Super Bowl 50 Predictions and Prop Bets

I dropped off a little bit for the NFL playoffs. I had meant to write something for Wild Card Weekend, and spaced it off by the time games started that Saturday. At that point, I didn't want to do write ups for the following rounds, but I definitely intended to do one for the Super Bowl. It is after all, for all intents and purposes, a national holiday.

That said, I can't just go and do this on my own. I need my NFL partner in crime back for this one. Adam Quinn, who was victorious in the 2015 COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em by a sizable margin, is back to pick the Super Bowl with me.

Of course, because it's such a big game, we're also getting back into the fun part from last year: the prop bets. I ended up winning based solely on nailing the Gatorade bath color, but Adam was pretty on the money with his other bets, so it was a pretty close contest.

We are going to do this the same way we did it last year. Each bet that we lay will be putting 100 points on the line, with a chance to win however many are available from betting those 100 points. We will each pick the game based on the Vegas line and go through a number of props ranging from Super Bowl MVP, touchdown and yard-related bets, and some of the fun novelty ones.

Before we get into those, however, here are my and Adam's picks for the Super Bowl.

2015 COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em Week 1

We've made it! The NFL season is here! After months of offseason moves, anticipation, unsubstantiated screams of "CHEATER!" and the tyrant Roger Goodell seeing his power trip blow up in his face, we can finally start watching games that matter.

The season kicks off tonight with the defending champs taking the field, and with it comes probably the most fun series of posts I've done since I started Confessions of a Sportscaster: the Pigskin Pick 'Em.

For the fourth straight year, I have assembled a nice group of people to pick games against the spread for the regular season. I could just post my picks on my own... but what fun would that be? For the second straight season, my friend Adam Quinn is joining me every week to post his picks on here.

Last year, Grabbing the Bull Horns blogger Geoffrey Clark beat both of us, and he is back this season to defend his crown. We'll see if he can do so. This season, my dad will also be joining us. He told me he may regret it, but that's another one we'll have to see on. However, most likely Adam and I will be the only ones actually posting our picks on here, though once games go active you can check the group to see what everyone picked, and I'll update standings as the season goes on.

On a separate note, I have also joined my colleagues at UKEndZone in a straight pick 'em competition. You can view our Week 1 picks here.

So, without further ado, here are Adam's and my picks for Week 1. We disagree on seven of the first 16 games, which is fine as long as this week doesn't go like Weeks 11-16 last year. And even if it does, I intend to follow the advice of my UKEndZone editor Ollie Connolly.

@northsider89 @UKEndZone life should always be lived as a hero Lucas. Always.

— Ollie Connolly (@OllieUKEZ) September 9, 2015

Super Bowl XLIX Predictions and Prop Bets

We're almost here! The day that should be a national holiday is upon us, and with it, the biggest game of the year.

Slowly but surely, I've gotten over the Epic Collapse of 2015 that resulted in this matchup in Arizona. It's a matchup a lot of people predicted coming into the year, and was made all the easier by the fact that these two teams were the top seeds in their respective conferences.

So who will win on Sunday: Seattle or New England? And what about the more fun part of Super Bowl Sunday: the prop bets?

Given the significance of the day, I've recruited some help. After giving me a run for my money in the COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em this season, Adam is back to do prop bets with me. We will have our picks for a variety of bets following our Super Bowl predictions. All bets are taken from a list provided by Bovada. Let's get to it!

NFL Conference Championship Preview

We're down to what a lot of people consider the best weekend of football in the entire season. Two games with the best four teams left, often teams that know each other really well, makes for great drama. The fact that we have four of the preseason favorites combined with great storylines in each game makes this weekend even better. On one side, a battle of up and coming teams with incredibly talented young dual-threat quarterbacks and relentless defenses. On the other side, a renewal of a rivalry between two of the best quarterbacks of all time. I am giddy.

Like last week and the week before, I'll predict a final score for each game in a vain hope of matching my once in a lifetime feat of nailing the final score exactly in Super Bowl XLVIII. This will serve as both a straight up pick and a pick against the spread. Spread information is pulled from Vegas Insider, but again, no money is being wagered. Let's get to it.

COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em Week 17

Here we are. Week 17. Several weeks of hard work and determination culminate in a lot of do or die games. Eight spots of the 12 are already determined for the playoffs, but a lot of seeds aren't established yet. One thing that is though is a second straight winning record.

Last week's decent performance was enough to push me over the mark to guarantee a .500 record this season. I'll take it. Even if I go 0-16 this week I'll still finish with 132 wins, but I'm aiming for loftier heights. And a playoff berth for my team, but that's another story.

So below, you can see my final batch of NFL picks against the spread for 2013.

COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em Week 16

We're coming down to two weeks left, and I feel pretty good about how I'm picking stuff. This week provided me with one of my best showings ever, since I only missed games that were total upsets. Such is what makes gambling on football... not the smartest proposition.

Fortunately for me, this isn't based on money. Though looking at records, I'd probably have made money were I gambling. Alas, I'm not that crazy, so I'm sticking to picking for pride at this point. I need just 6 correct picks over the next two weeks combined to finish over .500 for the season. I like those odds.

So without further ado, here are my Week 16 picks.

COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em: Week 15

We're coming down to the wire! Three weeks, 48 games remain. Only three playoff spots are locked up, and a lot of races are probably going down to the wire.

Last week was a pretty high week; I got 9 of the possible 16 games right, but Nathaniel caught fire, picking 12 right. I still hold a narrow lead at this stage.

Unfortunately, for the stretch run I decided to go separate. Just my picks will be featured here the next three weeks. You can view them coming up after the jump. Hopefully I can still do well enough on these without a foil.


Thursday Night
San Diego Chargers @ Denver Broncos (-10.5)
Lucas: Chargers. Obviously Peyton didn't like the "sucks in cold weather" narrative, and neither did Denver. I think San Diego is slightly more competent than Tennessee at this stage, though.

Sunday, Early Afternoon
Washington Redskins @ Atlanta Falcons (-6.5)
Lucas: Redskins. Even realizing that Washington is just awful, remember that of Atlanta's 21 points, all came in the first half, 7 came off kind of a fluky pick-6, and another 7 came off of a Green Bay turnover deep in their own territory. There weren't really any lengthy drives aside from the one that opened the game. And Green Bay's defense sucks. Points, please.

Buffalo Bills @ Jacksonville Jaguars (+1.5)
Lucas: Jaguars. Why do I feel like I'm all in on these guys. Maybe I should move down there and take advantage of the apparently super cheap tickets I was talking about with an old friend on Monday. Then again, I'm getting married in less than 200 days and I don't think my wife-to-be wants to move. Probably should hold off.

Chicago Bears @ Cleveland Browns (-1.5)
Lucas: Bears. How, exactly, is Cleveland favored here? I get that their defense is decent and it's Jason Campbell starting as opposed to Brandon Weeden, but have you seen the ridiculousness coming out of Alshon Jeffrey lately? Then again, if the Bears had a competent defense...

Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Colts (-6.5)
Lucas: Colts. We all remember what happened the last time Wade Phillips was in charge of a team, right?

New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins (+2.5)
Lucas: Dolphins. WHY GRONK NO GET TO GO PLAY IN MIAMI? GRONK WANT PARTY WITH PRETTY LADIES WHILE DOING KEGSTANDS. GRONK NO CARE IF GRONK'S KNEE TORN APART AND IN TREMENDOUS PAIN!

Philadelphia Eagles @ Minnesota Vikings (+4.5)
Lucas: Eagles. Obviously snow wasn't a problem for Chip Kelly, but put them in a dome? Have fun, Leslie.

Seattle Seahawks @ New York Giants (+6.5)
Lucas: Seahawks. I'm writing off the Giants now. Partially because it's the Seahawks, but mostly because I think, for real, the Giants are done now.

San Francisco 49ers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+5.5)
Lucas: 49ers. San Fran reestablished themselves with that big win over Seattle. Facing a weak team this week helps quite a bit.

