2017 NCAA Playoff Points Rankings: Week 10

I'm back on my normal schedule with these posts, which is good because there was chaos again this past week.

As I did last week and all season to date, on Monday I go through what each team pulled off over the weekend, then run the numbers comparing every conference to each other. We've for the most part settled into a pecking order, but some teams have better metrics than others. I'll look into team rankings after the conference ones.

If you need a refresher on what each score stands for and how they get computed, you can view that back in my season introductory post.

COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em Week 9

In the wake of maybe the greatest NFL trade deadline ever, the coalition returns to picking games against the spread!

Adam is back home from California, though he did pretty well for himself out on the West Coast. He took four of our seven disputed games to increase his lead over me to three games. That said, Geoffrey Clark has increased his own lead atop our group. You can take a look at our ESPN standings here, and a full breakdown of our picks in relation to each other here.

When Adam sent me his picks this week, he included this little nugget.

I was reminded a few days ago that this week (Week 9) 3 years ago I executed the most fabulous picks... cheerleaders... all cheerleaders... well alas not this week; I have limited time between work, packing, moving boxes and painting... things are changing for the Quinn's... much like the NFL this past week.

...and you thought I was kidding about Adam making picks based on cheerleaders. His family's move just down the road a little bit in the suburbs of Dallas takes priority, but he still found time for his weekly contribution. This week, we disagree on just four games out of 13.

2017 NCAA NCSS Rankings: Week 10

Happy Halloween from Confessions of a Sportscaster! Unfortunately, this morning I don't really have anything scary cooked up for you. Instead, I'm back to looking at college football schedules.

The fun part is that tonight begins the reign of MACtion as we get our middle of the week football fix. Last week had a little MACtion on Thursday night, but not the Tuesday-Wednesday mix of stuff that's fun. There are a handful of Thursday games though to take a look at as well.

If you need a refresher on how this metric works, you can read that in my season introductory post. Let's look at what we've got coming up.

2017 NCAA Death to the BCS Playoffs: Week 9 Mock Bracket

I think this past weekend was the sort of weekend Dan Wetzel, Josh Peter, and Jeff Passan had in mind when they penned the masterpiece you see to your left. There was a ton of chaos, and so many games with playoff impact were played that invoked said chaos. It's further proof that the playoff system they envisioned enhanced the regular season rather than dilute it.

If you haven't read this book, I highly recommend it. But their basic premise for an ideal playoff is this: 16 teams, with each conference getting an automatic bid for its champion, and the field being filled by deserving at large squads. I love the premise, and as such have tried to fill a bracket with their methodology for the last few years. Here's the best part about it though: higher seeds host for the first three rounds, so we're playing games in iconic stadiums on campus in front of partisan crowds instead of neutral site stadiums that may end up half empty. As such, the regular season really matters, because the difference between a 4 seed and a 5 seed is a second home game.

The tricky part comes in how to fill the field, and then how to seed it. To do that, I use a number of metrics. I begin with a glance at Non-Conference Schedule Strength (NCSS), which is a rough look at how tough of a non-conference slate teams are playing (basically, are they playing road games against Power Five opponents or a bunch of home games against Group of Five teams or FCS opponents). At the end of the day though, results matter. That's where First Degree (PP1), Second Degree (PP2), and Adjust Playoff Points (aPP) come in: they go beyond just a won-lost record and figure out how good the teams they beat truly are. Finally, to help reduce bias on my part and to give additional data points, I consult computer rankings compiled by Jeff Sagarin (SAG), a UCLA staff member using the late David Rothman's formula (ROTH), and from the website All My Sports Teams Suck (AMSTS). These factors all kind of organically combine to build the playoff field.

I'm at the point now where I do a mock bracket every week, at least once I can build it without screwing any undefeated teams out of a spot. With a number of them falling this past week, it may create some at large headaches, but we'll see how it goes!

2017 NCAA Playoff Points: Week 9

I'm running a little behind this week. With Halloween tomorrow and hosting a family party for several of Kristen's and my parent friends, other than scoreboard glancing I saw pretty much no college football over the weekend and didn't get to poring through results until today.

There was chaos over the weekend though, and the numbers we had last week will probably be vastly different this week.

So this morning, I'm going through all the results, and below you will see how each conference ranks in average win totals and the various forms of Playoff Points. If you need a refresher on how Playoff Points work, you can view that here.

2017 COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em Week 8

We're nearing the halfway point of the season

I'm pretty sure last week Adam and I set a record for groupthink, and we ended up splitting the two games we disagreed on. That keeps him a couple games ahead of me on the year. Meanwhile, Bulls Confidential blogger Geoffrey Clark padded his lead a little bit this week with a 2-1 week on hero picks. It's brought his average back down to earth a little bit, but he's still excelled in those games. You can view a full breakdown of our picks in relation to each other here. I share that primarily because the ESPN standings are off by a couple games on Adam's side since he picked wrong on there back in Week 1. Fortunately for him, the official standings are based on the picks we make here.

This week, all semblance of groupthink is gone as Adam and I disagree on seven games out of 13. He is in California this week on government business, but still found time in between his work and visiting local breweries to send a short set of picks.

2017 NCAA NCSS Rankings: Week 9

We only have a few short weeks left before we get to Championship Weekend, but there are still plenty of non-conference games left to be played. As such, it's time to take a look at the schedule again.

Last week saw us settle into what the pecking order basically is in terms of this metric: the Group of Five conference at the top, then the Power Five below them. Of course, some things can change, and they will.

If you need a refresher on how this metric works, you can read that in my season introductory post. Let's look at the schedule!