2020 NFL Preview

 

Fear not, Confessions of a Sportscaster is back from hiatus!

The COVID-19 pandemic threw a huge monkey wrench into the world of sports that... I'm still not totally over. I kind of feel bad that I haven't written anything since feeling compelled to address a race issue on North Central's campus, but for a long time there wasn't anything to watch except for old sporting events. Then the NBA and NHL set up some bubbles and got started, which I took in some of.

But now the NFL season is upon us, and by some miracle (and largely timing of everything) the season appears to be going on as planned, with the only difference being a ton of empty stadiums for the time being.

So it's time to get back into the swing of things. With the college football season largely in shambles even though some FBS conferences are playing on as if nothing is happening, this means we won't see a 2020 Death to the BCS Playoffs, though I still have to simulate through the 2019 iteration. I have ideas for a pseudo-Tournament of Champions for the Death to the BCS Playoffs of the past that, time permitting, I may try to undertake. But more importantly... the COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em contest is back for its ninth season as I try to maintain even year magic and retake my crown from Adam.

So with that in mind, I need to power through some NFL previews. Last year I condensed the eight posts, one for each division, down to two. This year I'm cutting it down to one and cutting back because I haven't paid a ton of attention to preseason training camps, and without preseason games or anything, it's hard to get a read on some things. But even so, I'm willing to put my neck out there and make predictions that almost certainly will go wrong.

2019 AFC Preview

We're just two days away from the start of the 100th NFL season, which means I have to finish up my preview series!

Yesterday I tackled the NFC as I condensed everything down for this season into two posts instead of eight. As I've done in years past, I will still do a little bit of a dive into each team along with my prediction for their season. At the end I will reveal my full playoff picture for the AFC.

You also have a couple days to get into the annual Confessions of a Sportscaster Pigskin Pick 'Em contest! Adam and I are renewing this feature for its sixth year (eighth overall going back to the origins of this), so check back here every week for our picks against the spread!

Without further ado or shameless plugging, let's look at the AFC.

2018 AFC West Preview

We're onto Day 3 of my series of NFL previews, and we're working our way counterclockwise around the country as we go division by division.

Over the last couple days I've taken a look at the two North divisions, and by the time we hit the middle of next week I will have made my predictions for the entire league. We're swapping back to the AFC today, and this time we're looking out west as we'll eventually circle our way back to the division holding our defending champion.

2017 AFC West Preview

We've made it to the end of August, which means football season is almost here! As such, I'm well underway in my set of previews for the upcoming season.

I've spent the last few days going division by division, rounding my way around the country before ultimately ending in the division of the defending champion. After today, we'll be halfway home.

With a week until the start of the NFL season, there is still time to get in on picking NFL games against the spread. Adam Quinn will join me once again in a weekly feature where we'll pick the games, and you can join our fun here.

Let's get on to the preview.

2016 AFC West Preview

After a week of going around the league, we've finally come to the end. The NFL season officially kicks off tomorrow as we seek to crown a new Super Bowl champion.

As has been my tradition, I've alternated conferences and worked my way around the country until I close with the division that houses the defending champion. That means I close with the AFC West and the defending champion Broncos.

So, one final time, if you're looking for something else to do this football season in addition to rooting for your team and your fantasy players, you can join my and Adam Quinn's ESPN Pigskin Pick 'Em group. We will have our Week 1 picks available for you tomorrow.

So with that out of the way, let's finish this off.

2015 AFC West Preview

We're just one week away from the start of the NFL season! I can taste it!

Today I'm officially at the halfway point of my NFL previews, as I go division by division. So far, three of my four wild card picks are in. Will my fourth come today?

If you want to read a little more in-depth previews on NFL teams, you can check out the work of my colleagues over at UKEndZone. They're also going division by division, and are doing a fantastic job. If your interest lies more with picking games against the spread, I do have that option available to you as well: you can join a group with myself and Adam Quinn, who will be picking games weekly with me in an attempt to overthrow me. He almost did last year. This year my dad and Grabbing the Bull Horns blogger Geoffrey Clark (our defending champion, actually) will also be joining us, though we haven't discussed anything about him writing up picks with Adam and I. We'll see.