Sunday, Late Afternoon
Kansas City Chiefs @ Oakland Raiders (+4.5)
Lucas: Chiefs. Because we have to delay giving Denver the AFC West as long as possible. Could KC finish 13-3 and be a wild card? It's doable, right?

New York Jets @ Carolina Panthers (-11.5)
Lucas: Jets. I'm sorry, but even with the disparity between these guys, I can't lay that many points. Cam Newton, please don't hurt me.

Green Bay Packers @ Dallas Cowboys (-6.5)
Lucas: Packers. Look, I'm aware it's stupid too with Rodgers likely not playing. But as bad as Dallas' defense is, is it that unreasonable to think Matt Flynn could pull out another one? Also, Dallas in December. Remember this.

Arizona Cardinals @ Tennessee Titans (+2.5)
Lucas: Cardinals. Tennessee gets a slightly weaker opponent, which helps, but I like how Arizona looks overall. Larry Fitzgerald is overjoyed that he has a competent quarterback again!

New Orleans Saints @ St. Louis Rams (+5.5)
Lucas: Saints. With the cold and winter weather that has abounded in the past week or two, Drew Brees put "playing every game indoors" on his Christmas list.

Sunday Night
Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers (+2.5)
Lucas: Bengals. Andy Dalton looks pretty good this year, doesn't he? Maybe the Bengals can actually avoid being one-and-done this time.

Monday Night
Baltimore Ravens @ Detroit Lions (-5.5)
Lucas: Ravens. Even though it's in Detroit, the Lions are the Lions. I can't shake the feeling that something is going to happen where Detroit screws themselves over. It's what they do.

Record So Far
111-101 (9-7 last week)

COAS/SSLYAR Pigskin Pick 'Em Week 14

Only four weeks remain in this NFL season, but there's still plenty of contention for playoff spots. It's still fairly competitive in picking games against the spread though too. Nathaniel and I each got back to at least .500 to keep numbers high, but I'm up to a 9 game lead with those 64 games left to be played. Such is what happens when despite the holiday, you go 11-5. Nathaniel didn't do too bad himself though, sitting at 8-8 on the week. Clearly, anything can happen.

Likewise in the NFL, a lot of playoff spots are still wide open. In the great tradition of December football, I use ESPN's Playoff Machine to mess up the NFL world as best I can. This was the best I could come up with: New England and Indianapolis miss the playoffs, Green Bay wins the NFC North, and the road to the Super Bowl runs through Philadelphia and... Miami?! Click here for the fun details.

Nathaniel has had a busy week, so he was only able to get quick synopses on all the games. This week, we disagree on 5 games out of the 16 on the slate. Let's see how this goes.

COAS/SSLYAR Pigskin Pick 'Em Week 12

We're onto the last of the set of bye weeks in this NFL slate, so after this week, it's full-on 16 game sets. For Nathaniel, that might be a key difference in overcoming his defecit. It grew last week, as we both finished under .500, but I took two of the three games we differed on to push my lead back up to six games.

Obviously, as has happened so far this year, anything can actually happen on any given Sunday. And usually, it's gone against common wisdom (or at least, my and/or Nathaniel's wisdom) and has dragged us down to near .500 overall. So really, neither of us is any better at this than you would be flipping a coin to pick games, except our rationales behind them are usually way better than "This is what flipping a coin got me."

This week we disagree on a whopping seven different games, so my lead could be gone by Sunday night. I imagine not, but we're probably looking at a shift of a few games.

So without further ado, let's move on to this week's set of picks.

COAS/SSLYAR Pigskin Pick 'Em Week 10

We're officially past the halfway point of the NFL season, or as former Bears coach Lovie Smith would say, "We're in the third quarter of our season... we like our team... Luke is our quarterback... we have a lot of football left to play." Did I mention I miss Lovie?

