Thursday, September 15, 2016

2016 COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em: Week 2

To quote a text from my dad on Monday, "You and Adam should be embarassed."

I kind of am after a subpar Week 1 on both of our parts. The good news is that we split our four disputed games to keep us even. The bad news is that we are far and away in last place after Week 1. Fortunately, in the words of Lovie Smith, "We have a lot of football left to play."
So as we look ahead to Week 2, I'm taking Adam's initiative from late last season and breaking down our group's picks by how many of us are picking these games. As a group, we went 3 of 4 on hero picks, though I can't take any credit for that because I didn't go hero on any of mine. If you want to see the full breakdown, you can view the spreadsheet here. Either I or Adam will try to keep this as up to date as possible as the season goes along.

As for Week 2, there's a little more disparity than last week as Adam and I disagree on seven games out of the 16. Let's see if I can grab a lead and bounce back.

Thursday Night

New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills (-0.5)
Lucas: Jets. Thank God we aren't getting another Color Blind Bowl. But if the Bills can only manage seven points against Baltimore, why should I have faith in them against the Jets, especially given the chance for the Jets to get the last laugh again?
Adam: Jets. Basically a pick ’em.I am liking the Jets on the road. The Bills have nothing much at QB or anywhere else really. Maybe McCoy, but that is about it.
Lucas note: And yet we live in a world where Tyrod Taylor has a sponsorship deal with Toyota. Football is weird.

Sunday, Early Afternoon

Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5)
Lucas: Bengals. Given the general tight games that one would think happens with AFC North battles, I'm going to take the points. I know the Steelers played really well even with the suspensions in Week 1, and I'm not sure the Bengals can contain Antonio Brown, but the Bengals aren't the Redskins.
Adam: Bengals. Even without Bell the Pittsburgh offense looked great, and Williams was there to pick up the pieces. Should be a good game, but I think the Steelers' offense will not be able to hold up as well against the Cincy D.

Baltimore Ravens @ Cleveland Browns (+7.5)
Lucas: Ravens. Adam, you want to do the honors or should I?
Adam: Browns. It's hard to say with this high of a line this early with mediocre teams at best. I'll take the TD+ at home.

Lucas note: ...huh. In that case, ladies and gentlemen, your 2016 Cleveland Browns!



Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Redskins (-2.5)
Lucas: Cowboys. Dak Prescott looked pretty good in his debut, which should carry over to this one since Josh Norman was a non-factor Monday night. They shouldn't need to get out of bounds at the end of the game this time...
Adam: Redskins. It feels like a weird line, but then I remember Romo is out... and I think Dez is less than 100%. Also I have never been that high on the Skins, but I like them better than the Cowboys right now.

Tennessee Titans @ Detroit Lions (-5.5)
Lucas: Titans. I'm taking the points here because Tennessee's defense played pretty well in Week 1, and as long as Mariota doesn't commit any dumb turnovers, they should at least pull off a back door cover this week.
Adam: Titans. I just see the Lions finding a way to mess this one up. Stafford will have a good game, but I think we see the emergence of what can be, if all pieces are firing, a very productive Tennessee offense.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Houston Texans (-2.5)
Lucas: Chiefs. KC shouldn't have needed overtime last week. Maybe they won't this week.
Adam: Texans. This could be a game that could have a very high score. Rookie Will Fuller looked good and Miller is showing us what he can do now that he is not underused as he was in Miami.

Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots (-6.5)
Lucas: Patriots. Miami played well in arguably the toughest stadium in the league. Having to go to another one the following week almost doesn't seem fair.
Adam: Patriots. Since Gronk is still in question, I thought about taking Miami with the points, but even if Gronk does not play again this week it will still be a trouncing by New England at home.

New Orleans Saints @ New York Giants (-5.5)
Lucas: Giants. Now that Victor Cruz is back and has a full game under his belt, he should help the Giants immensely. And since the Saints couldn't stop anyone last week, I'll lay the points here.
Adam: Giants. Two things – compared to being at home, Brees is but average, and OBJ.

San Francisco 49ers @ Carolina Panthers (-13.5)
Lucas: 49ers. I'm taking the points and reaffirming my faith in Admiral Kelly, who will probably promptly turn this into Wolf 359 all over again.
Adam: Panthers. Logic tells me to take the points, but I just cannot get behind anything SF right now.

Sunday, Late Afternoon

Seattle Seahawks @ Los Angeles Rams (+5.5)
Lucas: Seahawks. Seattle probably gets back into the swing of things this week, but then again it helps playing a team whose only highlight came from the magic of Kevin Harlan.
Adam: Seahawks. Ladies and Gentlemen there is football again in LA... but alas not a victory.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Arizona Cardinals (-6.5)
Lucas: Buccaneers. Jameis Winston may be making a mini leap, and while I think the Cardinals will end up winning, Tampa will make it interesting.
Adam: Cardinals. DJ was great last week, now we get to see what he can really do.

Atlanta Falcons @ Oakland Raiders (-4.5)
Lucas: Raiders.
Adam: Falcons. I get the line, but I don’t like it. I think this week we will as see what a lucky SOB Freeman was at the start of last season and Tevin Coleman will take over lead back duties.

Indianapolis Colts @ Denver Broncos (-5.5)
Lucas: Broncos. When your pass defense can't stop a nosebleed and you lose a close game to Jim Freaking Caldwell, why should I pick you? This is probably a gross overreaction, but JIM FREAKING CALDWELL!
Adam: Colts. Luck is back, baby. On a related QB note, Trevor Siemian is now 3rd on the list of most touchdown passes by a Northwestern alum at a grand total of 1.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ San Diego Chargers (-2.5)
Lucas: Jaguars. I know tradition holds that home field is worth three points, but Qualcomm is maybe worth one point tops and the Chargers aren't that good. Get well soon, Keenan Allen.
Adam: Jaguars. Once again Keenan Allen knocked out with an injury. Here I was thinking I got him as a steal at 30th overall in a PPR league... looks like the last laugh is on me.

Sunday Night

Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings (+2.5)
Lucas: Packers. Sorry to crash the party, Minnesota.
Adam: Packers. AP vs Lacy. Should be a fun one.

Monday Night

Philadelphia Eagles @ Chicago Bears (-2.5)
Lucas: Eagles. I know the Bears didn't play too poorly in Week 1, but I'm not sure they can stop Carson Wentz (Go Bison).
Adam: Eagles. God the Bears suck. Philly is not that great, but my rule says pick against the Bears.
Lucas note: I like this rule.

Records Last Week
Lucas: 5-11
Adam: 5-11
Scott: 7-9
Grant: 9-7
Logan: 8-8
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