Chalk largely ruled in the Round of 64, as we only had five upsets: three five seeds and two six seeds were able to advance to the Round of 32, otherwise all the teams that finished in the top four of their respective groups held serve. Meanwhile from a historical perspective, the two teams that have won previous Tournaments of Champions are still alive, as are two of the three runners-up, and all of our previous semifinalists. By era, only two teams from before 1980 remain alive, and all but two champions from 2009-onward are still in contention.
Now the road gets a little bit harder as we move to the Round of 32. Since every group's top two finishers remain alive, those teams will continue to carry home court advantage into this round of play. As we did in the Round of 64 (though I don't think I ever specifically mentioned it), all series are best of sevens played in a 2-2-1-1-1 format.
The up to date bracket, scores, and results from Group Play can be found here. All simulations are provided by WhatIfSports.com. Let's get to it!
(5) 2022 Golden State Warriors vs (1) 2024 Boston Celtics
Game 1: @ '24 BOS 145, '22 GS 108
This one was never really close. The Celtics opened the game on a 12-2 run in the first three minutes, and led by double digits for most of the rest of the period except following a quick 5-0 mini run for Steph Curry, with Jrue Holiday hitting two threes in the final seven seconds of the period to help build an 18 point lead. Boston quickly got it over 20 in the second, pushed the margin to 30 late in the period, and went to the locker room up 35. The Celtics led by as many as 44 at one point in the third, but cruised to an easy victory in the opener.
Jayson Tatum ('24 BOS): 30 pts, 16 reb, 8 ast
Kristaps Porzingis ('24 BOS): 23 pts, 7 reb, 4 blk
Steph Curry ('22 GS): 33 pts, 6 reb, 9 ast
Game 2: @ '24 BOS 127, '22 GS 102
Early on this game seemed like it might be competitive. Less than two minutes in, the Warriors led 5-2, before a Jrue Holiday three sparked a 13-0 Celtic run. Steph Curry hit a three with 6:28 left in the opening quarter to cut it back to a single digit game... and that was it for Golden State's scoring in the opening stanza. All told, it took nearly nine minutes for the Warriors to get another field goal, and that Jordan Poole three managed to trim the deficit to 24 points. Golden State would pull within 18 before going into the break down 23. The Celtics then opened the second half with three straight three's and that effectively ended the contest. Boston led by as many as 39 in the third, and while the Warriors won the fourth quarter, it was only enough to cut the final margin of victory to 25.
Jayson Tatum ('24 BOS): 30 pts, 11 reb, 10 ast
Derrick White ('24 BOS): 27 pts, 8 reb, 5 ast
Steph Curry ('22 GS): 20 pts, 4 reb, 7 ast
Game 3: '24 BOS 115, @ '22 GS 101
Early on it seemed like the change of venue was going to benefit the Warriors as Klay Thompson hit back to back threes to open the game, but Golden State couldn't maintain the momentum as the Celtics followed up with a 14-3 run to take control. This time though the Warriors didn't roll over, as Luke Kornet's 17 footer with 11 seconds left to close the period's scoring only put Boston up by seven. The Celtics would get the margin as high as 12 midway through the second before the Warriors started to claw back, pulling within two with just under three minutes to play. Naturally, the Celtics closed the half on a 10-0 run and took that dozen point lead into the locker room. Boston would lead by as many as 17 before a late rally from the Warriors cut it to 10 on a Jordan Poole three at the third quarter buzzer. Golden State could not carry that momentum into the fourth however, and the Celtics take a commanding 3-0 series lead.
