2020 NFL Preview

 

Fear not, Confessions of a Sportscaster is back from hiatus!

The COVID-19 pandemic threw a huge monkey wrench into the world of sports that... I'm still not totally over. I kind of feel bad that I haven't written anything since feeling compelled to address a race issue on North Central's campus, but for a long time there wasn't anything to watch except for old sporting events. Then the NBA and NHL set up some bubbles and got started, which I took in some of.

But now the NFL season is upon us, and by some miracle (and largely timing of everything) the season appears to be going on as planned, with the only difference being a ton of empty stadiums for the time being.

So it's time to get back into the swing of things. With the college football season largely in shambles even though some FBS conferences are playing on as if nothing is happening, this means we won't see a 2020 Death to the BCS Playoffs, though I still have to simulate through the 2019 iteration. I have ideas for a pseudo-Tournament of Champions for the Death to the BCS Playoffs of the past that, time permitting, I may try to undertake. But more importantly... the COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em contest is back for its ninth season as I try to maintain even year magic and retake my crown from Adam.

So with that in mind, I need to power through some NFL previews. Last year I condensed the eight posts, one for each division, down to two. This year I'm cutting it down to one and cutting back because I haven't paid a ton of attention to preseason training camps, and without preseason games or anything, it's hard to get a read on some things. But even so, I'm willing to put my neck out there and make predictions that almost certainly will go wrong.

2019 NFC Preview

With the NFL season just days away, I figure it's time to get on the preview train!

I'm doing this a little bit differently compared to prior years. In the past I've done a post for each division, and I used to do one a day for eight days leading up to the season. This year I'm condensing it down from divisions to one post for each of the two conferences. It will make these posts a little bit longer, so I'll try to keep my thoughts about the individual teams brief.

Part of the reason I'm condensing this down is due to time; I think it's easier to build out two long posts especially given when I had a chance to sit down and write this out. But I'm also doing this because in talks with Adam we may have another NFL preview feature coming to lead up to my favorite series in Confessions of a Sportscaster: the Pigskin Pick 'Em contest.

For now, let's take a look at the NFC.

2018 NFC South Preview

Happy Labor Day! I'm not taking a full break on the holiday with the NFL season just three days away. This means you have just three days to get in on the annual COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em contest. Thursday morning the weekly series will be renewed as Adam Quinn and I return to picking games against the spread and taking potshots at anyone and everyone.

But in the meantime, there are still three more divisions to preview, and today we're looking at maybe the deepest in the league in the NFC South.

2017 NFC South Preview

Happy Friday and Happy September! We're celebrating by moving on to the second half of our NFL prediction series for 2017.

I've worked my way down to the south now as I go division by division picking how I think the season will go. So far, only one wild card has been claimed, and that was yesterday in the AFC, so there are still plenty of spots up for grabs.

Speaking of spots up for grabs, there are plenty of those still in my annual Pigskin Pick 'Em contest. Adam Quinn will join me once again starting next week as we pick every game against the spread. You can join us here.

Let's take a look at the NFC South.

2016 NFC South Preview

We're onto the second half of our NFL predictions for the upcoming season. I'm on track to finish these up by Wednesday, giving me a day to spare and do Week 1 picks.

I'm going around in a clockwise circle of sorts, going division by division with my picks and alternating conferences daily. Today, we're onto the South divisions, and we start again with the NFC.

Before I preview this division, one more time I want to make a shameless plug for the weekly picks. I will be joined again this year by Adam Quinn, who beat me handily last season and is returning to defend his crown. If you want to try to beat us, you can join our ESPN Pigskin Pick 'Em group.

Without further ado, here's our preview.

2015 NFC South Preview

It is finally that time. We're just 11 days away from the start of the NFL season. It's been a long time coming with a lot of fun stuff in between, but there's just something exciting about fall rolling around and the sense in the air of the approach of football.

Over the span of the next few days, on days where I am not doing posts about college football (aka setting up the Death to the BCS Playoffs), I will go through one division at a time and preview what I think will end up happening. Like I do with all my preseason previews, I save the division with the defending champ for last, and work backwards from there.

For more previews, you can check out my friends at UKEndZone, where I will once again be contributing as well during the season. There are a lot of other great football minds on the site as well who have some great viewpoints on various topics, and I encourage you to check them out.