Let's take a look at the AFC West.

AFC West

Common opponents on schedule: AFC North, NFC North

1. Denver Broncos
2014: 12-4 (1st), lost in AFC Divisional Game
At this point, I think we can say Peyton Manning is on the downswing of his career, but his slight decline still makes him one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. I'm also not sold on his supporting cast as much this year: he still has Demaryius Thomas as his top target as well as Emmanuel Sanders, but the depth that has been there the last couple years isn't there. He does have a decent running game with C.J. Anderson as well, so offensively, they'll probably be fine. They've got good pass rushers on defense still with Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware, and they're solid at corner with Aqib Talib and Chris Harris. I can't guarantee anything in January, but the Broncos will be there.
2015 Prediction: 12-4

2. San Diego Chargers
2014: 9-7 (T-2nd), missed playoffs
San Diego was in the mix late last season before just missing out on the postseason, but they bring back much of their talent on offense. Antonio Gates will miss the first four games to suspension, but Phillip Rivers has other targets to work with in Malcom Floyd and Keenan Allen, while there's a decent ground game with Branden Oliver and rookie Melvin Gordon as well as Danny Woodhead for pass catching. Their defense is okay, but not really notable in any way, though they'll keep the team in the hunt. I just don't think they'll have quite enough again this year, falling just short of the postseason for a second straight year.
2015 Prediction: 9-7

3. Kansas City Chiefs
2014: 9-7 (T-2nd), missed playoffs
Kansas City also did pretty well last year but also just missed the playoffs. After a first in the modern era: a season with no touchdown passes to wide receivers, that will probably change with Jeremy Maclin in town. While Alex Smith is a decent quarterback, the offense still revolves around Jamaal Charles. On defense, there's still a lot of talent here led by Tamba Hali, Justin Houston and Dontari Poe, but I'm not really sold on the secondary. This team will be okay, but not great.
2015 Prediction: 8-8

4. Oakland Raiders
2014: 3-13 (4th), missed playoffs
Ah, Oakland... We are starting to see a foundation with Derek Carr at quarterback, and now he has legitimate targets to throw to in Michael Crabtree and rookie Amari Cooper. Latavius Murray will be a decent running back, but let's remember that this is a young offense, so there will be some growing pains. The defense got a bit of an upgrade with Justin Tuck to anchor the defensive line, and Charles Woodson remains a good veteran presence, but there are just too many holes. As long as the Raiders understand they need to stay the course rebuilding and work around the pieces they have, their future might be good. Their 2015, however... not so much.
2015 Prediction: 4-12

We're halfway home. Check back tomorrow when I preview the division most relevant to me and my general area in the NFC North.

AFC West Preview

Everyone has their fourth and final preseason game in the books, so this is the last Sunday for a while without NFL football. The excitement is getting close. With two divisions left to go, each conference still has a wild card that I haven't accounted for, which means there's one more on the docket today.

With just a few days left, you still have time to join in on the COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em contest. It's free to join with an ESPN account (also free), and you can pick games against the spread with me and see how you can compare with someone who's happened to be above .500 the last two seasons.

Advertisement out of the way, let's get to the preview. Today, the AFC West.

Common opponents on schedule: AFC East, NFC West

1. Denver Broncos
2013: 13-3 (1st), lost Super Bowl XLVIII
The Broncos broke records upon records last year, with Peyton Manning throwing for 55 touchdowns. There will be some regression to the mean this season, especially with Wes Welker missing at least part of the season with a concussion. Manning still has Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker to throw to though, plus a decent running game with Montee Ball. I question this defense a bit though. Adding Aqib Talib was a good move for the secondary, but I'm not sure how good Rahim Moore will be. The defection of DeMarcus Ware is a big move though too, especially when you have him playing with Von Miller. But really, as long as Peyton is around, the Broncos are the team to beat.
2014 Prediction: 12-4

