2018 NFC West Preview

In October of 2011, I started this blog as a way to market myself and have some fun writing about sports. And today, August 30, 2018, marks a milestone for me: the 1000th Confession of a Sportscaster.

Most of these confessions have been about one of the seven Tournaments of Champions I've run, the most recent of which is awaiting its championship game this weekend. I'm also picking up a seventh year of my Pigskin Pick 'Em contest, renewing my weekly column with Adam Quinn where we pick NFL games.

But the honor of being my 1000th Confession goes to my preview series for the 2018 NFL season, in particular my picks for the NFC West. Let's get to it!

2017 NFC West Preview

It's Wednesday, and we're shifting things over to the West Coast as we continue our preview series for the upcoming NFL season.

Today is day three of eight straight weekdays of going division by division, alternating conferences, until I've hit all 32 NFL teams. So far, we've done both the NFC and AFC North, and no wild card spots are accounted for quite yet. We'll see if that changes today.

Before I get into the previews, I'm making yet another shameless plug for the upcoming season and my continuing Pigskin Pick 'Em series that Adam Quinn will join me for once again. You can come pick against us here.

And now, onto the NFC West.

2016 NFC West Preview

We've finally worked our way west in my series of NFL previews as we're now just two days away from the official start of the NFL season.

After years of rumblings, the NFL has also finally returned to Los Angeles, so I've had to alter one of my labels for this post. Sorry, St. Louis football fans. I hate a lot of the economics of the sport that forced the Rams out. They and the rest of the NFC West get their preview on today.

You still have a couple days to get in on the spread picking action. Adam Quinn returns to defend his crown in our annual ESPN Pigskin Pick 'Em contest, which you can join at the link provided. We weren't very good last year... or the year before... so you have a decent shot at beating us.

Without further ado, let's hit up the NFC West.

2015 NFC West Preview

One day after a quick college football break, I'm back to previewing the NFL.

You can read a little more in-depth previewing over at UKEndZone, where Ollie Connolly and Andrew Symes are hard at work going division by division as well. In addition to that, Adam and I will be picking NFL games against the spread all season, and I would enjoy having a few extra people in on the fun. You can join our group here with a free ESPN account and see if you can best our scores (neither of us had a very successful 2014 season, so you could win). We're actually up to three people now, as my dad has decided to join the fun.

With the shameless plugs out of the way, let's get to work.

NFC West

Common opponents on schedule: NFC North, AFC North

1. Seattle Seahawks
2014: 12-4 (1st), lost Super Bowl XLIX
The best defense in the NFL reloaded once again, keeping most of its core intact (including the Legion of Boom, obviously), with really the only notable change on that end being the addition of Cary Williams to start opposite Richard Sherman at cornerback. The Seahawks also pretty heavily upgraded their offense by trading for Jimmy Graham. He gives Russell Wilson a go-to target in the passing game while Marshawn Lynch continues to be Marshawn Lynch. The NFC continues to go through Seattle.
2015 Prediction: 12-4

2. Arizona Cardinals
2014: 11-5 (2nd), lost in NFC Wild Card Game
The Cardinals rode a strong defense to contention for the NFC West for much of the season. Patrick Peterson and Tyrann Mathieu headline a secondary that isn't quite as talented as Seattle's, but is still very good. They're going to do some damage defensively again, but the question mark is on offense. Carson Palmer should be ready to go after missing a chunk of 2014, and if he's hurt, Drew Stanton is the backup, so Palmer's health is a major concern. I'm not sure what to expect on the ground out of Andre Ellington, though the Cardinals did add Chris Johnson in the offseason, and we'll have to see if he can break into the rotation. The Cardinals will be good, and Bruce Arians will have this team competing for the division title. I just think they don't quite have enough talent to surpass Seattle.
2015 Prediction: 10-6, Wild Card

3. St. Louis Rams
2014: 6-10 (4th), missed playoffs
The Rams finally parted ways with Sam Bradford after he couldn't stay on the field, and I do think Nick Foles is a bit of an upgrade. He's not going to replicate his 2013 season, especially not with this receiving corps, but he's much more likely to stay on the field than Bradford is. The defense, however, is absolutely terrifying. The Rams just keep adding talent to their defensive line, most recently signing Nick Fairley away from the Lions. With all the bodies they can throw at opposing quarterbacks, they're going to be a tough out. They still need to build their offense around Foles or whatever future quarterback they pick, but they're going to be a decent team this year.
2015 Prediction: 8-8

