preseason, and while I'm sure at some point they will get solved, I doubt it will be in time to save their season. Matt Ryan is still a good quarterback, and he has two elite weapons to go to in Julio Jones, who just signed a new contact, and Roddy White. The big question for them, obviously, is if both can stay healthy. If they can, they might overachieve. On defense, Vic Beasley is an intriguing first round starter at defensive end, and new coach Dan Quinn will be a boon to this defense, but I don't think they can catch the top teams of this division, at least not this year.
2015 Prediction: 6-10

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2014: 2-14 (4th), missed playoffs
I'll go on record and say this: I think Jameis Winston is overrated. Yes, he has a good arm and the talent to play quarterback in the NFL, but I don't like his off-the-field reputation, and he has that tendency to throw picks at bad times. He's a definite upgrade over what Tampa had last year at the position though, and he's got weapons in Vincent Jackson and Mike Evans. Problem is, I don't like their defense. Gerald McCoy is a good piece at defensive tackle, and their linebacking corps is okay, but their defense as a whole has too many former Bears who weren't even that good in Chicago. Major Wright? Khaseem Greene? Henry Melton? Chris Conte?! The Bucs will be better than they were last season, but there's still some building that needs to be done.
2015 Prediction: 6-10

I'll be back at the preview game tomorrow with a look at the AFC South.

NFC South Preview

We're back at it this morning, a little earlier since I'm back at the office. I'm up against the clock, so I'm working to get all of my NFL previews up in time for the season to start in 10 days. With the college season starting up this week, I have to get those posts in too, so I'll have a break from the NFL tomorrow before getting back to it on Wednesday.

I'm still taking people who want to pick games against the spread this NFL season in the COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em contest. Follow the link above if you want to join in. It's free, and you can see if you're smarter (or luckier, since a lot of this is a crapshoot) than someone who thinks he knows a ton about sports.

With that out of the way, let's get to the preview. Today, we look at the NFC South.

Common opponents on schedule: NFC North, AFC North

1. New Orleans Saints
2013: 11-5 (2nd), lost in NFC Divisional Round
Somehow this defense gave up the second fewest passing yards per game in the league last season, and they arguably only got better, adding Jairus Byrd at safety and getting a little veteran depth with Champ Bailey at corner. They'll be good again this year probably, but the bigger threat is obviously this offense. A list of the best receivers in the NFL likely won't have Marques Colston, Kenny Stills or Robert Meachem too close to the top, the fact that they play with Drew Brees elevates them another level. Overall, this is a division that always seems to avoid repeat winners, so I'm picking the Saints to reclaim their throne this year.
2014 Prediction: 11-5

2. Carolina Panthers
2013: 12-4 (1st), lost in NFC Divisional Round
This team had a reversal of fortune in close games thanks to the timely arrival of Riverboat Ron. I figure some regression to the mean will happen this year. The defense remains solid, especially with Luke Kuechly at the center of it all. The problem here this year though will likely be on offense. Deangelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart aren't getting any younger, and as much as Cam Newton is turning into a really good quarterback, he really doesn't have anyone to throw to with Steve Smith's departure. This team will still be pretty good overall, but not like last year.
2014 Prediction: 9-7

3. Atlanta Falcons
2013: 4-12 (T-3rd), missed playoffs
The Falcons were arguably the unluckiest team in the NFL last year. Roddy White and Julio Jones combined for 104 catches and 14 missed games in 2013 (Jones missed the final 11 games of the year). Both should be back this season to help Matt Ryan out, but where he really needs help is the offensive line. Ryan got killed back there last year (sacked 44 times), and has already lost left tackle Sam Baker for the year. On the other side, this group was gashed by opposing running games all year. While they added some depth on defense this year, it's hard to say how much they'll improve. With better luck, they'll improve on a bad 2013.
2014 Prediction: 7-9

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2013: 4-12 (T-3rd), missed playoffs
Bad news this year: I can't make fun of Greg Schiano. Good news this year: I can make fun of Lovie Smith again. Either Josh McCown or Mike Glennon will start at quarterback, which should improve the worst passing attack of 2013. Defensively, this was an average squad last year. Lovie's presence will almost certainly improve that, though this squad isn't quite the caliber of what he had back during his tenure with the Bears. Tampa is on the way back up, but in this division, I'm not sure how good they'll be.
2014 Prediction: 5-11

Wednesday we head east... or a little north I guess, when you look at the geography. The AFC East is next, following tomorrow's look at the opening week of college football.

We'll Raise Our Voices High

For most of the fall the attention on college football is focused on the schools with several thousand students, not always remembering that there is legitimate talent at the lower levels... even NFL-caliber talent. For someone like me who has spent 5 years paying attention to a North Central team run the gauntlet of the CCIW, I've seen some very talented teams with some exceptional athletes. I remember a 2010 game where I saw scouts from a couple teams (the Jets and I don't remember who else) come to see us in action.

Last year I was hopeful that defensive beast Matt Wenger would get a call to join an NFL roster, dreams that sadly went unfulfilled. But I remember seeing a tweet in the fall from Mel Kiper of all people touting some underrated players, including NCC's Kyle Fiedorowicz.

I did some digging today to look into North Central's history regarding the NFL, and it's not very extensive. In all, there have been 4 players that spent at least part of their college careers in Naperville, and most of their NFL careers were short. Historically:

• Ron Selesky (1987): Center. Played 2 NFL games.
• Levert Carr (1969-73): OL/DL. Played 55 NFL games, starting all 14 games for Buffalo in 1971.
• Jim Avery (1966, also attended Northern Illinois): Tight end. Played 1 NFL game.
• Bus Mertes (1945-48?, also attended Iowa): Multiple positions. Ran for 1277 yards and 6 touchdowns, caught 19 passes for 182 yards and 2 touchdowns.

Not an illustrious list by any means, but there's some history there. And for Kyle Fiedorowicz, he may have a chance to contribute to an NFL team, being invited to the New Orleans Saints' rookie minicamp.

Looking at the unofficial depth chart for the Saints, there are only 2 tight ends, and David Thomas is a decent #2 guy behind this Jimmy Graham fellow. If there's an open roster spot, I don't think it's beyond reason to think the Kyle could make the squad. The Saints play 5 preseason games including the Hall of Fame game, so there's certainly opportunities for Kyle to showcase what he can do. I know the Saints mainly spread it out with Drew Brees, but they may have to consider splitting guys out, especially if you put Kyle and Jimmy Graham out there at the same time. Graham by himself is a matchup nightmare, but at 6'6", Kyle himself is hard to miss either. He could slip through some cracks in the defense, and he has decent speed (can run a sub-5 second 40, officially his best time was a 4.88). I remember a game in 2010 against Millikin where he slipped behind the defense, caught a pass, and was gone, prompting an excited "Kyle Fiedorowicz to the house!" call from me on WONC (go to the 1:03:30 mark for the call). In that pass-happy attack, he could potentially thrive.

Say what you will about the Saints following the bounty scandal. I'm a Packers fan, so I fear and respect the Saints as a rival NFC contender. But I will try to pay attention to their games this season and pull for a talented kid from a D-III school to put Naperville on the map again. Good luck Kyle!