2014 Death to the BCS Playoffs: Week 14 Edition

I get to do one last practice bracket before I have to put together the real thing. Good thing, too.

The College Football Playoff Selection Committee has had some disagreements, which are to be expected, but they've done a decent job so far this year, including last week, even if it disagreed with my last bracket. Looking back, I feel like I may have goofed on that one. Fortunately, it was just a mock.

In case you aren't familiar with how Dan Wetzel, Josh Peter and Jeff Passan set up their playoff formula, it was a sixteen-team field. All of the conference champions make the playoff, and the rest of the bracket is filled in with at-large teams. The higher seeds get home field advantage through the first three rounds, which incentivizes the regular season rather than cheapen it. They found their own way to determine the field, but never officially published it. I have my own setup using metrics both of my design and designed by others.

We start by loosely looking at Non-Conference Schedule Strength (NCSS) to determine how well each team scheduled games it could control, albeit years in advance. It rewards going on the road and/or facing teams from Power conferences, and punishes facing lower level competition. To a larger degree, I use First Degree and Second Degree Playoff Points (PP1 and PP2, respectively) to see how good each team was and how good the teams they beat were. From there, I add in other opinions in the form of computer rankings that take margin of victory into account. These formulas were written by the late David Rothman (ROTH) and Jeff Sagarin (SAG). Combining these factors, I try to build a fair playoff bracket that culminates in a trip to Arlington, Texas, the site of the national championship game.

So for one final time... let's build a mock bracket.

1. Alabama (11-1, SEC "Champion"): NCSS- 3, PP1- 64, PP2- 29.3, ROTH- 1, SAG- 1 (LW: 3) 
2. Florida State (12-0, ACC "Champion"): NCSS- 4, PP1- 67, PP2- 24.9, ROTH- 7, SAG- 17 (LW: 2)
3. Ohio State (11-1, Big Ten "Champion"): NCSS- 6, PP1- 69, PP2- 29.5, ROTH- 12, SAG- 13 (LW: 1) 
4. Oregon (11-1, Pac 12 "Champion"): NCSS- 2, PP1- 61, PP2- 26.5, ROTH- 3, SAG- 5 (LW: 4)
5. Mississippi State (10-2, At Large): NCSS- 3, PP1- 52, PP2- 24.0, ROTH- 4, SAG- 4 (LW: 6) 
6. Baylor (10-1, Big 12 "Champion"): NCSS- 2, PP1- 43, PP2- 17.2, ROTH- 5, SAG- 8 (LW: 9)
7. TCU (10-1, At Large): NCSS- 3, PP1- 50, PP2- 20.8, ROTH- 2, SAG- 3 (LW: 10)
8. Boise State (10-2, Mountain West "Champion"): NCSS- 6, PP1- 65, PP2- 25.5, ROTH- 31, SAG- 33 (LW: 11) 
9. Georgia Tech (10-2, At Large): NCSS- 5, PP1- 60, PP2- 28.7, ROTH- 21, SAG- 18 (LW- NR)
10. Arizona (10-2, At Large): NCSS- 4, PP1- 59, PP2- 25.6, ROTH- 14, SAG- 23 (LW- NR)
11. Ole Miss (9-3, At Large): NCSS- 2, PP1- 64, PP2- 34.6, ROTH- 6, SAG- 2 (LW- NR) 
12. UCLA (9-3, At Large): NCSS- 6, PP1- 62, PP2- 30.8, ROTH- 17, SAG- 20 (LW: 5)  
13. Marshall (11-1, Conference USA "Champion"): NCSS- 4, PP1- 48, PP2- 15.5, ROTH- 42, SAG- 32 (LW: 7)  
14. Memphis (9-3, American Athletic "Champion"): NCSS- 6, PP1- 30, PP2- 10.7, ROTH- 49, SAG- 42 (LW: 14)
15. Northern Illinois (10-2, MAC "Champion"): NCSS- 7, PP1- 40, PP2- 15.1, ROTH- 71, SAG- 77 (LW: 15)
16. Georgia Southern (9-3, Sun Belt Champion): NCSS- 7, PP1- 31, PP2- 8.7, ROTH- 75, SAG- 67 (LW: 16) 

Out of the Playoffs: Georgia (8), Michigan State (12), Colorado State (13)

Photo by Joshua L. Jones (redandblack.com)

Georgia got bumped as a result of their third loss of the season, and it seemed only fair to give the team that vanquished them their spot, especially considering that Georgia Tech, after weeks of consideration for a spot, finally have the numbers to back it up. Arizona, after beating in-state rival ASU and knocking on the door to 60 PP1 make their way back into the tournament. Normally for me, three losses is your kill shot when it comes to making the dance as an at-large, but UCLA has one of the best PP1's in the nation and wins over teams like Arizona, who are in the tournament. This was the same logic I used when I gave Ole Miss the last bid back into the tournament over two-loss teams like Wisconsin and Missouri, both of whom are playing for a conference championship next weekend. Colorado State and Michigan State, both at 10-2, were knocked out in favor of these teams based on lower PP1's, as well as Colorado State not having good enough computer rankings (or PP2, for that matter). Michigan State just gets a bout of tough luck. They're one of the teams I feel worst about dropping out, as their two losses have come to the #3 and #4 seeds, but they didn't beat a playoff team, much less a team in consideration at the end today.

Photo uncredited (obtained from official Alabama Athletics website)

As for seeding, I had things to fix. Alabama, after actually playing somebody, can get its top seed back, while FSU got through its regular season slate without a loss, despite some close calls. They earned three home games, even if some prognosticators aren't high on them for it. This drops PP1 leader Ohio State to the #3 seed, with Oregon coming up right behind them. Ohio State is likely in the Playoffs regardless of how they do against Wisconsin, but the loss of JT Barrett hurts a lot. Meanwhile, I'm bumping my two Big XII teams up, with Baylor continuing to get the edge over TCU because of that head to head win. Mississippi State's Playoff Points keep it ahead of both at the #5 seed. Meanwhile, I'm giving a different mid-major the last first round home game in Boise State. They're the current placeholder champion, and their 65 PP1 is one of the best in the nation. They're 0-1 against playoff teams (Ole Miss), but those numbers get them the higher seed.

Photo by Chris Tilley (AP)

I put my new at-large teams in right after the Broncos, with Georgia Tech getting to visit the blue turf. Arizona gets TCU in what would be a great game, and Ole Miss gets its second chance by traveling to Baylor. UCLA drops far, and now has to travel to face Mississippi State. Then down at the bottom, Marshall takes a huge dive after losing its first game of the year and get rewarded with a trip to Eugene. Memphis, NIU and Georgia Southern all hold serve. Georgia Southern is our first team to officially lock up a berth to the playoffs, so the quotation marks around "Champion" have been removed. They're likely locked into that 16 seed, unless someone like NIU or Marshall fall in their conference title games. Also, I like the idea of a 2013 Orange Bowl rematch between NIU and FSU.

Overall, there are no rematches from during the season in Round 1, which is something I try to aim for if possible. In Round 2, the only rematches I found would require Georgia Southern to pull off the upset in Tuscaloosa, or UCLA to pull off an upset to go to Eugene. Round 3 has more possibilities; Alabama and Mississippi State could face off again, while TCU and Baylor could have a grudge match on the other side of the bracket. It requires some upsets either way, which is how it should be designed if possible. I just happened to luck out.

This is the last unofficial bracket for the 2014 campaign. This coming week, conference championships get decided, and official berths get locked in. If upsets happen, it will throw the bracket into some chaos, and teams that currently own at large bids may get knocked off for placeholder "champions". If your team still has games remaining, good luck to them next week!