Anyway, Nathaniel and I are back at the NFL picks against the spread this week. There are 14 more games on this week's slate, and recently we've displayed a decent amount of groupthink. Of course, last week I won both the games we disagreed on to expand my lead a tad, but still. This week, we disagree on half of the matchups, so Nathaniel can narrow my lead quite a bit by the time Veterans Day rolls around. Even with that though, there's a fair amount of groupthink though, since our rationales on a lot of the games we agree on do overlap. Anyway, onto the picks.

COAS/SSLYAR Pigskin Pick 'Em Week 8

Momentum is a fickle thing.

After one week of picking games, Nathaniel actually held a slim lead over me before I bounced back. At this point we've slowed down from our early success and are seeing some lower scoring weeks. Maybe we're thinking wrong about teams after seven weeks, maybe parity actually rules. Probably a little of both.

I saw Nathaniel for the first time in a while last week and the first thing he told me was, "You're kicking my ass in [Pigskin Pick 'Em]." Which is somewhat true; I hold an 8 game lead. But there are 10 weeks left, and plenty of time for me to fall off the table.

In Week 8, we disagree on 5 of the 13 games on the slate. As I was entering these, it seemed like we agreed on more than 8 games, but all the disagreements got clustered together. Might have been part of it. So at least for this week, my lead is safe. But how safe? Let's find out.

COAS/SSLYAR Pigskin Pick 'Em Week 6

Five weeks of games have provided plenty of drama and excitement so far this NFL season. I've actually gotten to watch a decent amount so far with my office televising all Bears games on the wall of TV's. It's been awesome for them to do. I just don't know how much of Sunday's games I'll get to see as I fly out to California tonight.

And so far, collectively we've been pretty good at prognosticating results against the spread as part of this coalition. Last week we probably had the most picks in common, only disagreeing on two games, but I picked both correctly to widen my lead to 7. But any groupthink that prevailed last week is gone this week as we disagree on 8 games this time. Could be a tumultuous week. Let's get to it.

COAS/SSLYAR Pigskin Pick 'Em Week 4

Three weeks into the season, we're starting to know who a lot of the teams in the league are to this point. Also through three weeks, we have (maybe) an idea of how well we're all picking games. Through two weeks we were tied, but Nathaniel and I had a wider gap this time as I took a 4 game lead. Obviously as I learned last year, it's way too early to start thinking about what I'd write on SSLYAR this year if I win.

So we're back at picking games for Week 4 as the byes start to kick in (thankfully for some teams... I'm looking at mine), so there will be fewer games and thus fewer opportunities to rack up obscene numbers of points in a given week, though it's not too bad this week with 15 games on the docket. This time we disagree on only 5 games, so he can still climb back in it. Let's get started.

COAS/SSLYAR Pigskin Pick 'Em Week 2

Odd numbers occasionally cause some craziness, so when Nathaniel and I sat down to talk about how we were going to go about doing the posts for game picks, we agreed quickly that he would start this season, since I started last season's. I only hope that winning the contest isn't tied to who has more posts, but we'll see.

Week 1 was full of some dramatic games and started out pretty interesting but also historically (and I'm not talking about Peyton Manning). For the first time since we started this coalition, Nathaniel has the lead in picks! It's only one week in, but he's up by 1 game (the Skins-Eagles game was the difference). So as we get set to start Week 2 tonight, hopefully neither of us gets too caught up in overreacting to the first game. Of course, I make no promises about either of us. We disagree on only 7 of the games this time, so let's see if the standings can flip.

Super Bowl Predictions and Prop Bets

Disclaimer: These bets are being used for the purposes of competition on ESPN.com's Super Pick 'Em. No money is being wagered for the purposes of this competition. You know, the whole "gambling being illegal" thing.

I was looking for something to do in conjunction with my Super Bowl prediction this year, and happened to notice on ESPN's website that they are hosting a game to pick some of the fun prop bets they've picked out, and I figured why not. Those will be featured below (after the jump), but I do want to focus on the most important part of the weekend: the Super Bowl itself. The line for this week's game comes from footballlocks.com.

