As a general rule, I tend to get a lot of these picks completely wrong. It's the nature of the predictions business. Some picks are obvious, but every year there's always at least one or two teams that surprise in one direction or the other.
Before I get to the AFC, I want to do another shameless plug for NFL picks. Adam Quinn will be defending his title against me, and we will continue our weekly picks post for the third straight year and my fifth doing at least some on this forum. If you want to pick against us, you can join our ESPN Pigskin Pick 'Em group.
Here's a look at our next NFL preview.
AFC East
Common opponents on schedule: AFC North, NFC West
2015: 12-4 (1st), lost in AFC Championship Game
New England added some depth to its already solid defense, and returning ten starters also helps a unit that finished in the top ten in both yards and points allowed last season. On offense, they only added some good pieces. Martellus Bennett might be even better than he was in Chicago with all the attention on Gronk. The only concern I have with this team is the first four games, where Jimmy Garoppolo will be starting at quarterback because Roger Goodell is a lying tyrant and the NFL players' union needs to strike when the CBA expires because, again, Goodell is a lying tyrant.
2016 Prediction: 11-5
2015: 10-6 (2nd), missed playoffs
Todd Bowles turned this team around last year more so than I expected and got them within a tiebreaker (and a Week 17 loss) of making the playoffs. Ryan Fitzpatrick is back under center, and he has a new weapon in Matt Forte to work with. With Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker catching passes out wide, the Jets are going to be a good offensive force. If the defense can keep it up under Bowles' tutelage, they'll be fighting New England for the division. Either way, I think they're in this year.
2016 Prediction: 10-6, Wild Card
2015: 8-8 (3rd), missed playoffs
Despite hiring a defensive-minded coach in Rex Ryan, the Bills' defense relapsed in 2015. I have to think that tide will get stemmed to some degree this season. I am interested to see what steps Tyrod Taylor has taken to improve for this season, since he has a couple of decent weapons at his disposal. I think the Bills will improve a bit from last year, but not quite enough to grab a playoff berth.
2016 Prediction: 9-7
2015: 6-10 (4th), missed playoffs
Adam Gase finally gets his shot as a head coach to see what he can do with Ryan Tannehill. He's a decent quarterback, and Gase has a good track record, but I'm not thrilled with Miami's weapons on offense. The defense is all right, led by Cameron Wake and Ndamukong Suh, but I'm not really sold on what they can do this season either. I may end up surprised, but I think it's going to be a bad year in South Florida due in part to the schedule.
2016 Prediction: 4-12
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