4. San Francisco 49ers
2014: 8-8 (3rd), missed playoffs
Has any team ever had a worse offseason than the 49ers did this past few months? Jim Harbaugh wore out his welcome and left for Ann Arbor, Chris Borland decided to hang it up, as did Justin Smith and Patrick Willis, while Ahmad Brooks is in legal trouble and Aldon Smith is no longer with the Niners after additional legal trouble. The offense will probably be decent, as the Niners signed Torrey Smith to play opposite Anquan Boldin and give the Niners a couple good wideouts, but I'm not sold overall on Kaepernick, and I don't know that Carlos Hyde and Reggie Bush can replicate the success Frank Gore has had. It's going to be a long year in the Bay Area.
2015 Prediction: 4-12

Now that we're back on schedule, I'll be back at this tomorrow with the AFC West.

NFC West Preview

Tomorrow night we begin! With just the one day left, I have only the NFC West left to preview. Some people argued that this division should have had three teams make the playoffs last year, but they only managed Seattle and San Francisco. This year, one wild card still remains, but who will get it?

With the season kicking off tomorrow night, you still have a little time to join in on the COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em contest. This is your last chance to join in, but it is free to join. It's also a lot of fun. I've enjoyed it a lot... though maybe it's had something to do with being able to crack numerous jokes. I already have a couple in mind, though more will show up as the season goes on.

But enough about that. Let's predict the NFC West.

Common opponents on schedule: NFC East, AFC West

1. Seattle Seahawks
2013: 13-3 (1st), won Super Bowl XLVIII
The defending champs come into the new season without a ton of lost personnel. Most of the defense returns, with the one major notable departure being Brandon Browner. Other than him, the Legion of Boom is still around. Super Bowl MVP Malcolm Smith might start at linebacker, and the defensive line is one of the best in football. On offense, Russell Wilson remains the best value in the league and doesn't need to be a world beater with the talent around him. Golden Tate is gone, but he still has Percy Harvin and Doug Baldwin to throw to, plus Marshawn Lynch to wreak havoc on the ground. There hasn't been a repeat champion in a decade, but the Seahawks could be the ones to break the streak.
2014 Prediction: 13-3

2. Arizona Cardinals
2013: 10-6 (3rd), missed playoffs
The Cardinals had an excellent 2013, but missed the playoffs because of the strength of the rest of the conference. The league's top run defense returns, and adds some pieces to bolster the pass defense. Adding Antonio Cromartie as your #2 corner across from Patrick Peterson will help, as will the return of Tyrann Mathieu. The question is if Carson Palmer can cut down on the turnovers (22 picks in 2013). Michael Floyd and Ted Ginn should be good pieces to take some pressure off of Larry Fitzgerald, while Andre Ellington will be the top running back this year. This year, they won't miss out.
2014 Prediction: 11-5, Wild Card

3. San Francisco 49ers
2013: 12-4 (2nd), lost in NFC Championship Game
Am I crazy? The team that has made three straight NFC title games won't make the playoffs? Colin Kaepernick has a ton of weapons to throw to, yet the Niners had the third fewest passing yards in 2013. There are ground weapons galore though too, with rookie Carlos Hyde backing up veteran Frank Gore. Problem is, there are some questions on the offensive line, and the defense is a question mark. NaVorro Bowman is out to start the year, and Aldon Smith is facing a lengthy suspension. The secondary has also lost a ton of pieces. All these things won't totally kill this talented team, but I think it torpedoes their playoff hopes significantly.
2014 Prediction: 10-6

4. St. Louis Rams
2013: 7-9 (4th), missed playoffs
The RGIII trade gave the Rams a ton of picks to work with, but it hasn't done much for their offense. Sam Bradford will miss the season, which means at least for now Shaun Hill is the Rams' 2014 quarterback. Zac Stacy and Tre Mason will make for a good 1-2 rushing punch, but the passing game will have issues. But you look at that defense... my goodness. The defensive line is probably better than Seattle's, and I really like the linebacking corps. It should help a secondary that I'm not totally convinced of, since quarterbacks will need to throw a little quicker than normal. I just don't know that they can score enough points to make a difference.
2014 Prediction: 7-9

Now that the whole NFC has been predicted, here's how the playoffs will unfold in my vision:

1. Seattle Seahawks: 13-3
2. Green Bay Packers: 11-5
3. New Orleans Saints: 11-5
4. Philadelphia Eagles: 10-6
5. Arizona Cardinals: 11-5
6. Chicago Bears: 10-6

Tomorrow the season starts, and since it's the beginning of a week, I'll have the Week 1 picks of the COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em contest. I have a new guest picker this year as well, and I'll introduce him tomorrow morning. Rest up, football fans: tomorrow night should be amazing!