Jrue Holiday ('24 BOS): 20 pts, 6 reb, 5 ast
Jayson Tatum ('24 BOS): 18 pts, 7 reb, 11 ast
Jordan Poole ('22 GS): 25 pts, 4 ast
A 10-0 Celtic run after the opening minute was immediately answered by an 8-0 Warrior run, but back to back Celtic threes got Boston back out in front, and they remained so by seven after the opening 12 minutes. After Boston quickly pushed it to a dozen in the second, the Warriors fought back and managed to pull within five by the halfway point of the quarter. But the Celtics answered with an 8-2 run and led by as many as 14 before an Andrew Wiggins three at the buzzer made it an 11 point game at the break. The Warriors very briefly cut it to eight early in the third quarter, but it didn't take Boston long to work their way back, getting the lead as high as 16, but Golden State still had fight in them, with a Klay Thompson three with 25 seconds left making it just a six point game. Twice the Warriors hit three's to cut the margin in half early in the fourth, but each time the Celtics had a quick answer. Ultimately a 16-2 Celtics run midway through the fourth served as the death knell for the Warriors, and Boston continues its undefeated postseason run to the Round of 16.
Kristaps Porzingis ('24 BOS): 15 pts, 8 reb
Jaylen Brown ('24 BOS): 14 pts, 14 reb, 3 stl
Steph Curry ('22 GS): 21 pts, 6 reb, 5 ast
(3) 2002 Los Angeles Lakers vs (2) 2025 Oklahoma City Thunder
Game 1: @ '25 OKC 123, '02 LAL 110
An early 11-2 OKC run got the Thunder off and running in this one, and less than five minutes in they were up double digits. But the Lakers refused to go quietly, tying the game on a 12-2 run and even briefly taking the lead before the Thunder fought back to go up seven by the end of the first. Then the Lakers opened the second on a 14-2 run and seemed in control, leading by as many as six late in the half. But a Cason Wallace three with 39 seconds to go got the Thunder back within one, and Isaiah Joe's shot for the lead at the halftime buzzer fell short, so the Lakers went to the locker room up by the narrowest of margins. The third was largely back and forth, though the Thunder had a couple mini-runs to slowly take control. Ultimately the Thunder went to the fourth up five, and after Shaquille O'Neal threw down a fourth chance dunk on the opening possession to make it a one score game, Luguentz Dort went on a personal 9-0 run to open the distance. The Lakers would get within six with three and a half minutes to go, but the Thunder were perfect at the line over the final 2:47 and hit enough other shots to secure the early victory in the series.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ('25 OKC): 39 pts, 6 reb, 9 ast
Luguentz Dort ('25 OKC): 26 pts
Shaquille O'Neal ('02 LAL): 26 pts, 15 reb, 3 stl
Game 2: @ '25 OKC 111, '02 LAL 89
The Thunder scored the game's first five to put the Lakers in catchup mode early in this one, and a mid-period 6-0 run helped extend that margin. While the Lakers did all they could to keep it close, they still went to the second down five. Derek Fisher hit a three with 7:04 left in the half to tie the game at 38. But that was LA's high water mark as OKC followed that up with a 24-2 run that saw the Lakers go nearly six minutes without a field goal. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's floater at the halftime buzzer put the hosts up 21 going into the intermission. The Lakers would pull back within 13 late in the third, but the Thunder were able to get the margin back up to 17 by period's end thanks in part to an Alex Caruso buzzer beater. The Lakers never threatened in the fourth either, with the reserves getting the final score to an over 20 point victory for OKC.
