COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em Week 15

I'm not going to say panic mode has set in at COAS Headquarters... but panic is setting in at COAS Headquarters.

That gap between myself and Adam that had been pretty comfortable for a month or two is narrowing... a lot. With three weeks to go, Adam is easily in shouting distance, and Grabbing the Bull Horns blogger Geoffrey Clark added to his overall lead.

Adam has figured out some of the NFL's nuances, leading to his taking six of the seven disputed games from last week. I need to turn things around fast. Of course, I've been saying that for a few weeks now. Now it's crunch time.

Before we get to the Week 15 picks, I'd like to take a moment to plug some college football stuff. The 2014 Death to the BCS Playoffs begin on December 20th. You can view the official bracket here, and one of the features BracketMaker.com allows is a prediction system for created tournaments. An account here is free, and you can visit this page to submit a prediction for how the 15 games of the tournament go.

Shameless plug is over. In NFL ranks, Adam and I disagree on eight of the 16 games this week. I'm scared. Let's see how this goes.

Thursday Night

Arizona Cardinals @ St. Louis Rams (-3.5)
Lucas: Cardinals. I'm kind of shocked Arizona is a dog this week, much less by more than a field goal. Talk about Nobody Believes in Us.
Adam: Rams. Solid Rams D coming off of 2 back-to-back shutouts vs a back-up QB and back-up RBs. I’ll take the D all day. I see this game going one of two ways. Either a high scoring affair or another shut-out/low scoring affair. Can’t stop the Mason.

Sunday, Early Afternoon

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Atlanta Falcons (+2.5)
Lucas: Falcons. Even if he's hurt, Julio Jones scares me. Though maybe that's just the last bits of shock from him going off in the second half against Green Bay to get a backdoor cover and narrow my lead against Adam.

Adam: Steelers. I see this as a high scoring game- or so I hope as my fantasy playoff win may rest on how good Matt Ryan can be. I don’t foresee many punts in this game. Also could depend on if Julio can play - I think he will but you never know.


Green Bay Packers @ Buffalo Bills (+5.5)
Lucas: Packers. I thought long and hard about this one, but even with a decent Bills defense... do you really think Kyle Orton can keep up in a shootout with Aaron Rodgers?
Adam: Packers. Rodgers and team will have no problem with this group. Though giving up as many as they did to the Falcons in the 2nd half of Monday nights game could make things interesting if the D is not there. But I still think the Pack win by a TD or more.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Cleveland Browns (+0.5)
Lucas: Browns. I'll give Johnny Football the benefit of the doubt for one week. I still think he's overrated.
Adam: Browns. Johnny Football. That is all.

Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Colts (-6.5)
Lucas: Texans. Sure, Indy's pass protection has been pretty good this season. Yet J.J. Watt still had two sacks in the first game between these two. Give me Andrew Luck heroics to fall just short of the line.
Adam: Colts. I know the Colts had to pull on out last week. But they did and that is the true test of a champion… Regardless Luck does not need any luck this week. Barring another crazy career week by Fitzpatrick, I don’t think the Colts will be in any danger of not covering the spread.

Oakland Raiders @ Kansas City Chiefs (-10.5)
Lucas: Raiders. I doubt it will be shock the world-type stuff, but I'm taking the points. Get well soon, Eric Berry.

Adam: Raiders. The Raiders beat the 49ers last week, and their first win came against the Chiefs a few weeks back. Now the only difference in these teams is the Raiders have some confidence and the game is in KC. KC wins but I like the points here.

Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots (-7.5)
Lucas: Patriots. Miami is falling apart, and this is Brady at home in December. I've also been instructed by Rascal to pick the Patriots because of Gronk's photo shoot with some adorable kittens.

Adam: Patriots.  Here's to Gronk and overcoming the Bieber curse (or so Lucas called it). I would selfishly love to see the Pats get up big early with a TD or 2 to Gronk. This would keep Miller quiet and would really help my fantasy team in the playoffs.
Lucas note:

Washington Redskins @ New York Giants (-6.5)
Lucas: Redskins. I'm only taking the points because I have to pick somebody in this game. At this point, I just want to see these teams break the record for most combined turnovers in a game, just for teh lulz.
Adam: Redskins. I know what everyone is thinking… How could you even think of picking the Redskins? Well, even a blind squirrel has to find a nut every once in a while. Plus I need some games that I can make up some more points on Lucas. *fingers crossed he did not pick the Redskins*
Lucas note: I mentioned this earlier in the year, but Adam and I decide on our picks separately. Mine usually get done before Adam sends his to me. Thus:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Carolina Panthers (-5.5)
Lucas: Panthers. So you flip your pickup four times... and come away with "two transverse process fractures" as the worst of your damage? Maybe Cam Newton is Superman, after all.