2. San Diego Chargers
2013: 9-7 (3rd), lost in AFC Divisional Round
The power of Phillip Rivers' bolo tie showed up late in the season as the Bolts won their final four games to sneak into the playoffs, and even picked up a playoff win. Early last year, everyone (me included) were down on Rivers. Now, he's worked his way back into the upper tiers of quarterbacks.  It helps that he has some solid weapons again this year with wideouts like Keenan Allen, and Antonio Gates is a veteran presence in the middle of the field. Their running game should be good too with the depth they have. I'm not sure what to make of the defense after they gave up the fourth-most passing yards in 2013. The third place schedule should help a bit though.
2014 Prediction: 9-7, Wild Card

3. Kansas City Chiefs
2013: 11-5 (2nd), lost in AFC Wild Card Round
This team was kind of a paper tiger last year; after starting 9-0, they closed the year with a 2-6 mark, including that playoff collapse at Indy. If there's some health on this roster the Chiefs will be in contention for a playoff spot, but I'm not super sold on the depth on defense. Tamba Hali and Dontari Poe need to stay healthy. Meanwhile on offense, Dwayne Bowe had a down year again. Is it Alex Smith, or is he past his prime? And just how good is Alex Smith? With Andy Reid at the helm, they can probably do some damage on offense, especially with Jamaal Charles. I just think last year had some flukiness to it.
2014 Prediction: 8-8

4. Oakland Raiders
2013: 4-12 (4th), missed playoffs
The Raiders got next to nothing from the quarterback spot last year. It's a question this year of which Matt Schaub they got: 2012 or 2013. Rookie Derek Carr could take over if it's the latter. The ground game is intriguing this year with the addition of Maurice Jones-Drew to back up Darren McFadden, but in the air, will the Curse of Leaving Aaron Rodgers hurt James Jones like it hurt Greg Jennings? On defense, Khalil Mack will eventually be a big part of this defense, but a lot of the rest looks like veteran retreads (Nick Roach, Charles Woodson and Justin Tuck to name three). Probably not a good year for the silver and black yet again.
2014 Prediction: 4-12

With the AFC done, here's a look at how I would seed the playoffs.

1. Denver Broncos: 12-4
2. Indianapolis Colts: 11-5
3. New England Patriots: 10-6
4. Cincinnati Bengals: 10-6
5. Baltimore Ravens: 9-7
6. San Diego Chargers: 9-7

Labor Day is tomorrow, but I still have some football posts to do. However, I'm taking a couple day break from the NFL to go back to covering college football. Tomorrow I look at the games from Week 1, then Tuesday will be coverage of the Week 2 schedule. Wednesday I will have my final division preview with the home of the defending champs.

AFC West Preview

Happy Labor Day! I may be off from my day job today, but I'm still doing my writing on this holiday.

The NFL slate is almost upon us, and with just a few days left until the season begins, I need to hurry up and finish previewing all 32 NFL teams. Today we move to the AFC West. This is another top heavy division, but will they contain the AFC's second wild card? You'll have to read on to find out.

Common opponents on schedule: AFC South, NFC East

1. Denver Broncos
Last year: 13-3 (1st), lost in AFC Divisional Round
We have to remember: Denver was poised to host New England to set up yet another Brady/Manning playoff duel before Rahim Moore inexplicably forgot how to play pass defense up a touchdown in the closing moments of a game. They're going to have some issues to start the year, as Elvis Dumervil left due to a fax machine error and Von Miller is sitting out the first six games of the year for violating the league's substance abuse policy. Fortunately for the Broncos, the toughest game on that stretch of their schedule is the season opener against Baltimore. I think 4-2 in that stretch is reasonable, especially since there aren't any injury-based doubts about the guy they have lining up under center. Adding Wes Welker to their receiving corps doesn't hurt either.
2013 Prediction: 13-3

2. Kansas City Chiefs
Last year: 2-14 (4th), missed playoffs
Let's face it: the Chiefs were bad last year. They addressed a major hole by getting rid of Romeo Crennel and replacing him with Andy Reid, which is an upgrade as long as Reid doesn't say "Ermahgerd berbercurr!" and proceed to eat the entire metro out of house and home. They upgraded at quarterback to Alex Smith who looked really good again last year before he got hurt and was replaced by Colin Kaepernick in San Fran. He's got decent receivers, and having Jamaal Charles at running back is a good sign too. Their defense is decent as well, and while they may not make the playoffs, they're heading back in the right direction after a couple straight down years.
2013 Prediction: 7-9

