The opening round of the Death to the BCS Playoffs went as expected, for the most part. The top five seeds all advanced, and three lower seeds pulled off the upsets to advance. They all have to go on the road for a second straight week, while the four teams that made the College Football Playoff all get their second straight home game.
So far, I'm actually pretty happy with how things have turned out. In reality, Memphis played poorly but managed a late rally to win in double overtime against BYU before an ugly brawl broke out. They couldn't capitalize on early FSU mistakes in the first round and lost 30-6. Meanwhile, Marshall blew out NIU in Boca Raton, which lends credence to Marshall making it interesting at Ohio State while the Huskies got blown out by Oregon.
Like the first round, this will be a best-of-three simulation in a bit of an effort to minimize luck. Weather conditions around the time of kickoff will be taken into account courtesy of weather.com to make the simulations more accurate. To ensure that any injured players don't impact the proceedings, I check on player statuses from Don Best's handicapping website. All simulations are provided by WhatIfSports.com. Let's set up the Final Four.
12pm Game
(10)Missouri @ (2)Florida State
Game 2: (2)FSU 42, (10)MIZZ 27
I think maybe the Seminoles got the kinks out last week. They recovered their own fumble on their first possession, and Jameis Winston scrambled for a 15 yard touchdown to open the scoring. Another good defensive stand led to Winston attacking through the air to make it 14-0. Missouri responded with a 58 yard screen to set up a Russell Hansbrough touchdown from seven yards out. Missouri's defense still couldn't stop the Noles, who made it 21-7 early in the second with a Dalvin Cook touchdown run. Missouri forced a fumble on FSU's next drive, but couldn't turn it into anything, and Karlos Williams caught a screen pass and ran it in from 76 yards out to make it 28-7. Missouri responded with a strong ground game that led to another Hansbrough touchdown, but a personal foul gave the Seminoles some free yards and led to a 14 yard touchdown pass to Ermon Lane. Missouri had a punt blocked, but they forced another fumble to save the game and keep it 35-14 at the break. The Tigers bounced back in the second half, as Marty Mauk led a touchdown drive on their first possession of the second half, hitting Darius White from five yards out. They added a short field goal late to make it 35-24 before picking off Winston early in the fourth. Despite getting first and goal at the nine, they had to settle for a field goal to make it 35-27. Florida State would then burn a ton of clock by marching 86 yards in 13 plays for a touchdown by Cook to seal the deal. Cook ran 19 times for 105 yards and two scores, while Winston had a monster game, completing 25 of 36 passes for 383 yards, three touchdowns and only one interception while also rushing for a score. Russell Hansbrough led the Tigers with 87 yards rushing on 20 carries with two touchdowns, while Bud Sasser caught six passes for 104 yards. The Seminoles advanced despite fumbling five times in the game, losing two.
3pm Game
(5)Baylor @ (4)Ohio State
Game 2: (4)OSU 45, (5)BAY 24
The Buckeye offense got things started in a big way. Ohio State didn't face a third down on their opening drive en route to the end zone, with Jeff Heuerman hauling in a three yard touchdown from Cardale Jones. Bryce Petty hit Corey Coleman early on their first drive, but he lost the ball and the Buckeyes recovered. A facemask penalty moved them into scoring range, and they added a field goal to make it 10-0. Baylor went three-and-out, then couldn't stop the Buckeyes from converting a pair of third downs and then gave up a one yard touchdown run by Ezekiel Elliott on fourth and goal to make it 17-0. Bryce Petty finally got something going, hitting Jordan Feuerbacher for a 55 yard gain to set up a two yard touchdown run by Shock Linwood to get on the scoreboard. A pair of encroachments didn't help the Bears, as Ohio State marched again, with Devin Jones getting a ten yard touchdown from Cardale Jones to make it 24-7. Towards the end of the half, pinned inside their own ten, Petty hit Coleman for an 87 yard gain, and added a field goal as the clock expired to make it 24-10 at the break. Baylor kept up the momentum coming out of the locker room, marching 91 yards and converting four third downs, including a third and goal with another Linwood two yard touchdown to pull to within one score. Ohio State then played the field position game well, and took advantage of a very short field for Jones to hit Heuerman from 11 yards out for another touchdown. Baylor answered quickly, with Linwood taking a draw 36 yards to the house to make it 31-24, but they couldn't contain Ezekiel Elliott, who ran 74 yards up the left side to pay dirt. Ohio State sealed it with another touchdown with 6:29 left. Cardale Jones finished with a 25 of 34 line for 316 yards and four touchdowns, while Ezekiel Elliott added 174 yards and two scores on 25 carries. Bryce Petty completed 17 of his 30 passes for 385 yards while Shock Linwood ran for 103 yards and three touchdowns on 22 carries.