Adam: Buccaneers. No Newton may actually be a good think for Carolina.  They will rely on Stewart more.  And Greg Olsen has had himself quite a nice year so far.  Only a few catches away from a career high.  But I think the Bucs are looking for some pride.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Baltimore Ravens (-13.5)
Lucas: Jaguars. Baltimore is starting to get hot at the right time, but we can't forget that their pass defense isn't great, so two touchdowns is a lot to lay. I look forward to your 400 yard, four touchdown day, Mr. Flacco.
Adam: Jaguars. Wow 13.5 points. If I have said it once, I have said it a thousand times, 10+ points in the NFLis a lot for spreads. I will take the points here and hope that Flacco does not go off.

Sunday, Late Afternoon

Denver Broncos @ San Diego Chargers (+3.5)
Lucas: Chargers. Look, someone had to give in last week's game between teams that historically catch fire in December. I'm trying San Diego again this week.
Adam: Broncos. How many games did Manning go with a TD? I wonder what the odds are in Vegas that he does not throw another TD in this game. Yeah, I don’t see that cashing. Manning will throw for a ton of yds and several TDs. The Chargers will have to be on the top of their game in order to win with this short spread.

New York Jets @ Tennessee Titans (+1.5)
Lucas: Jets. 

Adam: Titans.  … [flush sound]

Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions (-7.5)
Lucas: Lions. So to recap, I'm supposed to take the points with an offense that's been roughly average, albeit with a pretty good rookie quarterback, against one of the best defenses in the league, when the underdog's defense had trouble with Geno freaking Smith? How, pray tell, do you plan to defend against Megatron?

Adam: Vikings. What did I say last week? “Look for another big game from newcomer Charles Johnson against the weak Jets Secondary.” And who did not have the balls to play him in fantasy… My luck will be that he does not have a good week but as my only real viable flex option I hope he can have one.

San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks (-9.5)
Lucas: Seahawks. I'm not crossing Richard Sherman when it comes to Seattle-San Francisco.

Adam: Seahawks. I really hate 9.5 spreads. It’s basically like 10 and you know my general feelings on 10+ spreads. I just don’t see any way Seattle does not win this game. And I don’t see any way they don’t win by at least a TD. I am just hoping it is a TD and at least a FG.

Sunday Night

Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5)
Lucas: Eagles. I mean... the trouncing on Thanksgiving has to count for something. 
Adam: Cowboys. How is it possible that Murray is still standing. He already has 320 carries (24+ average) for 1606 (123+ average/game, 5.02/carry). That is just sick.  He is on pace for just shy of 400 totes and 460 total touches. This is not human. Sky point for snatching him late in the 2nd round of my fantasy draft at 23rd overall.

Monday Night

New Orleans Saints @ Chicago Bears (+2.5)
Lucas: Saints. Somehow, Mel Tucker will take Jimmy Graham's combined three catches for 25 yards the last two weeks (all of it last week) means he's irrelevant and ignore him like he ignored Gronk in Week 8, while Trestman stares on with that blank look on his face after Graham catches his fourth touchdown midway through the third quarter.

Adam: Saints. Jimmy Grahm has been held to 3 catches for 25 yd over the past 2 games. There is no way that trend can last and certainly not against the Bears awesomely pitiful secondary. I am done tracking my predictions as I was not doing so well, but I predict blown coverage from Conte resulting in a 40+yd TD for the Saints.
Lucas note: I'd like to point out, again, that Adam and I make our picks separately. The fact that he has pretty much the same rationale as I did is pure coincidence. Also, I'm all for making fun of Chris Conte, but only as long as you realize that he is my mole dispatched to destroy the Bears' defense from within.

Records So Far
Lucas: 105-103 (6-10 last week)
Adam: 100-108 (11-5 last week)
Rascal: 1-2 (1-0 last week)