Baltimore Ravens vs San Francisco 49ers (-3.5)
With a neutral site game, you can fully get what Vegas expects out of a matchup between two teams, since home field generally gives you 3 points to play with. I think the line sounds about right in the grand scheme of things, even if you go by some books that have the line at 4.

I really like the intrigue this matchup brings, and it goes beyond the already kind of worn out "HarBowl" moniker that this game has been given. The Niners were an elite defensive team that could out-physical most teams but had a question mark at quarterback in Alex Smith, but that question was definitively answered when Smith suffered a concussion and Colin Kaepernick Tom Brady'd Smith and the Niners have turned into probably the most complete team coming into the playoffs. On paper, the Niners are the better team. But that's what makes sports fun: games aren't played on paper.

The Ravens looked going into January like they'd be a fairly early out since they struggled to close out the regular season and didn't seem to have the momentum that most recent Super Bowl champs have had. Then Ray Lewis announced his retirement effective at the end of the season, and it gave the Ravens a little something extra to play for, like #Chuckstrong did in Indy for much of the year. When you combine that and his rejuvenation for this final run with the kind of tear Joe Flacco is on, this team is dangerous. San Francisco has shown they can be thrown on when the game is competitive. Aaron Rodgers did it for a while in the divisional round, and Matt Ryan did it in the first half of the conference title game. Niners fans would be delusional to think the Ravens can't move the ball through the air.

That's what makes this matchup so interesting. When you combine all these factors, it seems like we're bound for another game decided on the final possession. When it comes down to the winner, I have to go with the better team, but that emotional factor will likely allow Baltimore to at least cover the spread here.

Prediction:49ers 24, Ravens 21

Record So Far
6-4 straight up (1-1 last round)
139-126-1 against the spread (1-0-1 last round, 5-4-1 playoffs)

COAS/SSLYAR Pigskin Pick 'Em Week 17

Hope you all had a Merry Christmas, dear readers! It was nice to get a little break from everything and spend time with my fiancee and her family as well as with my dad and my brother. And no, we didn't kill each other despite the differences in football teams illustrated to your left. We'll see how long that lasts depending on the Minnesota-Green Bay game on Sunday and how Logan's Bears do in the finale with Detroit.

But there are 14 other games besides those, and they all are important in the scheme of the Pigskin Pick 'Em that Nathaniel and I have undertaken this entire season, and it's been a fun ride. Even though I've led wire to wire, my lead has never been insurmountable and Nathaniel and I have both had our fair share of great jokes regarding these games and some excellent insight as well. It all comes down to this final week, as my lead holds at 3 games. We disagree on 11 games again this week though, so he has a shot for a final come-from-behind victory. He may have to do some of it from Missouri though, as he's on vacation and as a Christmas gift to me, got me his picks on Christmas Day. It was a good gift to get after I got him a Bear Claw. (No, really.)

Without further ado, let's get on with our final picks of the regular season.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons (-3.5)

Lucas: Falcons. Atlanta doesn't have anything to play for on Sunday, so we probably won't see much of Matt Ryan, but they're at home and it's still the regular season. Give them a tuneup game to get their fans feeling confident so they can get ousted by Washington in the Divisional round.

Falcons. Falcons. Ah, Week 17 when you've gotten everything clinched: to sit or play your starters? That is the question. I think Mike Smith plays his starters as long as the game is competitive - which, if it's like last year's Bucs-Falcons season-ending game, won't be very long.

New York Jets at Buffalo Bills (-3.5)

Lucas: Jets. Doesn't this seem like the kind of game where Rex is benefitted by Greg McElroy being able to light up a bad defense and thus somehow keep his job while Tim Tebow looks on dejectedly?

Nathaniel: Bills. Is it possible that Greg McElroy is worse than Mark Sanchez? In terms of unintentional comedy, the answer is of course "NO" but I don't think Marky Mark would've been sacked eleven times by a Chargers team playing out the string. He would've just turn the ball over two or three extra times instead. Man, I'm gonna miss the hilarity these two teams bring!

Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5)
Lucas: Bengals. Baltimore isn't the same team away from the Bay and Cincy is starting to get hot at the right time. I'm riding the hot hand on this one.

Nathaniel: Ravens. Baltimore still (theoretically) will have something to play for; Cincinnati will not. Thus...

Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions (+3.5)

Lucas: Bears. Fun matchup to think of: what happens this season if Jay gets sacked by Ndamukong Suh? I feel like there's a possibility he might die from blunt trauma after Suh kicks him in the kidney. But I also feel like the Bears can contain Megatron (something about Peanut Tillman and sausage casing).

Nathaniel: Lions. One last misguided Lions pick for the road! I'm fairly certain half of my incorrect picks this year have involved the Loins - wouldn't mind another, either.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans (-4.5)
Lucas: Jaguars. I really don't like this matchup. Tennessee got killed by Green Bay on Sunday (which was fun) and at the same time, Jacksonville's quarterback situation is worse than pretty much every team's except for Arizona. Even so, I'm taking the points.

Nathaniel: Titans. Whenever you get a chance to pick a 4.5 point favorite that lost by 48 points the previous week, you just have to do it.

Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts (+3.5)
Lucas: Colts. Houston is still playing for home field, but they've struggled lately, and Chuck Pagano is back this week. You know how this is going to turn out.

Nathaniel: Texans. Actually rooting for the Colts this week, though, because of A): Chuck Pagano (duh) and B): the potential hilarity of Houston leading the AFC virtually the entire season and then choking the last two weeks so badly that they don't even get a bye. THAT'S WHAT YOU GET FOR NOT TAKING CARE OF BUSINESS AGAINST THE VIKINGS, YOU STEAKHEADS.

Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (-4.5)

Lucas: Saints. New Orleans salvages a .500 season while Sean Payton orders a bounty on Roger Goodell, thus suspending him for another season. Was it really worth it, Sean?

Nathaniel: Panthers. Two teams with a real good shot at the playoffs next year - as long as they get better coaching out of Ron Rivera (Panthers) and the last janitor left in the building (Saints).

Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants (-7.5)

Lucas: Giants. This is a really high line, don't get me wrong. But Michael Vick is starting. Even with a struggling defensive line, the G-Men will probably still come up with 7 takeaways.

Nathaniel: Eagles. Godspeed, Andy. May you soon find another organization that values walrus mustaches, crazy reverse toss plays out of the shotgun inside the five-yard line, and using up both challenges in the first three minutes of the game. Your presence will be sorely missed.

Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers (-6.5)
Lucas: Steelers. And a Weeden shall lead them. Oh wait, he's hurt.

Nathaniel: Steelers. At the risk of seeming biased, I'd just like to say the following: HAHAHAHAHA THE STEELERS ARE MISSING THE PLAYOFFS HAHAHAHAHA TAKE THAT INTO YOUR BATHROOM ROETHLISBERGER HAHAHAHAHA FIRE OMAR EPPS HAHA

Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos (-15.5)
Lucas: Broncos. If anyone can beat this huge a spread, it's Peyton Manning against the worst team in the AFC. And with home field still up for grabs, I'm not betting against Peyton.

Nathaniel: Chiefs. I'm aware this directly contradicts my (correct) Broncos pick from last week in which I explained that if you can count on anyone to take care of business against a bad team, it's Peyton Manning. Why the change of heart this week? I'm wildly inconsistent.

Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings (+3.5)
Lucas: Packers. Green Bay's defense pretty much shut down Chris Johnson last week, but Adrian Peterson is in another class by himself. I wouldn't be surprised if he breaks Eric Dickerson's record on Sunday. At the same time though, Aaron Rodgers is indoors. Yes please.

Nathaniel: Vikings. Seems like the teams that control their own playoff destiny AND have a home game the final week of the season usually take care of business, if only because they're being buoyed by 68,000 raucous souls who desperately want their team to get shellacked by twenty-seven the next week in the Wild-Card Round. Also, Adrian Peterson.

Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots (-10.5)
Lucas: Dolphins. These past two weeks have given me no confidence in a double digit favored Patriot team. Of course, this means Brady will throw for 500 yards and 6 touchdowns in a dominating performance. Have fun Tom.

Nathaniel: Dolphins. The Patriots are either going to win by 35 or they're going to juuuuuusssssstttt skate by and after last week's debacle in Jacksonville, I'm a little gun-shy. Only out of anger, Darth Hoodie. ONLY OUT OF ANGER. (And sometimes warmth).

Lucas note: Nathaniel wins joke of the week. Maybe of the year.

Oakland Raiders at San Diego Chargers (-4.5)
Lucas: Chargers. I could see Matt Leinart/Terrelle Pryor throwing for 400 yards but for only 1 score and 3 picks in one final "empty yards" performance that may or may not save Norv Turner's job. *cue downtrodden Chargers fans shaking their heads sadly*

Nathaniel: Chargers. Sadly, Carson Palmer's quest to become the first quarterback to throw for 5,000 yards AND lose 12 games in a season has come to an end. You've got lofty shoes to fill, Matt Leinart/Terrelle Pryor.

Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers (-14.5)
Lucas: 49ers. I'm way too confident in huge lines, but with a first round bye still up for grabs, I think the Niners go all out against an Arizona team that I would still volunteer to take maybe one snap at quarterback for... on the condition that all my medical costs are billed to the team after Justin Smith destroys half the bones in my body.

Nathaniel: 49ers. If Ken Whisenhunt has any heart at all, he won't throw Ryan Lindley out there in this game. It's been devastating enough to watch him play against merely good and above-average defenses. WHAT CHANCE DOES HE HAVE AGAINST THE 49ERS DEFENSE????? Actually on second thought, Ken, leave him in, it'll be funny.

St. Louis Rams at Seattle Seahawks (-10.5)

Lucas: Seahawks. I still hate this team for the way they acted after the Week 3 debacle, but holy crap are they really good right now.

Nathaniel: Rams. No, I haven't noticed the giant fireball shooting out of Russell Wilson's keester the past month and a half, why do you ask?

Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins (-3.5)
Lucas: Redskins. Sorry, Tony. I'm sure you'll do everything in your power to win this game, but that RGIII fellow is just too much.

Nathaniel: Cowboys. But Washington ends up winning by one or two after Dan Bailey shanks a nineteen yard field goal with three seconds left. THIS IS YOUR SCHADENFREUDE MOMENT OF THE YEAR, AMERICA. SAVOR IT.

Records So Far

Lucas: 128-112 (8-8 last week)

Nathaniel: 125-115 (9-7 last week)

COAS/SSLYAR Pigskin Pick 'Em Week 15

You remember when I had a big lead on Nathaniel in our NFL picks series? Yeah, me neither. Well, kind of.

4 weeks into the NFL season, I had a 9 game lead. For the most part since then I've held anywhere between a 4 and 8 game lead. It's down to 2 now with Nathaniel picking games like he shoots jumpers on Wednesdays when we play Knockout and H-O-R-S-E. I'm fearing COAS might end up posting pro-Bears propaganda after the season to honor our wager. Thankfully I don't have to worry about other potential sabotage like a post lauding the merits of Brad Miller as a top-50 all time NBA player or something since our other competitor keeps forgetting to lock in his picks.

Now that I'm done freaking out (hopefully), here's our Week 15 picks. We disagree on another 8 game this week, so I could be looking up at Nathaniel like I was during football on Wednesday as he used his superior size and strength to outmuscle me for touchdowns.

Cincinnati Bengals at Philadelphia Eagles (+3.5)
Lucas: Bengals. Andy Reid gets one. And only one. If they win this week, they probably win out and Reid's job will be safe for whatever insane reason.
Nathaniel: Eagles. Here it comes. Here comes the season-ending four-game winning streak that makes the Eagles' 7-9 season suddenly seem respectable, Nick Foles look like the quarterback of the future, and Andy Reid the recipient of "one last chance, we swear!" Cue six million Eagles fans screaming "NOOOOO! NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!" at the top of their lungs.

