2019 NFL Wild Card Preview

Even in a year where my team isn't in the playoffs once again... I just can't quit the NFL.

While Jen won the 2018 Pigskin Pick 'Em contest with me finishing just one game back, Adam clearly can't quit the NFL either even after a last place finish. He texted me Wednesday evening asking if we were doing anything for the playoffs. And because I can't help myself along with the fact that I've been doing this for years, we are going to go through the NFL playoff slate once again.

Last year it was just me, and I didn't track how I did against the spread. This year we're going to track that information, with Adam grabbing lines Thursday morning off of Bovada.

In a few weeks we will do our usual feature of Super Bowl prop bets, but this year we're doing the appetizer leading up to the main course. Here's a look at Wild Card Weekend.

2018 AFC North Preview

We're 10 days away from the start of the NFL season, which means it's time for me to start looking into what I think will happen in the upcoming year!

I've plugged this a little bit already as the summer winds down, but the annual Pigskin Pick 'Em contest is back for its seventh year, and for the fifth year in a row Adam Quinn and I will present our picks every Thursday of the season. It's a project I'm once again looking forward to.

But in the meantime, I'm going to go through every team over the next eight weekdays and make my predictions. As usual, I will go division by division, alternating conferences until I end with the division holding the defending champion. The way I originally scheduled this had my home division predictions going up on Labor Day, and because I'd like to have a little more chance for web traffic, I'm opting to start in the north, and since an NFC team is champion, that means we start this series with the AFC North.

2017 AFC North Preview

The NFL preview circuit rolls on as we swap conferences, but stay in the north!

I'm hitting up every division over the next several weekdays, with Saturday and Sunday off, even though Monday is Labor Day and a holiday because that's just how the timing works out.

This is also shameless plug time, as Adam Quinn and I will be picking games against the spread once again this season. If you would like to join us and try to beat us, you can do so here.

On to the previews.

2016 AFC North Preview

Welcome to September! We are officially a week away from the start of football season, and as such, I have more work to get to.

I'm going division by division predicting records for all 32 NFL teams, and I'm one division in. Today, I swap conferences and go to the AFC North.

With a week to go, you still have time if you want to join in on an NFL contest as Adam Quinn and I pick NFL game against the spread. If you think you can beat us, which isn't super difficult given how the last two years have gone, you can join our ESPN group here.

Let's get to the preview.

2015 AFC North Preview

It's Day 6 of going through the National Football League, division by division, and previewing the upcoming season. We're just a few days away now from the official start while the college season kicks into high gear today. I'll have more on the college game early this coming week once the NFL previews are complete.

If you want to read up on more details regarding the 2015 NFL season, my colleagues over at UKEndZone are running a series of previews going division by division as I am, and they're all brilliant football minds. If you want to try your hand at being a brilliant football mind, you can join myself, Adam Quinn, my dad, and Grabbing the Bull Horns blogger Geoffrey Clark in picking NFL games against the spread through ESPN's Pigskin Pick 'Em.

With that said, let's get to today's preview.

AFC North

Common opponents on schedule: AFC West, NFC West

1. Baltimore Ravens
2014: 10-6 (3rd), lost in AFC Divisional Game
A physical team and one who is always in the mix come December and January will be back atop the division this year. Joe Flacco lost one of his top weapons in Torrey Smith, but now that the whole Ray Rice fiasco is behind the team (I think), they can focus on the field. Justin Forsett will be a solid #1 back, and Steve Smith is still around to be a thorn in defenses' sides and stick up for his teammates when opponents are being thugs. Defensively, losing Haloti Ngata hurts a little bit, but their defense is still solid front to back. Terrell Suggs is still there, and brings an intimidating presence to lead the unit. It's going to be a dogfight, but I like the Ravens' chances to win the division.
2015 Prediction: 10-6

2. Pittsburgh Steelers
2014: 11-5 (1st), lost in AFC Wild Card Game
It's going to be weird watching the Steelers play without Troy Polamalu in the defensive backfield after he retired during the offseason. It's a bit of a blow to the defense, but this is still a solid unit, though not quite as good as Baltimore's in my opinion. They balance that out though with the best offense in the division. Le'Veon Bell will sit out the first two games of the season due to a suspension, but when he comes back he'll have DeAngelo Williams to complement him, making for a pretty fearsome rushing attack. Ben Roethlisberger, meanwhile, remains one of the best quarterbacks in the league, and he has an elite #1 receiver in Antonio Brown. They'll score some points and be right in the mix, but I'm thinking they just miss out on a second straight division title.
2015 Prediction: 10-6, Wild Card

