2017 NFL Wild Card Preview

For some reason, I've been getting a ton of hits lately on my 2015 Wild Card post. I guess I hit the sweet spot on SEO-related stuff without even meaning to, because most of those hits have come in the past few months. Whatever the case, we're onto the playoffs for the 2016 season, and I need to get a new post up.

In years past, I have also done an awards post, but I opted to skip that this year given the timing of everything and my lack of really paying super close attention to the NFL this year (contrary to my finally getting a winning record in the Pigskin Pick 'Em this season). But this is something I can't pass up.

12 teams have survived the past four months, and it's time to take a look at the road to Houston for Super Bowl LI.


Saturday Afternoon

(5) Oakland Raiders @ (4) Houston Texans

Oakland spent the season bucking the traditional trend of West Coast teams struggling out east in early games and looked like a lock for a first round bye. Unfortunately, then Derek Carr suffered a broken leg. Now backup Matt McGloin is out, which means Connor Cook will be under center for the Raiders. Fortunately for them, Oakland has a pretty good run game with Latavius Murray, and it's not like Cook has no weapons with Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree on the outsides. Oakland's defense is subpar, however, outside of guys like Khalil Mack. Fortunately, the Texans are not a good offensive team. Brock Osweiler will likely start at quarterback for Houston, and he was not good this season. Houston finished second worst in net yards per pass attempt and scored the fourth-fewest points in the league. Fortunately for the Texans, their defense was what carried them this season, especially against the pass. Connor Cook will have some trouble through the air, but I think Murray does enough to give Oakland just enough points to advance.

Prediction: Raiders 14, Texans 10

Saturday Night

(6) Detroit Lions @ (3) Seattle Seahawks

The Lions were in the driver's seat for the NFC North title this season, but dropped their last three games, all to playoff teams, and had to settle for the sixth seed in the NFC. Matthew Stafford had an excellent year without Calvin Johnson, mounting eight fourth quarter comebacks. He'll need to pull off a ninth if the Lions want to actually win a playoff game, as their run game is not good and their defense just got gashed by Aaron Rodgers. They're taking on a Seattle team that isn't quite as good as they've been in years past, especially on offense, but the Legion of Boom leads a defense that still finished as a top five unit in terms of both yards and points allowed, and did a pretty good job containing opposing passing attacks. While Russell Wilson doesn't have Marshawn Lynch to help take pressure off of his passing, the Seahawks can still mount a fearsome attack that can do some damage. Detroit will make a late rally, but it's not going to be enough.

Prediction: Seahawks 31, Lions 21

Sunday, Early Afternoon

(6) Miami Dolphins @ (3) Pittsburgh Steelers

Miami won nine of its last 11 games to grab the second Wild Card, and is another team that is down its starting quarterback, but that shouldn't be a problem. Matt Moore has played very well in three starts in relief of Ryan Tannehill, and Jay Ajayi is one of the better running backs in the NFL. Jarvis Landry provides a go-to target that the Steelers will have to key in on. But the Dolphins' run defense is absolutely porous (3rd worst in yards allowed, worst in yards per carry allowed), and with Le'Veon Bell at the Steelers' disposal, this one could get out of hand fairly quickly, especially if the play action to Antonio Brown is working as well. This could be a long day for the Dolphins.

Prediction: Steelers 31, Dolphins 17

Sunday, Late Afternoon

(5) New York Giants @ (4) Green Bay Packers

I'm not going to lie; I have 'Nam-like flashbacks going on with this matchup. Green Bay at home in its postseason history is 17-5, but two of those have been to the Giants in 2007 and 2011, and New York already won at Lambeau earlier this season. Eli Manning was his usual solid self, and we'll see a lot of Odell Beckham, Jr. lined up on the right side to abuse a Green Bay secondary that has been devastated by injury. The linchpin of this team though is their defense, which allowed the second fewest points in the league this year, despite their defensive front not being the same beast it has been in those prior Super Bowl years. The Giants have the misfortune, however, of taking on a Green Bay team that looked dead just six weeks ago when Aaron Rodgers made the (laughable at the time) "run the table" comment. Six weeks later, Green Bay is the hottest team in the league, Rodgers has 15 touchdown passes and no picks in that time frame, Jordy Nelson is starting to return to form, and the defense, while still vulnerable, has gotten some huge takeaways when they've needed to. This is clearly the game of the weekend, and while one that still scares the bejesus out of me, I think Rodgers is going to be too much to handle.

Prediction: Packers 34, Giants 31