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Hopefully I won't be as much of an idiot on the Web. Looking back at predictions, I feel dumb about a few things (picking the Vikings at 9-7, underrating Kansas City, San Diego and Arizona), but I nailed a few teams right on the money, so there's that. Ultimately, I think I only got about half of the playoff teams correct though.
Anyway, like I did last year, I'm going to give my (unofficial) votes for the major NFL awards. It's been pretty accurate so far, but I'm certainly open to other guys winning that I don't give my vote to. Let's get to the results.
Offensive Rookie of the Year
Eddie Lacy- RB, Packers.
284 carries, 1178 yds (4.1 YPC), 11 TD; 35 rec, 257 yds, 0 TD.
Maybe a little biased, given my already professed allegiance. I was watching yesterday's game with my future father-in-law, who I don't think knew much about Green Bay's offense. But he saw Lacy run a couple times, had no idea who he was, but remarked how big a guy Lacy is. And that's been part of what made me love having him this season. This man just does not go down. The 4.1 average isn't fantastic, especially considering he's tied for third in average among all rookies with at least 100 carries (behind Montee Ball and Andre Ellington, and tied with Giovani Bernard). Of those guys, Bernard is probably the only contender, but there are others. Keenan Allen had 71 catches for over 1000 yards and eight touchdowns, a big reason why Phil Rivers was back to his old form for the Chargers. I think you could even argue that Le'Veon Bell of the Steelers is a more complete back and he had a great year, no question (860 yards rushing and 8 touchdowns, plus another 399 yards receiving). I'm sticking with Lacy based on one major factor: Aaron Rodgers effectively missed half the season, only playing 9 games (missing most of that first Bears game). With arguably the best quarterback in the game gone, teams could key in more on Lacy... and he still topped 1000 yards rushing. The defense rests.
Defensive Rookie of the Year
Alec Ogletree- OLB, Rams.
117 tackles (94 solo), 1.5 sacks, 1 INT (1 TD), 6 FF.
Defense is always way harder to pick for than offense, and admittedly I didn't watch as much as I maybe should have. Ultimately this award came down to a call between Ogletree and Kiko Alonso of Buffalo. Alonso led all rookies in total tackles, but was credited with assists on a lot of them (out of 159 tackles he was credited with, 72 were assists). Alonso also had two sacks, four picks, a forced fumble and a pair of recoveries. You can make the argument there, but I'll go with a slightly better all-around performance.
Offensive Player of the Year
Peyton Manning- QB, Broncos.
450-659, 5477 yds, 55 TD, 10 INT; 32 carries, -31 yds, 1 TD.
Look at that stat line again. That's absurd. It started from that first game against Baltimore when he lit them up for seven touchdowns, and Manning ultimately never looked back. The yardage and touchdown totals are NFL records, and will probably never be surpassed unless the rules go way more pro-offense than they already are. Also, that rushing touchdown he had in Dallas was one of the plays of the year. I did think about the possibility of LeSean McCoy with his 2000+ total yard season, but I can't ignore the record-breaking numbers.
Defensive Player of the Year
Vontaze Burfict- OLB, Bengals.
171 tackles (114 solo), 3 sacks, 1 INT, 1 FF, 2 FR (1 TD).
This was a hard one to pick too. Two dozen guys notched double digit sacks this season, and a lot of them were involved in a lot of fumbles, but I prefer someone who has an all-around game if there's no one who had an otherworldly season, so sorry Roberts Mathis and Quinn. Burfict led the league in combined (solo and assist) tackles, and was third in the solo category while doing a lot of damage for a pretty good unit. I was definitely tempted by Luke Kuechly of the Panthers and guys like Richard Sherman as well though.
Coach of the Year
Bill Belichick- Patriots.
12-4, 1st in AFC East, #2 seed in AFC. 0 win improvement over 2012, 3 wins above COAS Prediction.
This was a fairly tough call, to be honest. Halfway through the year, I would have said Andy Reid, but his Chiefs went 2-5 after a 9-0 start. I was also seriously mulling over picking Chip Kelly. If they had a First Year Coach of the Year Award (why don't they?), he'd win. But in the end I'm taking Belichick based on everything the Pats had to deal with this season. Of their four losses, you could argue two of them came down to bad calls by the officials/Luke Kuechly having some dirt on Roger Goodell and/or Alberto Riveron. This team was heavily beset by injuries on both sides of the ball, and Darth Hoodie also had to deal with the preseason mess with Aaron Hernandez. Despite all those distractions, they went out and kicked butt to the same degree they do every fall.
Most Valuable Player
Peyton Manning- QB, Broncos.
450-659, 5477 yds, 55 TD, 10 INT; 32 carries, -31 yds, 1 TD; 13-3 record, 1st in AFC West, #1 seed in AFC.
Record breaking numbers, plus the best record in the AFC? Come on. You take him off Denver and this team is lucky to make .500, much less win the division. I don't know who you'd argue would be the closest competitor. Brady? Brees? Maybe Andrew Luck as a long shot? You could throw Aaron Rodgers in that hat based on the Peyton Manning 2011 argument of "Without him, this team is nothing", but I picked Rodgers as the unquestioned 2011 MVP, so that argument goes out the window. Also, look at that face and tell me you want to argue with that.
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