3. Cincinnati Bengals
2014: 10-5-1 (2nd), lost in AFC Wild Card Game
The league has pretty much figured out the Bengals at this point: solid in the regular season, but will disappear in the playoffs. I still question Andy Dalton's big money contract, as he's a decent quarterback, but not a great one. A.J. Green has slowed down from his rookie year, and other than the Geo Bernard/Jeremy Hill tandem in the backfield, there's not much here offensively. The defense, however, is really good, with a solid front four and strong linebacking corps. Even the secondary isn't bad. I just think Dalton will make a few too many mistakes and just barely keep the Bengals out of the postseason, which probably means the end of the Marvin Lewis Era.
2015 Prediction: 9-7

4. Cleveland Browns
2014: 7-9 (4th), missed playoffs
Dwyane Bowe has left quarterback purgatory and comes to... quarterback hell. Josh McCown is nothing more than a journeyman backup to keep the seat warm for Johnny Manziel, who I continue to think is overrated. I'm not sold on their running game led by Isaiah Crowell either, though the offensive line is solid. This defense is pretty good though, with a really good 1-2 punch at cornerback with Joe Haden and Tramon Williams as well as a linebacking corps that can do some damage. Problem is, in this division, they aren't going to be able to keep up. It will be a long year in Cleveland.
2015 Prediction: 5-11

We have just two more divisions left. Tomorrow I will take a peek at the media darling NFC East.

The Dark Side of Sports, Part II

Photo uncredited

Wow, it's been crazy today.

Ozzie Newsome took the advice of my open note at the end of that post (...fine, he caved to collective peer pressure) and released Ray Rice. About an hour later, the NFL indefinitely suspended him.

Most of these issues I tackled in the above post, but to recap: the Ravens did the right thing... finally. The NFL also did the right thing... finally. Rice has no recourse with the Ravens, but the NFL Players Association will fight the NFL's decision. It's a second suspension for the same offense. I doubt it stands up. They may go for a middle ground; my coworker thinks that the suspension will ultimately be six games to equal the new system. If he can be reinstated at any point, I would hope NFL general managers realize they will be inviting heavy condemnation if they sign him. If he pays some sort of debt to society and truly repents, I'd be open to him returning, same as Michael Vick. But that isn't happening anytime soon.

Photo by Gene J. Puskar (AP)

Meanwhile, the NCAA decided that this afternoon would be the perfect time to pull a fast one and reinstate Penn State.

Honestly, I'm not sure what the rationale is behind this. What's clear is that the timing is terrible. They knew it would be a controversial decision, and saw a perfect smokescreen with Ray Rice. Fortunately, most of us are smart enough to see through that.

I'm just not sure where to cast my opinion on the decision itself. When the punishment first came down, I was wholeheartedly in support of it. But I need more information. Has the school fully taken steps to turn the corner from a dark part of its history?

@northsider89 time heals all wounds....go back and see how from top to bottom they hid the rape of boys. You'll remember .
— Imperial Intern (@Imperial_Intern) September 8, 2014

Penn State supporters argue that the penalty was unfairly punishing athletes who had nothing to do with what happened. But as much as I dislike the system, bowl games are a privilege, not a right. Officials high up sure seemed like they covered up heinous crimes to protect their football program, and their supposedly sainted head coach was in the middle of it all. The NCAA punished a program that placed football as a higher priority than lives, something I've repeatedly condemned.

So what's the rationale for lifting it now? Has the school done enough to try to atone for the damage caused? I don't have enough information to be the judge of that. Even so, I'm skeptical of this decision, especially given when it was announced. Because of that skepticism, I'm keeping Penn State ineligible for the Death to the BCS Playoffs unless there's enough out there to justify the decision.

The events of today are a great reminder to us all. Sports are great. They can bring people together in ways a lot of other things can't. But sometimes we get too engrossed in sport, and let it blind us to the things that really matter. Temper yourselves, and be careful not to fall into the trap.

The Dark Side of Sports

If you're a regular reader of COAS, or if you know me personally, you know I love sports. It's almost to a fault. I love playing them, watching them, writing about them... it's a big list. It's one of those things that definitely has its flaws and corruptions, but for many of us, we put it on the back burner and deal with it. Sometimes, we see things so heinous that tie to sports, that we are forced to confront the issue head on.

Photo from Getty Images

You've no doubt heard the story by now. Ravens running back Ray Rice made headlines back in February when video was leaked showing him dragging his then-fiancee out of an elevator in Atlantic City. He was charged with aggravated assault, but avoided trial by joining an intervention program. Inexplicably, Roger Goodell decided that two games was a long enough suspension for his misdeeds. If that wasn't enough, prior to the suspenion at a press conference, his now wife apologized for her role in what happened in Atlantic City.