Super Bowl Predictions and Prop Bets

Disclaimer: These bets are being used for the purposes of competition on ESPN.com's Super Pick 'Em. No money is being wagered for the purposes of this competition. You know, the whole "gambling being illegal" thing.

I was looking for something to do in conjunction with my Super Bowl prediction this year, and happened to notice on ESPN's website that they are hosting a game to pick some of the fun prop bets they've picked out, and I figured why not. Those will be featured below (after the jump), but I do want to focus on the most important part of the weekend: the Super Bowl itself. The line for this week's game comes from footballlocks.com.

Baltimore Ravens vs San Francisco 49ers (-3.5)
With a neutral site game, you can fully get what Vegas expects out of a matchup between two teams, since home field generally gives you 3 points to play with. I think the line sounds about right in the grand scheme of things, even if you go by some books that have the line at 4.

I really like the intrigue this matchup brings, and it goes beyond the already kind of worn out "HarBowl" moniker that this game has been given. The Niners were an elite defensive team that could out-physical most teams but had a question mark at quarterback in Alex Smith, but that question was definitively answered when Smith suffered a concussion and Colin Kaepernick Tom Brady'd Smith and the Niners have turned into probably the most complete team coming into the playoffs. On paper, the Niners are the better team. But that's what makes sports fun: games aren't played on paper.

The Ravens looked going into January like they'd be a fairly early out since they struggled to close out the regular season and didn't seem to have the momentum that most recent Super Bowl champs have had. Then Ray Lewis announced his retirement effective at the end of the season, and it gave the Ravens a little something extra to play for, like #Chuckstrong did in Indy for much of the year. When you combine that and his rejuvenation for this final run with the kind of tear Joe Flacco is on, this team is dangerous. San Francisco has shown they can be thrown on when the game is competitive. Aaron Rodgers did it for a while in the divisional round, and Matt Ryan did it in the first half of the conference title game. Niners fans would be delusional to think the Ravens can't move the ball through the air.

That's what makes this matchup so interesting. When you combine all these factors, it seems like we're bound for another game decided on the final possession. When it comes down to the winner, I have to go with the better team, but that emotional factor will likely allow Baltimore to at least cover the spread here.

Prediction:49ers 24, Ravens 21

Record So Far
6-4 straight up (1-1 last round)
139-126-1 against the spread (1-0-1 last round, 5-4-1 playoffs)

Sports ≥ Life?

This is probably going to be one of the more complicated posts I end up putting on here. I wanted to do something regarding the passing of Joe Paterno, but in light of some recent social media events (as well as mass media events too, I suppose), I'm putting his death into perspective.

I'll admit, I was fooled briefly on Saturday when a Penn State student newspaper broke the news that Joe Pa had passed away, and I retweeted the original post... only to find out a couple minutes later that the story was in fact false. I took down the retweet and felt bad that I had fallen for it, especially since I had checked ESPN and other sources to try and confirm what I had heard. When I saw it on ESPN's website yesterday morning with confirmation from the family, you knew it was official.

The lesson in all of this? Yes, it was a big mistake on the part of a young up-and-coming journalist, but it's rule number one. Check your facts before you post something. I always want to do my research before I post something, and it's always good to have data to back up your claims. You learn this in your basic writing classes even before college. The editor of said PSU paper did resign after his mistake, so he was at least accountable. CBS did later on too, but from a professional organization, you expect better.

As for Paterno himself, it's a complicated mess. I haven't been sure what to say about it, as I am not an avid college football fan, other than trying to incite people towards a playoff. Had he passed away 10 years ago, I'm not sure I would have known who he was. To me he was the guy who was at Penn State forever. History will show him as the winningest coach in D-I history, and a legend, as well he should be remembered. But fairly or not, history will also remember him as the guy who "should have done more" about the Sandusky allegations. Yesterday morning I was listening to John Kincade on the way to church, and he said we need to remember everything about Joe Pa, not just bits and pieces. That means Penn State fans need to take the controversy with the wins, and haters need to remember that despite the presence of an alleged pedophile in the football facilities, Paterno was still a good football coach and someone who strove to help boys grow into strong young men, though some say he got off easy, passing away just a couple months after being fired, without really a chance to reflect on what he'd allowed to happen.