2016 NCAA Playoff Points: Week 3

Here's where analyzing results in college football starts to get fun.

We have three weeks of data to work with now, and as teams start to play more of their schedules, we can know a little better just how good a team is. Last week's numbers were pretty basic, but that's how it always is when you only have two games off of which to base your analysis. Three isn't a lot better, but it will allow us to start to see a difference between teams form.

You can view that prior post or the season preview post to get an idea of how Playoff Points are calculated. Below you will see a ranking of each conference as well as the four independent teams grouped together to see how they're doing.


American Athletic
Wins: 2.00 (T-2nd)
PP1: 1.08 (6th)
PP2: 0.10 (11th)
aPP: 0.92 (4th)

ACC
Wins: 2.00 (T-2nd)
PP1: 1.43 (5th)
PP2: 0.29 (6th)
aPP: 0.79 (5th)

Big Ten
Wins: 2.14 (1st)
PP1: 1.86 (2nd)
PP2: 0.21 (7th)
aPP: 1.50 (2nd)

Big XII
Wins: 1.60 (7th)
PP1: 1.00 (7th)
PP2: 0.43 (4th)
aPP: 0.10 (7th)

Conference USA
Wins: 1.08 (11th)
PP1: 0.23 (11th)
PP2: 0.14 (8th)
aPP: -0.92 (11th)

Independents
Wins: 1.50 (T-8th)
PP1: 1.50 (4th)
PP2: 0.33 (5th)
aPP: 0.50 (6th)

MAC
Wins: 1.50 (T-8th)
PP1: 0.75 (9th)
PP2: 0.11 (10th)
aPP: -0.33 (8th)

Mountain West
Wins: 1.67 (6th)
PP1: 0.50 (10th)
PP2: 0.13 (9th)
aPP: -0.50 (10th)

Pac-12
Wins: 2.00 (T-2nd)
PP1: 1.75 (3rd)
PP2: 0.44 (3rd)
aPP: 1.42 (3rd)

SEC
Wins: 2.00 (T-2nd)
PP1: 2.29 (1st)
PP2: 0.93 (1st)
aPP: 1.71 (1st)

Sun Belt
Wins: 1.18 (10th)
PP1: 0.82 (8th)
PP2: 0.48 (2nd)
aPP: -0.36 (9th)

To see the updated spreadsheet, click here.

Photo by Jeffrey Becker (USA TODAY Sports)

I'm part of a vocal minority that thinks there is an SEC bias inherent in some of the polling, but to a degree, the bias is deserved, as evidenced by the SEC leading all of the metrics except wins. The Big Ten and Pac-12 are also in good shape, while Conference USA might be on track to send the 16 seed to the Death to the BCS Playoffs.


Looking at some of the individual schools leading the various categories, Nebraska leads the country in First Degree Playoff Points through three weeks with five, while six schools are tied for second just a point behind the Huskers. In terms of Second Degree Playoff Points, Mississippi State, of all teams, has three points to lead the nation thanks to their lone win being over South Carolina, who is tied for second with two points along with... South Alabama. The Adjusted Playoff Points metric has the same leaders due to their status as undefeated teams not resulting in a subtraction of points, and to no surprise there are a fairly large share of teams in the negatives with this score, led by Iowa State at negative six points. The Cyclones are getting hammered after losing their opener against Northern Iowa, who have proceeded to lose their next two games, and because losses to FCS teams are penalized double, they might end up bringing up the rear the rest of the season unless they can beat Kansas or something. I like this penalty, and Iowa fans should too because their loss to North Dakota State should mean nothing in terms of this metric because the Bison are a dynasty of Giant Killers.


There are still far too many undefeated teams left in the FBS level to even start thinking about mock brackets. Since I started doing those in their own posts two seasons ago, we've got at least three weeks before the field will be whittled down enough for me to not leave out any unbeatens. In the meantime, I will continue to measure these metrics every Monday, while Tuesdays will continue to be my look at the upcoming week's schedule and how it impacts the NCSS metric. Check back tomorrow for the Week 4 update!