Jalen Williams ('25 OKC): 23 pts, 5 ast, 3 blk
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ('25 OKC): 23 pts, 11 reb, 5 ast
Kobe Bryant ('02 LAL): 24 pts, 9 reb
Game 3: '25 OKC 123, @ '02 LAL 120
Once again OKC opened the game with a 5-0 lead and the Thunder largely stayed ahead for the first half of the period. The Lakers would tie the game six separate times in the first, the last coming on a fadeaway from Mitch Richmond at the buzzer. But the Thunder continued to stymie the hosts, using a 13-2 run in the second to open up a 12 point lead. OKC would lead by as many as 14 before the Lakers managed to cut it to eight going to the locker room. The Thunder still couldn't pull away fully in the third as the Lakers hung around, trimming it to a one possession game midway through and holding the Thunder off the board for four minutes. Finally with just over three minutes to play the Lakers grabbed their first lead on a Shaquille O'Neal jumper through contact. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander would immediately answer, and he would later hit a trio of free throws in the closing seconds to put OKC up five going into the final stanza. The Lakers opened the fourth opening up from beyond the arc, with Lindsey Hunter tying the game at 90 from beyond, setting up an eventual dunk from Slava Medvedenko to give the Lakers a two point lead. This prompted a very back and forth fourth quarter that featured seven ties and 11 lead changes. The last came with 47 seconds left when Isaiah Hartenstein converted a layup. The Lakers missed two shots to retake the lead, and after the second Jalen Williams hit a pair of free throws to push the lead to three with just four seconds left. The Lakers called timeout to advance the ball and they got a look, but Derek Fisher's try was contested and missed, allowing the Thunder to escape with the road win.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ('25 OKC): 40 pts, 4 reb, 10 ast
Chet Holmgren ('25 OKC): 17 pts, 10 reb
Kobe Bryant ('02 LAL): 25 pts, 11 reb, 8 ast
Finally it was the Lakers who got out to the immediate advantage, leading 7-2 less than two minutes into the game. The good feelings were immediately shot down as the Thunder responded with an 11-0 run, though LA countered with an 8-0 run of their own and we got treated to a competitive quarter that saw OKC take a seven point lead by the buzzer. Just over three minutes into the second the Thunder had pushed the margin to double digits. By the halftime buzzer, the Lakers had only added 15 points to their total from the first, while Jalen Williams had scored six points in the final 62 seconds to push OKC's lead to 19. OKC opened the second half on a 12-0 run, and by that point the series was effectively over. LA got as close as 26 in the third, but fell behind by 32 going into the final 12 minutes, and even a 6-0 run to open the fourth wasn't enough. LA was able to cut the deficit to 20 with just under seven minutes to play, but they had dug themselves too deep a hole, and OKC advances to the Round of 16.|
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ('25 OKC): 28 pts, 5 reb, 5 ast, 3 stl
Jalen Williams ('25 OKC): 16 pts, 8 reb
Shaquille O'Neal ('02 LAL): 18 pts, 8 reb
(3) 1995 Orlando Magic vs (2) 2013 Miami Heat
Game 1: '95 ORL 105, @ '13 MIA 103
It took a minute and a half for the series' first points to be scored, but once they did we had a pretty good back and forth before the Magic started to pull away, going up by as many as eight late in the first on a Dennis Scott three. The Heat got back into it early in the second with an 8-2 run to open, then after the Magic slowly pulled away, got back to tie the game at 49 with under two minutes to play in the half, then grabbing their first lead with 51 seconds left on a LeBron James three. That three held up and put Miami in front by one at the break. Shaquille O'Neal ended up scoring eight straight early in the second half to help put Orlando back in front by nine and briefly led by double digits before a furious Miami rally got the Heat back into it, with Dwyane Wade hitting a shot at the third quarter buzzer to put his team back up by one. Miami led for the first few minutes of the fourth before we got a back and forth affair that saw four ties and five lead changes before Penny Hardaway threw down a dunk with 44 seconds left to give the Magic a 103-101 lead. LeBron missed a go-ahead three on the ensuing possession and Shaq followed with ended up being the dagger with 18 ticks left. Chris Bosh wasn't going to let the Heat go quietly, hitting a quick floater four seconds later, and the Heat got a perfect sequence going, fouling Shaq and seeing him miss two free throws with 10 seconds left. Bosh rebounded the second miss, and got a chance from eight feet at the horn, but his jumper hit front iron, and the Magic escape with the Game 1 road win.