Now today, furor has re-exploded thanks to TMZ releasing the video of what happened on the way into the elevator, but more importantly... in the elevator. Apparently, according to an official NFL statement, no one in the league saw this video until now. Fair warning: this video is pretty disturbing. Click on that link at your own risk.

Union talking about damb HGH when Ray Rice is playing football... Please. Get y'all priorities together...
— LeCharles Bentley (@LeCharlesBent65) September 8, 2014

2 games. Disturbing.
— TJ Lang (@TJLang70) September 8, 2014

2 games? I'm disgusted. This is not the example we want to leave for our youth.
— Garrett Gilkey (@gagilk73) September 8, 2014

Photo by Kenneth K. Lam (MCT)

I'm with the majority opinion that the 2-game suspension was way too light for the crime, and even Goodell thought that when he revamped the conduct policy to punish domestic violence cases more harshly. Unfortunately, as much as I'd like them to, the NFL can't go back and add games to the suspension. That becomes an ex post facto punishment, which is illegal. Yes, I know the NFL is not the court system, but the players' association would make that ex post facto argument, so the league knows better.

I was listening to Mike and Mike on my drive to the train station this morning, and they were talking about the release of this video. They agreed with the notion above, and suggested a Herm Edwards approach: make Ray Rice inactive. I'd love to see that. But will John Harbaugh do it?

Unfortunately, in the highest level of sports, integrity and character don't seem to matter all that much. If a guy can play, teams will take him, and use him. It's only when the bottom line or public image take a hit that anything gets done. And even then, a lot of times on field production will trump doing what's right.

I've been a married man for about two and a half months now. My wife and I have been together for five and a half years now. I would never even consider putting my hands on her, much less doing to her what Ray Rice did to Janay Rice. It's cowardly and disgusting. Ray Rice should be facing prison time for what he did. Instead, he has one more week before he can play football again.

For now, the NFL's hands are probably tied. But when he comes out of the tunnel in Cleveland (and let's be honest: he will, even though he shouldn't), I'm sure a lot of Browns fans will boo him. Heavily. And they should; he deserves it. But Ravens fans should do something to. Refuse to wear, or get rid of any Rice jerseys you have. Refuse to buy anything with his name or likeness on it, or if you want to go further, boycott stores that sell any of those items.

Photo uncredited

People probably already do that with Michael Vick because of his dogfighting past, but I don't want to see false equivalencies with that. Vick paid his debt to society and repented. He now seems to be an advocate against dogfighting, and as long as that remains true, he deserves the second chance he's gotten and has made the most of. If it comes to light that he went back to dogfighting, he deserves banishment from the league and prosecution to the fullest extent of the law. Ray Rice is different; he's not facing jail time now. He hasn't paid a debt to society in any form. And besides, Vick was let go by the Falcons after he was arrested. Rice, despite all the evidence, remains employed by the Ravens.

My last words are an open message to Ravens GM Ozzie Newsome. Do you want a man who had no problem spitting on, then punching his now wife, knocking her out, on your team? Do you want that man representing you and your organization not only on the field, but in the community? Do the right thing.

AFC North Preview

Slowly but surely, we've been working our way around the country. Half the league is done, and we have yet to come across any wild cards. Playing the odds, you'll probably see one today, right? Read on to find out.

Because I have no shame, I'd like to once again invite you readers to join in on picking games against the spread with me. ESPN's Pigskin Pick 'Em is free, and you can join the COAS group to see how well you can do picking games against me. After all, I can be an idiot sometimes.

But for now, let's get to today's preview. Today, we take a look at the AFC North.

Common opponents on schedule: AFC South, NFC South

1. Cincinnati Bengals
2013: 11-5 (1st), lost in AFC Wild Card Round
While I think he's a good quarterback, I don't understand why the Bengals gave Andy Dalton a 9 figure deal. He leads a good offense though; there's a solid two-pronged rushing attack of Giovani Bernard and the Law Firm, and AJ Green is a legitimate #1 receiver. On defense, the front seven is solid, and while I'm not as high on the secondary as I am that front unit, they allowed the fifth-fewest passing yards in the league last year. That has to count for something. They're good enough to make the playoffs again. I'm just not sold on what happens when they get there.
2014 Prediction: 10-6

