Sunday, December 7, 2014

2014 NCAA Playoff Points Rankings: Week 15

If you're reading this, the College Football Playoff Selection Committee has already made their choices for the inaugural playoff. But what about the better system? You know, the one where if you win your conference you're automatically in, and games are played on campuses for three rounds? We're going to find out soon.

The Committee released its final rankings earlier today, and they may or may not agree with what my final decision for the Death to the BCS Playoffs are going to be. First though, we need to run through the results from the weekend one final time.

I think last week I made decent decisions with the mock bracket, and amazingly, we didn't have any upsets in any conference title games. That will make my process for tomorrow's unveiling of the bracket that much easier.

As for Playoff Points, there aren't going to be many changes this week. Every game was in conference, and like I mentioned in looking at Playoff Points last week, conference championship games will not factor into Playoff Points, out of fairness to the American Athletic, Big XII, and Sun Belt conferences. It creates a more level playing field for when I decide seedings.

So for one final time this season, let's crunch some numbers. In case you need one last refresher on how this system works, you can refer back to my Week 1 Playoff Points post.


American Athletic
Wins: 5.45 (10th; LW: 10th)
PP1: 18.91 (9th; LW: 10th)
PP2: 11.00 (9th; LW: 10th)

ACC
Wins: 7.00 (T-3rd; LW: T-3rd)
PP1: 35.07 (4th; LW: 4th)
PP2: 22.63 (2nd; LW: 2nd)

Big 10
Wins: 7.00 (T-3rd; LW: T-3rd)
PP1: 35.36 (3rd; LW: 3rd)
PP2: 22.26 (3rd; LW: 3rd)

Big XII
Wins: 6.70 (5th; LW: 5th)
PP1: 30.60 (5th; LW: 6th)
PP2: 19.56 (5th; LW: 4th)

Conference USA
Wins: 5.85 (8th; LW: 8th)
PP1: 25.54 (8th; LW: 8th)
PP2: 16.34 (7th; LW: 6th)

Independents
Wins: 6.25 (T-6th; LW: T-6th)
PP1: 28.25 (6th; LW: 5th)
PP2: 16.37 (6th; LW: 7th)

MAC
Wins: 5.38 (9th; LW: 9th)
PP1: 18.77 (10th; LW: 9th)
PP2: 10.77 (10th; LW: 9th)

Mountain West
Wins: 6.25 (T-6th; LW: T-6th)
PP1: 26.17 (7th; LW: 7th)
PP2: 14.49 (8th; LW: 8th)

Pac 12
Wins: 7.08 (2nd; LW: 2nd)
PP1: 36.08 (2nd; LW: 2nd)
PP2: 21.34 (4th; LW: 5th)

SEC
Wins: 7.43 (1st; LW: 1st)
PP1: 40.14 (1st; LW: 1st)
PP2: 24.10 (1st; LW: 1st)

Sun Belt
Wins: 5.00 (11th; LW: 11th)
PP1: 14.73 (11th; LW: 11th)
PP2: 5.36 (11th; LW: 11th)


Note: While I round all numbers to the nearest hundredth for the purpose of convenience, the independents were they their own conference and the Mountain West have identical average win totals, as do the ACC and Big Ten. Also, the American Athletic Conference has a PP2 of 10.998, which gets rounded up to 11.00.

Photographer uncredited (Photo from AP)
Most conferences' win totals stayed the same, since the championship games weren't counted. There were some minor adjustments to be made though with some teams winning. First and foremost, congratulations goes to SMU for avoiding the 0-12 guillotine. That finally gives them some Playoff Points and gets rid of the annoying Error message I kept getting on my spreadsheet from them not having any PP2 to factor into an average. Hopefully, three months of that didn't create a black hole because of my continuing to divide by zero.

Photo by Kyle Robertson (Columbus Dispatch)
Looking at individual team Playoff Points, Ohio State finished tops in the country as the only team to notch 70 First Degree points. Florida State came in second with 68. A surprising team finished third: Boise State, with 65, then Alabama and Ole Miss tied with 64 to round out the Top Five. Three other teams finished with at least 60, while eight schools finished in the fifties. As for Second Degree Points, a majority of teams made it to double digits (notable exceptions: the entire Sun Belt), with several cracking 20. Five had at least 30: Virginia Tech, Ohio State, UCLA, Auburn, and Ole Miss. If you want to see how each team finished the year individually (not counting the Army-Navy game next weekend, as it has no playoff bearings), you can view my spreadsheet here.

With this being the case, the following teams have locked up automatic bids in the Death to the BCS Playoffs:
  • Memphis (American Athletic)*
  • Florida State (ACC)
  • Ohio State (Big Ten)
  • Baylor (Big 12)**
  • Marshall (Conference USA)
  • Northern Illinois (MAC)
  • Boise State (Mountain West)
  • Oregon (Pac 12)
  • Alabama (SEC)
  • Georgia Southern (Sun Belt)***
*The American Athletic Conference decided for this season that they'd do a weird tiebreaker and let the Selection Committee rankings decide who got their automatic bowl bid. Memphis seemed to be the highest in most of the metrics I could look up. In terms of head to head among the three, Memphis beat Cincinnati, so I'm giving them the bid.
**Baylor and TCU both finished 11-1 and 8-1 in conference play. In spite of Bob Bowlsby's declaration last week (he's a moron), Baylor gets the automatic bid due to their head to head win over TCU. You know, the regular season is sacred and all that.
***This was Georgia Southern's first year at the FBS level. By NCAA rules, they were technically not allowed to play in the postseason. While I understand the rule, I think it's ridiculous; they swept their Sun Belt schedule. They're in the playoffs. Deal with it.

Which six teams will join these honored ten? Check back tomorrow morning when I crunch all the numbers and unveil the official 2014 Death to the BCS Playoff Bracket!

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