Also, for the fourth straight season I will be picking NFL games against the spread, and for the second year in a row, my friend Adam Quinn will be joining me in these endeavors. Last year I barely beat him in a contest that came down to the final week, so he'll be trying to take the throne again this season. If you are interested in joining us, you can join for free in our ESPN Pigskin Pick 'Em group.

With that out of the way, let's get to our previews. I'm kicking things off with the NFC South this year.

NFC South

Common opponents on schedule: NFC East, AFC South

1. Carolina Panthers
2014: 7-8-1 (1st), lost in Divisional Round
This division is probably the weakest in football again, and even the Panthers took a hit from last year. Cam Newton is still around and a threat, Jonathan Stewart is now the go-to back, and there are some weapons still in place for Newton to throw to, even with the loss of Kelvin Benjamin. The defense isn't bad this year either, though I do wonder about the secondary. Adding Charles Tillman, while he's up there in years, is still a decent move to bolster the back end, and I'm not concerned about the front. Having a fairly easy schedule overall helps them too to win the division for a third straight year.
2015 Prediction: 9-7

2. New Orleans Saints
2014: 7-9 (2nd), missed playoffs
Drew Brees is out his favorite weapon with the Jimmy Graham trade, but he still has plenty of toys to work with. Marques Colston and Brandin Cooks make for a decent 1-2 punch at receiver, and while Benjamin Watson is a definite downgrade at tight end, he's still not terrible and has a very good quarterback throwing to him. We'll probably see more of a reliance on the running backs this year though, with Mark Ingram seemingly poised to take a star role in the offense, while C.J. Spiller can break some big gains on the outside. New Orleans also got one of the big defections of the offseason with the Brandon Browner signing. If he's healthy, he can really be an asset to their secondary. I think the Saints will be fine this year, and after a long drought, I see them back in the postseason.
2015 Prediction: 9-7, Wild Card

3. Atlanta Falcons
2014: 6-10 (3rd), missed playoffs
Atlanta has been having some protection issues with their offensive line during the preseason, and while I'm sure at some point they will get solved, I doubt it will be in time to save their season. Matt Ryan is still a good quarterback, and he has two elite weapons to go to in Julio Jones, who just signed a new contact, and Roddy White. The big question for them, obviously, is if both can stay healthy. If they can, they might overachieve. On defense, Vic Beasley is an intriguing first round starter at defensive end, and new coach Dan Quinn will be a boon to this defense, but I don't think they can catch the top teams of this division, at least not this year.
2015 Prediction: 6-10

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2014: 2-14 (4th), missed playoffs
I'll go on record and say this: I think Jameis Winston is overrated. Yes, he has a good arm and the talent to play quarterback in the NFL, but I don't like his off-the-field reputation, and he has that tendency to throw picks at bad times. He's a definite upgrade over what Tampa had last year at the position though, and he's got weapons in Vincent Jackson and Mike Evans. Problem is, I don't like their defense. Gerald McCoy is a good piece at defensive tackle, and their linebacking corps is okay, but their defense as a whole has too many former Bears who weren't even that good in Chicago. Major Wright? Khaseem Greene? Henry Melton? Chris Conte?! The Bucs will be better than they were last season, but there's still some building that needs to be done.
2015 Prediction: 6-10

I'll be back at the preview game tomorrow with a look at the AFC South.

NFC South Preview

We're back at it this morning, a little earlier since I'm back at the office. I'm up against the clock, so I'm working to get all of my NFL previews up in time for the season to start in 10 days. With the college season starting up this week, I have to get those posts in too, so I'll have a break from the NFL tomorrow before getting back to it on Wednesday.

I'm still taking people who want to pick games against the spread this NFL season in the COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em contest. Follow the link above if you want to join in. It's free, and you can see if you're smarter (or luckier, since a lot of this is a crapshoot) than someone who thinks he knows a ton about sports.

With that out of the way, let's get to the preview. Today, we look at the NFC South.