2. Baltimore Ravens
2013: 8-8 (T-2nd), missed playoffs
The Ravens are one of 15 defending Super Bowl champs to miss the playoffs in their title defense year. A down year offensively didn't help (the Ravens were 18th in passing and 30th in rushing last year), and missing Ray Rice for the first two games for being a horrible fiancé during the offseason hurts them too (it should hurt them more than just two games, but that's another story). Joe Flacco gets another weapon this year in Steve Smith, which should help the passing game somewhat. The wheels didn't fall off too bad on defense last year either, and the unit they have isn't too shabby. Drafting CJ Mosley out of Alabama was a good pick in the first, and if he can live up to the standard of Ray Lewis, the Ravens should be in the hunt again this year.
2014 Prediction: 9-7, Wild Card

3. Cleveland Browns
2013: 4-12 (4th), missed playoffs
Call me crazy, but this defense should be good. Joe Haden is like Nnamdi Asomugha was during his Oakland days, and adding Justin Gilbert to play opposite him makes for a pretty darn good corner tandem. It's the offense that gives me pause. Miles Austin is pretty much the #1 receiver by default since Josh Gordon is done for the year due to suspension. The running game isn't good unless Ben Tate turns into a sleeper, and I'm not sure what to make at quarterback. Brian Hoyer was decent for stretches last year, but if he struggles, Johnny Manziel waits in the wings. (Honestly, I think he's overrated. Will probably become an average starter someday, but not this year).
2014 Prediction: 6-10

4. Pittsburgh Steelers
2013: 8-8 (T-2nd), missed playoffs
This is probably the biggest "Huh?" that I'm calling for this season., but I think the recent news about top two running backs LeGarrette Blount and Le'veon Bell facing possible suspensions really hurts. Even with Big Ben leading the offense, I'm not sold on their receivers either. There are some interesting names on defense, like first round pick Ryan Shazier, but Troy Polamalu isn't getting any younger. This might be a stretch, but I have a hunch it's going to be a down year for the black and gold.
2014 Prediction: 5-11

There's one wild card, which means the other is coming from the AFC West. If you're looking for a football fix tomorrow before the college games start, I can oblige, especially for my local readers. The NFC North predictions will be up tomorrow! Will they be able to sneak two teams into the playoffs? Check back in the morning and find out!

Super Bowl Predictions and Prop Bets

Disclaimer: These bets are being used for the purposes of competition on ESPN.com's Super Pick 'Em. No money is being wagered for the purposes of this competition. You know, the whole "gambling being illegal" thing.

I was looking for something to do in conjunction with my Super Bowl prediction this year, and happened to notice on ESPN's website that they are hosting a game to pick some of the fun prop bets they've picked out, and I figured why not. Those will be featured below (after the jump), but I do want to focus on the most important part of the weekend: the Super Bowl itself. The line for this week's game comes from footballlocks.com.

Baltimore Ravens vs San Francisco 49ers (-3.5)
With a neutral site game, you can fully get what Vegas expects out of a matchup between two teams, since home field generally gives you 3 points to play with. I think the line sounds about right in the grand scheme of things, even if you go by some books that have the line at 4.

I really like the intrigue this matchup brings, and it goes beyond the already kind of worn out "HarBowl" moniker that this game has been given. The Niners were an elite defensive team that could out-physical most teams but had a question mark at quarterback in Alex Smith, but that question was definitively answered when Smith suffered a concussion and Colin Kaepernick Tom Brady'd Smith and the Niners have turned into probably the most complete team coming into the playoffs. On paper, the Niners are the better team. But that's what makes sports fun: games aren't played on paper.

The Ravens looked going into January like they'd be a fairly early out since they struggled to close out the regular season and didn't seem to have the momentum that most recent Super Bowl champs have had. Then Ray Lewis announced his retirement effective at the end of the season, and it gave the Ravens a little something extra to play for, like #Chuckstrong did in Indy for much of the year. When you combine that and his rejuvenation for this final run with the kind of tear Joe Flacco is on, this team is dangerous. San Francisco has shown they can be thrown on when the game is competitive. Aaron Rodgers did it for a while in the divisional round, and Matt Ryan did it in the first half of the conference title game. Niners fans would be delusional to think the Ravens can't move the ball through the air.

That's what makes this matchup so interesting. When you combine all these factors, it seems like we're bound for another game decided on the final possession. When it comes down to the winner, I have to go with the better team, but that emotional factor will likely allow Baltimore to at least cover the spread here.

Prediction:49ers 24, Ravens 21

Record So Far
6-4 straight up (1-1 last round)
139-126-1 against the spread (1-0-1 last round, 5-4-1 playoffs)