3. San Diego Chargers
Last year: 7-9 (2nd), missed playoffs
The Chargers' window is closing. Phillip Rivers is a good but not great quarterback who can make mistakes at the least opportune time, and Antonio Gates is getting up in years. Ryan Matthews would be a good runner if he could stay healthy; he has yet to play a full season since coming into the league 3 years ago. Defensively, the additions of Dwight Freeney and Manti Te'o ought to make things interesting for a defense that wasn't too bad last year. I just don't think the offense has the firepower to do enough, and we can't blame Norv Turner this year. Oh well.
2013 Prediction: 6-10

4. Oakland Raiders
Last year: 4-12 (3rd, missed playoffs)
I think this is still a team trying to piece itself together. Matt Flynn, for the second straight year expected to be the starter, looks to be ceding the job to Terrelle Pryor, who has thrown all of 30 passes in his NFL career. They don't have much of a receiving corps, and Darren McFadden needs to stay healthy if this team can exceed expectations. Adding Charles Woodson back to the secondary might help that side of the ball a little bit, but I'm not sure how well he'll fit that role like he fit the nickel corner in Green Bay's defense perfectly.
2013 Projection: 4-12

Tomorrow I visit the division that likely most of my readership cares about in the NFC North. Granted, it's because I live in Chicago, but still. Should be good.

AFC West Preview

For the NFC East preview, click here.
For the AFC East preview, click here.
For the NFC South preview, click here.
For the AFC South preview, click here.
For the NFC West preview, click here.

The preseason is done, and we're less than a week away from the start of the season! I've almost made my way entirely around the country, with just 3 divisions left. Today we tackle the AFC West, the tightest division race from last year looking back.

AFC West
Common opponents on schedule: AFC North, NFC South

1. San Diego Chargers
2011 Record: 8-8, missed playoffs

There's something about this team under Norv Turner where they don't seem to be at their best until it's too late... or unless Mike Scifres, Champion Punter of the Universe is singlehandedly keeping you in the game. But Phillip Rivers is likely to have something of a bounceback year after a disappointing 2011 season. He's without Vincent Jackson and Ryan Matthews might still be a little banged up, but I think in a weak division the Chargers have a good shot at winning this division.

2. Denver Broncos*
2011 Record: 8-8, lost in AFC Divisional round

Denver made probably the second biggest upgrade under center during the offseason, unloading Tim Tebow and replacing him with Peyton Manning (though honestly, I still would have loved to see this theory play out at Mile High.) Largely it was the defense last year that kept Denver in so many games allowing Tebow to do things like this. With Manning commanding the offense, assuming his neck holds up he should be able to lead this team to victories without the need for such dramatics, and I think it'll be enough to get them back to the playoffs.

3. Kansas City Chiefs
2011 Record: 7-9, missed playoffs

Matt Cassel remains an average quarterback, but this offense has some pretty good weapons in Dwayne Bowe and Steve Breaston on the other side. A healthy Jamaal Charles also helps, and having Peyton Hillis to spell him occasionally will be a benefit.They have some decent weapons on the defensive side of the ball as well, which should get this team back to around .500 again and in decent position for next year.

4. Oakland Raiders
2011 Record: 8-8, missed playoffs

It's amazing to think that without Tebow's magic the Raiders would have been the division champs. They have a decent shot at it if Darren McFadden stays healthy all season (not a given) and if Carson Palmer learns that his team wears black and silver. Their defense has some decent weapons but I'm not sold on the top receivers being Denarius Moore and Darrius Heyward-Bey. The other problem, of course, is Oakland's constant penalty troubles, though we'll see if a new head coach (again) can turn the discipline problem around.

Tomorrow I'll have the preview I've been most looking forward to writing as its my own division in the NFC North and thus the one I'm most knowledgeable about. I might also talk to my dad and see what he has to say about his team. All we're missing was having my brother pick the Lions as his team to be difficult. Alas.