Shaquille O'Neal ('95 ORL): 32 pts, 17 reb, 5 ast
Anfernee Hardaway ('95 ORL): 11 pts, 4 reb, 6 ast
LeBron James ('13 MIA): 24 pts, 9 reb, 11 ast, 3 stl
Game 2: '95 ORL 104, @ '13 MIA 96
The beginning of Game 2 saw some back and forth, but the Heat settled in and took control, leading by as many as six in the opening frame before taking a three point lead to the second. Five straight points from Orlando to open the second helped flip momentum and soon it was the Magic holding a narrow edge. Six straight points late in the half helped them build a seven point lead, and that margin held going to the locker room. It took almost two minutes for any scoring to begin the third, but when it did, it was all Magic, as they scored eight straight to help build a 16 point lead. That was short lived as the Heat answered with three straight triples. Orlando would stabilize the situation and took a nine point lead to the fourth. Penny Hardaway scored nine points in the first three minutes of the period to help get the margin to 18 and Orlando began to cruise. The Heat would make it interesting, using an 11-2 run late to help cut the deficit to five, but Orlando did just enough to burn clock and slowly pull away to steal both games on the road to open the series.
Shaquille O'Neal ('95 ORL): 25 pts, 19 reb
Horace Grant ('95 ORL): 20 pts, 9 reb, 6 ast
LeBron James ('13 MIA): 17 pts, 8 reb, 13 ast
Game 3: '13 MIA 123, @ '95 ORL 115
LeBron James cashed in a three point play on the game's opening possession and the Heat were off and running. Miami never trailed in the opening 12 minutes, leading by as many as eight before taking a five point lead to the second. Orlando cut it to one just a couple minutes into the period, but back to back threes by Ray Allen and Mario Chalmers pushed the margin back out. The Heat seemed in control until the Magic closed the half on a 13-2 run, capped by Nick Anderson's turnaround with 15 seconds left that tied the game going to the break. Orlando's momentum continued into the third as they scored the period's first five points, but the Heat answered back, with a LeBron three midway through serving as a spark that gave them the lead, and James finished the quarter with a buzzer beater to push the Heat lead to six. The Magic got back within three early in the fourth, but just a couple minutes later Miami had gotten the margin up to double digits, and the Heat were able to coast to a big Game 3 win.
LeBron James ('13 MIA): 29 pts, 10 reb, 6 ast
Dwyane Wade ('13 MIA): 25 pts, 5 reb
Anfernee Hardaway ('95 ORL): 28 pts, 4 reb, 5 ast, 3 stl
Game 4: '13 MIA 116, @ '95 ORL 106
After dueling five point runs in the opening couple minutes, the Heat took advantage of a 10-1 run midway through the opening quarter to help build a lead that briefly hit double digits but settled to seven by period's end. The Magic would cut it to two several times in the second before finally breaking through and tying the game at 45 with just under four minutes left in the first half. LeBron James immediately answered with a three point play that sparked a 10-2 run, though Penny Hardaway scored seven points in the final 64 seconds to help make it a one score game going to the locker room. Several ties and lead changes marked the first half of the third quarter until a 9-0 Heat run got the visitors back in control. Orlando would cut it to three late, but a Chris Bosh bank with four seconds left put the Heat up five going to the fourth. Bosh at one point scored six straight for Miami in the fourth, helping them build a ten point lead and bounce back from the two rough home losses to start the series and even things back up returning to South Florida.
Chris Bosh ('13 MIA): 39 pts, 10 reb, 4 ast
Dwyane Wade ('13 MIA): 13 pts, 7 reb, 13 ast
Shaquille O'Neal ('95 ORL): 33 pts, 14 reb
Game 5: '95 ORL 118, @ '13 MIA 113
Early on it seemed like Miami had completely seized control of the series. Opening the game on a 9-2 run, the Heat got to a double digit lead just over five minutes into the game, and late in the quarter a 13-0 Miami run pushed the lead to 19, where it remained by the buzzer. With a Dwyane Wade dunk with 5:27 left in the first half, the Heat were more than doubling up the Magic at 50-24. Then Miami went cold for a few minutes, the Magic went on a 10-0 run, and by the end of the half, the margin was down to a still large, but much more surmountable, 18 points. That must have given Orlando some confidence, especially on offense, as the Magic scored on each of their first 15 possessions of the third. Miami had kept scoring, but by the time Udonis Haslem secured a rebound off a Nick Anderson miss with about four minutes left in the third to mark Miami's first stop of the second half, the lead had been cut to eight. It turned out that miss was the only stop the Heat would manage for the third quarter, as Orlando closed the period on an 18-2 run over the final three minutes, including an Anfernee Hardaway three with 1:26 left that gave the Magic their first lead of the contest. All told, Orlando scored a tournament high 52 points for the period, and a shell shocked Heat team struggled the rest of the way. A pair of Shaquille O'Neal free throws with 48 seconds left gave the Magic their biggest lead of the game at 113-102, with a Chris Bosh three at the buzzer making this one a little bit closer than it actually was.
