Thursday, April 2, 2015

2015 MLB Preview: NL Central

First things first: Happy birthday to my dad, who helped nurture my love of sports in general and baseball in particular. He also helped birth my love of the Cubs, which may or may not be a good thing given history.

We're onto the National League Central as we move past the halfway point of the division previews. If you want to refer back to my predictions from last year, you can find them here.


1. St. Louis Cardinals
Last year: 90-72 (1st in NL Central), Lost in NLCS; 4 wins below COAS Prediction
It seems like every year, no matter what happens, these guys are always in the hunt. There's some concern about Adam Wainwright, who's nursing an abdominal strain, but the rest of the rotation is excellent. Meanwhile, the Redbirds proceeded to retool their lineup with talent from the farm, and made a great trade for Jason Heyward to fill the hole in right field. Barring some sort of mass amounts of injuries, the Cards will be atop the Central again... at least for now.
2015 Prediction: 90-72

2. Pittsburgh Pirates
Last year: 88-74 (2nd in NL Central), Lost in NL Wild Card Game; 4 wins below COAS Prediction
Losing catcher Russell Martin hurts a lot, but otherwise, this team is still well built. They have a solid rotation aided by the addition of A.J. Burnett, and the lineup is solid aside from questions at catcher. Meanwhile, Andrew McCutchen, even without his dreadlocks, is still one of the best all around players in the game. Give me the Pirates to make the playoffs again and give St. Louis a run for its money.
2015 Prediction: 88-74, Wild Card

3. Chicago Cubs
Last year: 73-89 (5th in NL Central), Missed playoffs; 5 wins above COAS Prediction
Finally, after a few years of rebuilding that prompted me to name my fantasy team "#Cubes" last year, contention is on the horizon. The defection of Joe Maddon to manage this club was probably the biggest move of the offseason, though now some pitching is starting to show up. Jon Lester will anchor a rotation that has some good young pieces, including Jake Arrieta, who was phenomenal last year. This will help out the offense, which got a boost from recoveries by Starlin Castro and Anthony Rizzo, as well as the late season call-up of Jorge Soler. Let's be honest though: the season doesn't really begin until about two weeks in when finally, Kris Bryant, Destroyer of Baseballs arrives. Next year is here.
2015 Prediction: 83-79

4. Cincinnati Reds
Last year: 76-86 (4th in NL Central), Missed playoffs; 9 wins below COAS Prediction
The Reds lost some of the depth in their rotation, but there are still some decent pieces in place, as Johnny Cueto and Homer Bailey will be good, but when the corpse of Jason Marquis is your fifth starter... have fun with that. Their lineup should be better this year, as I doubt Joey Votto and Jay Bruce will struggle like they did in 2014. The key though will be if Billy Hamilton can get on base more than he did last year. If he does... have fun, NL catchers.
2015 Prediction: 73-89

5. Milwaukee Brewers
Last year: 82-80 (3rd in NL Central), Missed playoffs; 10 wins above COAS Prediction
After leading the Central for much of the summer, the Brewers collapsed and missed the postseason. To add insult to injury, their top starter Yovani Gallardo is gone. It's up to Kyle Lohse and Matt Garza to pick up the slack, something I'm not totally convinced of. This team will probably score its fair share of runs though with a good middle of the lineup that includes Jonathan Lucroy, a man who pissed off the St. Louis metropolitan area merely by being a good catcher (and anyone who pisses off that metro area is okay in my book). They need big years from guys like Ryan Braun, new first baseman Adam Lind and Aramis Ramirez if they want to stay out of the basement.
2015 Prediction: 71-91

Tomorrow, we head west to finish out the final two days of previews. We'll look at the AL West in the morning.

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