Common opponents on schedule: NFC North, AFC North

1. New Orleans Saints
2013: 11-5 (2nd), lost in NFC Divisional Round
Somehow this defense gave up the second fewest passing yards per game in the league last season, and they arguably only got better, adding Jairus Byrd at safety and getting a little veteran depth with Champ Bailey at corner. They'll be good again this year probably, but the bigger threat is obviously this offense. A list of the best receivers in the NFL likely won't have Marques Colston, Kenny Stills or Robert Meachem too close to the top, the fact that they play with Drew Brees elevates them another level. Overall, this is a division that always seems to avoid repeat winners, so I'm picking the Saints to reclaim their throne this year.
2014 Prediction: 11-5

2. Carolina Panthers
2013: 12-4 (1st), lost in NFC Divisional Round
This team had a reversal of fortune in close games thanks to the timely arrival of Riverboat Ron. I figure some regression to the mean will happen this year. The defense remains solid, especially with Luke Kuechly at the center of it all. The problem here this year though will likely be on offense. Deangelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart aren't getting any younger, and as much as Cam Newton is turning into a really good quarterback, he really doesn't have anyone to throw to with Steve Smith's departure. This team will still be pretty good overall, but not like last year.
2014 Prediction: 9-7

3. Atlanta Falcons
2013: 4-12 (T-3rd), missed playoffs
The Falcons were arguably the unluckiest team in the NFL last year. Roddy White and Julio Jones combined for 104 catches and 14 missed games in 2013 (Jones missed the final 11 games of the year). Both should be back this season to help Matt Ryan out, but where he really needs help is the offensive line. Ryan got killed back there last year (sacked 44 times), and has already lost left tackle Sam Baker for the year. On the other side, this group was gashed by opposing running games all year. While they added some depth on defense this year, it's hard to say how much they'll improve. With better luck, they'll improve on a bad 2013.
2014 Prediction: 7-9

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2013: 4-12 (T-3rd), missed playoffs
Bad news this year: I can't make fun of Greg Schiano. Good news this year: I can make fun of Lovie Smith again. Either Josh McCown or Mike Glennon will start at quarterback, which should improve the worst passing attack of 2013. Defensively, this was an average squad last year. Lovie's presence will almost certainly improve that, though this squad isn't quite the caliber of what he had back during his tenure with the Bears. Tampa is on the way back up, but in this division, I'm not sure how good they'll be.
2014 Prediction: 5-11

Wednesday we head east... or a little north I guess, when you look at the geography. The AFC East is next, following tomorrow's look at the opening week of college football.

NFC South Preview

After a day off from the NFL to focus on trying to single out the 29 sniveling cowards at the FBS level (don't worry, I'll probably end up singling out just about everyone else by the time the season is over) I'm back to the focus of the level of football I love more.

Today we're back in the NFC South, which has been a seesaw the last few years at the top. Everyone has won the division at least once since 2002, though Tampa has the longest drought. I'm sticking to that seesaw theory in my picks for how this division stacks up.

Common opponents on schedule: NFC West, AFC East

1. New Orleans Saints
Last year: 7-9 (3rd), missed playoffs
The biggest addition this offseason was the return of Sean Payton from his punishment for Bountygate. Ultimately this will be a boon with Drew Brees back to do Drew Brees things again, and his top weapons remain. On defense, they're switching to a 3-4 now, so it's a totally different scheme from what they've been running. I'm not sure how much of a difference it will make though. After giving up the most yards and second-most points in the league last season, I wonder if they'll be able to fix that problem (in 2011, they gave up the 9th most yards and were in the middle of the pack in scoring defense). I think Brees has enough firepower to give the Saints the division now with Payton back, but that defense will bring them back down to earth some.
2013 Prediction: 11-5

2. Atlanta Falcons
Last year: 13-3 (1st), lost in NFC Championship Game
The Falcons let stud running back Michael Turner go in the offseason but replaced him with Steven Jackson, so they'll still have a ground game. Matt Ryan was good last year and finally won a playoff game, so that monkey is off his back. He still has his top 3 receiving targets in Tony Gonzalez, Julio Jones, and an insensitive idiot who needs to learn to shut his mouth/stay off Twitter and actually watch legal proceedings before making judgments, especially ones that call for people to kill themselves. Scumbag. Anyway, the big thing that gives me pause about this Falcons team was the sort of voodoo magic they seemed to have at home. Their luck in close games last year is bound to come back down, even if just a tad. They'll be back in the playoffs, just not as the division winner.
2013 Prediction: 10-6, Wild Card