Anfernee Hardaway ('95 ORL): 37 pts, 5 reb, 10 ast
Shaquille O'Neal ('95 ORL: 31 pts, 13 reb, 5 ast, 3 blk
Dwyane Wade ('13 MIA): 22 pts, 6 reb, 11 ast, 5 stl
Miami took the early lead, determined to get the bad taste from Game 5 out of their mouths, and were able to either stay tied or just a step ahead for the first few minutes. Then the Magic went on a 9-0 run, pushed the lead as high as eight, and went to the second up five. Miami was able to keep it close for most of the second, finally pulling back to within one possession with about four minutes left. But a Shaquille O'Neal three point play got the Magic going again, and they would close the half on a 9-0 run for a 12 point halftime lead. They followed that up with an 11-2 run to open the third. It stayed around that 21 point mark for the rest of the quarter and was at that mark as we flipped to the final period. The Magic were able to push the margin to 30 with about seven minutes left, and that was that. Miami cutting it to 23 with just under four minutes to play wasn't near enough, so both teams emptied their benches, and Mike Miller, who hadn't played meaningful minutes since Game 2, got several garbage time baskets to help make the margin much closer than it actually was, but not enough to stop Orlando from securing the upset.
Shaquille O'Neal ('95 ORL): 39 pts, 10 reb
Anfernee Hardaway ('95 ORL): 19 pts, 6 reb, 8 ast, 5 stl
Dwyane Wade ('13 MIA): 12 pts, 5 reb, 10 ast, 3 stl, 3 blk
(4) 2014 San Antonio Spurs vs (1) 2007 San Antonio Spurs
Game 1: '14 SA 99, @ '07 SA 89
Michael Finley scored five of the first seven for the hosts and got the '07 Spurs off and running. They kept the lead until the midway point, when Tiago Splitter hit a three point play to tie the game at 14. The teams went back and forth the rest of the quarter, but ended it all square at 27. The lead would change hands four times early in the second, with the fourth sparking a '14 Spurs 12-0 run. The hosts would have a nice bounceback though and pulled within six going to the intermission. The visitors would quickly get the margin back to double digits early in the second half, going up by as many as 14 before a 9-0 '07 Spurs run got the hosts back in the game. They couldn't quite get over the hump by quarter's end, and settled into the fourth down just four. '07 Manu Ginobili got a tip in to open the fourth, then the visitors scored the next nine. A mini '07 run was cooled off by a Patty Mills three, though the hosts were still able to keep it close, pulling within two on a Brent Barry three with 2:39 to play. But that was the last basket the '07 Spurs would hit, as the '14 Spurs pulled away over the rest of the time to get the road win in Game 1.
Tim Duncan ('14 SA): 17 pts, 8 reb
Tiago Splitter ('14 SA): 13 pts, 6 reb
Tim Duncan ('07 SA): 10 pts, 15 reb, 4 ast, 3 blk
Game 2: @ '07 SA 113, '14 SA 103
After opening the game with four ties and four lead changes, the '14 Spurs closed the first quarter scoring six of the final eight points to take a four point lead. The visitors would push it to seven early in the second before '07 San Antonio fought back to tie the game ever so briefly before the visitors retook the lead. An '07 Manu Ginobili 15 footer with 37 seconds left only managed to cut the deficit to two, but that's how we went to the break. Out of the intermission the hosts came firing, scoring the first six to grab the lead, with a later mini 5-0 run after the visitors retied the game. With 4:26 left in the third the hosts pushed the lead to double digits, and after a small '14 Spurs push, '07 Tim Duncan hit a desperation heave from 65 feet at the buzzer to push the lead back to 10. That energized the crowd, as the hosts scored the first 11 of the fourth to build an insurmountable lead while the '14 Spurs needed over four minutes to get their first field goal. By the middway point of the fourth the margin was 20, and the 2007 Spurs had evened up the series.