6pm Game
(9)Arizona @ (1)Alabama
Game 2: (1)ALA 28, (9)ARZ 21 (2OT)
In the driving rain, here I thought the one triple overtime session would be it and the second sim wouldn't be as dramatic. We lucked out. Arizona started things out well, going 76 yards in 15 plays, including a fourth and 11 conversion to set up a two yard Nick Wilson touchdown run. Alabama responded early in the second quarter with a nine play drive capped off by a 19 yard touchdown from Blake Sims to O.J. Howard. A couple drives later, Arizona moved into Tide territory, but Anu Solomon was picked off by Cyrus Jones. They couldn't capitalize, but would put together a decent drive late in the half, overcoming a pair of holding penalties to pick up a 39 yard field goal at the buzzer to end the half. On their first possession of the second half, Arizona punted on fourth and 5 from the Alabama 36 yard line, and the Crimson Tide took advantage of a pair of defensive penalties to move the ball downfield, but they had to settle for a 22 yard field goal. Arizona finally got going after that, putting together an 18 play drive that went 81 yards in 7:15, converting multiple third downs, with Wilson punching it in from a yard out to give Arizona a 14-13 lead. Alabama's Adam Griffith missed a 31 yard field goal, and Anu Solomon went back to work, blending the run and pass to march 80 yards in 11 plays, with Wilson punching it in again, this time from two yards out to make it 21-13 with just 2:21 left. Blake Sims didn't panic, hitting Amari Cooper for a 30 yard pickup on the first play from scrimmage to help set up T.J. Yeldon, who took a draw play 27 yards for a touchdown, and O.J. Howard caught the tying two point try. Both teams had chances to end it in regulation, but we needed extra time to decide. In the first overtime, the Wildcats failed to pick up a first down and Casey Skowron missed a 38 yard field goal. Yeldon then lost a fumble on a 13 yard run to force a second overtime. Howard and Yeldon picked up nine yards each on a pass and a run, respectively, then Sims called his own number for the rest. After picking up two yards, Solomon threw back-to-back incompletions before taking a Xzavier Dickson sack to end the contest. Arizona's Nick Wilson had a strong game, rushing for 121 yards on 25 carries and finding pay dirt three times, while Anu Solomon completed 24 of 40 passes for 239 yards, but was picked off once and took that game-ending sack. For the Tide, T.J. Yeldon ran for 117 yards and a score on 22 carries while Blake Sims completed 24 of 37 passes for 319 yards and a score, while picking up nine of his 10 rushing yards on his twelfth and final carry that resulted in the deciding points.
9pm Game
(11)Ole Miss @ (3)Oregon
Game 2: (3)ORE 27, (11)MISS 24 (OT)
Another overtime game! The Rebels controlled play early, marching into Duck territory and coming away with a 37 yard field goal to open the scoring. Marcus Mariota would not be denied, overcoming a couple procedure penalties on third downs and converting a fourth and 17. They couldn't punch it in from goal to go, and hit a 21 yard field goal to tie. Ole Miss got great field position after an Oregon punt, and Jaylen Walton took a pitch 45 yards for a touchdown to make it 10-3 late in the first. The defenses took over from there for a while until finally Oregon got good field position off of a punt, then took advantage of a late hit out of bounds on Mariota to get free yards on a broken play, and Royce Freeman punched it in from two yards out to tie the game with less than a minute to go in the half. The Rebels ran out of time before the break to score, but continued their momentum on the opening drive of the second half, going 74 yards in ten plays, converting three third downs, and capped it off with Bo Wallace hitting Quincy Adeboyejo from nine yards out to make it 17-10. Oregon was able to get down to the Mississippi six yard line, but a holding penalty and a sack of Mariota forced a 32 yard field goal. Wallace marched the Rebels quickly downfield, and early in the third quarter hit Markell Pack for an 18 yard catch and run touchdown to make it 24-13. Mariota and the Ducks answered back just as fast, with Freeman going up the gut for a 12 yard touchdown, and Darren Carrington hauled in a Mariota pass for the deuce. Then with 2:50 left, the Ducks got the ball down three. Mariota led them to the Ole Miss 31 before penalties stalled the drive. They picked up enough to get a 42 yard field goal to tie the game with 18 seconds left and forced overtime. The Rebels would overcome a delay of game penalty before the first play to manage a first and goal from the two. Wallace tried to hit Adeboyejo three straight times, but failed on each, and Andrew Fletcher, who had hit from 37 earlier, missed an extra-point range field goal. Royce Freeman opened Oregon's possession with a 13 yard run to pretty much seal it, and Aidan Schneider hit the winning 26 yard field goal to push Oregon on to the semifinals. Marcus Mariota struggled for much of the game, only completing 17 of 27 passes for 194 yards while getting just nine yards rushing on 19 carries and taking five sacks. Royce Freeman saved the day though, picking up 200 yards and a pair of touchdowns on 28 carries. Bo Wallace had a decent day for the Rebels, going 23 of 40 for 298 yards and two scores while getting sacked four times. Billy Busch had two of Mississippi's five sacks of Mariota.
To see the updated bracket, click here.
Next week might be the final simulation for the season, depending on results. If the same two teams make the national championship game in Dallas, I'm just going to let that speak for itself, since play on a real field trumps all. I do find it interesting though that there were no second round upsets, and we have all chalk. That tells me that the committee got it right, especially since Ohio State, who got the #4 seed in the College Football Playoff with some controversy, knocked out one of the teams a lot of people wanted to see in over them. The system works, and we had some great games. It's just too bad they didn't happen in reality for the world to see.
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