3. Carolina Panthers
Last year: 7-9 (2nd), missed playoffs
Cam Newton continues to develop, so Year 3 should see continued improvement from him. They had a respectable defense last year too that should only get better with guys like Star Lotulelei. The Panthers also had terrible luck in close games, so based on the same premise as Atlanta, regression to the mean is probably due here. Not enough to get them in the playoffs, but I think these guys are headed in the right direction.
2013 Prediction: 8-8

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Last year: 7-9 (4th), missed playoffs
I've been pretty high on Josh Freeman over the years, but I'm not sure I can trust him anymore. He's too inconsistent. He can have stretches like last year where he looked amazing, but then follow that up with several clunkers. They did address their biggest need in pass defense by trading for Darelle Revis, and Doug Martin will be able to run for a lot of yards this year. The question is whether or not that defense can stop anyone from throwing at will, and can Freeman have a year like he did in 2010. I'm not convinced.
2013 Prediction: 5-11

I'm going to put in some weekend work and be back tomorrow with a look at the AFC South.

NFC South Preview

For the NFC East Preview, click here.
For the AFC East Preview, click here.

We're a day away from the first games of the last week of the preseason. One last look at your fringe guys to round out the roster and be prepared to go into battle for a Super Bowl. We continue the swing around the country now by visiting the NFC South.


NFC South
Common opponents on schedule: NFC East, AFC West

1. Atlanta Falcons
2011 Record: 10-6, lost in NFC Wild Card round

Historically, the NFC South has been a constant changing of the guard. Since its formation in 2002, no team has ever successfully defended its division championship, and each team has won the division at least twice. That's the parity that the NFL is known for, and part of the reason why I feel the Falcons can get back on top of the division this year. They also have the personnel to get back on top this year. This is a very good offense even though Matt Ryan hasn't won a playoff game. He has legitimate weapons in Roddy White and Julio Jones, not to mention veterans Michael Turner and Tony Gonzalez. A pretty tough home environment also helps. I'm not 100% sold on this defense, but I think they can do enough to win the division.

2. New Orleans Saints*
2011 Record: 13-3, lost in NFC Divisional round

I'm disappointed that despite being invited to their minicamp, Kyle Fiedorowicz did not get any further looks this offseason and is not on an NFL roster. If nothing else, he does get the honor of being in Madden '13. Not that Drew Brees needed another huge tight end when he's got Jimmy Graham to throw to all day, or a slew of wide receivers who helped give Brees the single season yardage record last season. Their defense did take a bit of a hit due to free agent departures as well as suspensions (the legitimacy of which is up for debate, but I don't really have an official stance on it). The biggest hit and the biggest reason why I don't have the Saints winning the division is the absence of Sean Payton from the sidelines. He's unquestionably one of the best coaches in the league and that open seat they're leaving everywhere for him like he's dead will be a huge obstacle for them to overcome, though I still think they take one of the wild cards (denoted by the asterisk).

3. Carolina Panthers
2011 Record: 6-10, missed playoffs

This is one of the better dual-threat offensive teams you'll see in the league. That DeAngelo Williams/Jonathan Stewart (assuming Stewart is healthy) combination is a deadly threat on the ground, and Steve Smith had a resurgent 2011 season. Rumor has it that top 2011 pick Cam Newton is a large reason as to why. He may suffer a bit of a sophomore slump as many do, but with a year of NFL experience under his belt this team can continue to grow. Jon Beason and Luke Kuechly will solidify this defense, and while these guys may not be in the playoff picture come November, this will be a fun team to watch and someone to look out for within the next couple years.

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2011 Record: 4-12, missed playoffs

They were able to lure Vincent Jackson away from San Diego and have some talent on the defensive side of the ball, but I'm discouraged by the way Josh Freeman regressed last year. Maybe it was an off year, but while I think he'll move back towards his 2010 season I don't think he'll be quite as good. It doesn't help that he doesn't have much in the way of support on offense beyond Jackson (Blount is a pretty good runner, but I wouldn't call him great by any stretch) and the talent level in the rest of the division is just too much. Keep reloading and wait another year. Or get Jon Gruden to call 6 yard slants on every down.

Tomorrow we'll have the AFC South preview as well as a special feature. It only took me just under a year to get to 100 posts on Confessions of a Sportscaster. That's got to count for something, right?