Tim Duncan ('07 SA): 26 pts, 11 reb, 4 ast, 4 blk
Tony Parker ('07 SA): 24 pts, 9 ast
Manu Ginobili ('07 SA): 20 pts, 5 reb
Game 3: @ '14 SA 96, '07 SA 84
Scoring was a little slow to start Game 3, but in particular for the hosts as the '07 Spurs started the game on a 10-2 run. But the '14 Spurs ended the quarter on a matching run to take a 15-14 lead going into the second. The '07 Spurs would bounce back and lead by as many as six well into the second quarter, surviving a couple one possession leads by the hosts and going to the break up 45-41. They would get the lead briefly back to six early in the third, but traded leads with the '14 Spurs five times. The fifth time was part of a 12-0 run for the hosts, and they capped the quarter with a Kawhi Leonard three at the buzzer to go up ten. '07 San Antonio only briefly managed to get back within seven, as the hosts quickly got the margin back up, going up 15 by the halfway point and holding on from there.
Tim Duncan ('07 SA): 27 pts, 13 reb, 4 ast, 6 blk
Manu Ginobili ('14 SA): 18 pts, 3 stl
Kawhi Leonard ('14 SA): 17 pts, 5 reb, 4 ast
Game 4: @ '14 SA 106, '07 SA 97
The hosts got out to an early 9-4 lead but couldn't hold it as we got a 14-2 run from the '07 Spurs to take control of the game. They led by as many as nine, but were only up six after one thanks to a Patty Mills three late in the period. A 15-3 run for the hosts midway through the second completely flipped the script, and the '14 Spurs went up eight with 3:28 to play. The visitors were able to make it interesting, but a Tiago Splitter pull up at the halftime buzzer gave '14 San Antonio a five point lead going into the break. The hosts would use an 18-5 run midway through the third that saw the '07 Spurs go over six minutes without a field goal to build a huge lead and a 10-0 run late to really pour it on. By the time Kawhi Leonard hit a pullup at the third quarter buzzer the hosts were up 23 and ready to take a 3-1 series lead. That margin proved to be the high water mark, as the '07 Spurs went on a 13-0 run late in the fourth to cut the margin down to ten, and backup Eric Williams hit a three that cut it to seven, but by then there were only 28 seconds left, and the game was decided.
Tim Duncan ('14 SA): 19 pts, 9 reb
Manu Ginobili ('14 SA): 14 pts, 5 reb, 8 ast
Tim Duncan ('07 SA): 28 pts, 10 reb, 4 ast
The visitors used a 15-2 run that spanned much of the first quarter to help build a solid lead, but were only able to lead by three at quarter's end, thanks in part to a Tim Duncan dunk with one second left. The '14 Spurs scored the next four to open the second, then pushed the lead to ten with 7:30 left in the half. They would get it as high as 16 with a Tiago Splitter dunk with about a minute and a half left, and took that 16 point advantage to the locker room. Six straight from the '07 Spurs cut it back to ten early in the third, but the '14 Spurs were able to get it way up to 19 with 3:22 left. But the hosts closed the period on a 7-1 run to get back within 13 with 12 minutes to play to avoid elimination. They weren't able to dig into the margin really any further; it took until about a minute left for the '07 Spurs to cut the margin down to single digits. They did manage to get within four with 18 seconds left, and after '14 Tim Duncan missed a couple free throws, Tony Parker hit a quick pull up jumper with ten seconds left to make it a one score game. Duncan would hit both of his free throws on the other end on the ensuing possession, and we lose our first group winner of the tournament.
Tim Duncan ('14 SA): 15 pts, 15 reb
Tony Parker ('14 SA): 26 pts
Manu Ginobilli ('07 SA): 23 pts, 6 reb, 6 ast
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