New York Giants at Atlanta Falcons (-1.5)

Lucas: Falcons. There's waaaay too much voodoo magic involved here. I'm taking the team that seems to have the magic powers at home until the playoffs start. We aren't there yet...

Nathaniel: Giants. The Falcons are basically last year's Packers except that instead of being the proud employer of a quarterback having one of the greatest years ever, they instead employ an above-average quarterback. Scary #1 seed right here, guys!

Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears (+2.5)

Lucas: Packers. Green Bay might be getting healthy at the perfect time and the Bears just keep losing guys. And knowing how Jay seems to play against Green Bay, we could be looking at a 6 sack, 3 pick performance again.

Nathaniel: Bears. No pressure here, Lovie. It's not like your job rides on the outcome of this game or anything...



Washington Redskins at Cleveland Browns (-1.5)

Lucas: Redskins. Even if Kirk Cousins is filling in for RG3, I just don't think the Browns could keep up with these guys, despite their defense playing really well of late.

Nathaniel: Redskins. I realize this line was made under the assumption that RGIII doesn't play, but even then...huh? The NFL will still allow the Redskins to run the ball without RGIII, right? I don't know, maybe I'm drinking too much of the Kirk Cousins Kool-Aid...

Minnesota Vikings at St. Louis Rams (-2.5)
Lucas: Vikings. Adrian Peterson is running rampant over too many people right now to pick against him. You know, as long as Christian Ponder isn't being dumb with the football.
Nathaniel: Rams. Bill Musgrave: Well, Leslie, it might be tough to run against the Rams this week. They only give up four yards per carry and word on the street is Jeff Fisher's planning on putting eleven men and a midget the referees can't see in the box on Sunday.
Leslie Frazier (thinking): ...the hell with it. RUN ADRIAN SIXTY TIMES ANYWAY!
Jacksonville Jaguars at Miami Dolphins (-7.5)
Lucas: Jaguars. Both these teams are bad, and I think Miami wins because Jacksonville is worse, but I think 7.5 is a lot to be giving the Dolphins.
Nathaniel: Dolphins. The Chad Henne Reunion Bowl! America awaits with baited breath for this classic rematch of the 1999 AFC Divisional Playoffs, won by the Jaguars in a squeaker, 62-7. If you can find a more classic NFL matchup on the slate this weekend...congratulations. You have eyes.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints (-3.5)

Lucas: Saints. I've avoided the bounty talk for months not knowing what to make of it all, but if an arbitrator says there was enough evidence of an illegal program and that there was conduct detrimental to the league... then there was probably evidence detrimental to the league. I'm fine with the players not being suspended and fine with Sean Payton sitting this year out. They get a big win to satisfy the masses before being ensured a playoff absence.

Nathaniel: Buccaneers. Hold on, I think David Wilson is still running through the Saints' kick coverage units. Sometimes I think it would be fun to be a kick returner against such a porous return unit and try to picture what I would do under the same circumstances. Then, after watching my knee blow up after I get hit at the three-yard line, I return to my bag of Cheetos and belch loudly.
Lucas note: Come on buddy, you can use that strength you showed yesterday to get to at least the 5.


Denver Broncos at Baltimore Ravens (+2.5)

Lucas: Broncos. So the Ravens get rid of a pretty good offensive coordinator in Cam Cameron... and replace him with a robot? I mean, at least Grumpy Cat would have some emotion about getting promoted.

Nathaniel: Ravens. The best part of Cam Cameron getting fired? THE RETURN OF THE JIM CALDWELL REACTION SHOT! Here's a fun drinking game for all you designated drivers out there: every time Caldwell blinks, take a shot. Your sober and clear-headed driving on the ride home will thank you later!

Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans (-7.5)
Lucas: Colts. #Chuckstrong's powers are spreading beyond Indy. Houston got smoked by the Patriots on Monday and I think that will leave them reeling early in this game before they retake control. Or Indy amplifies its powers.
Nathaniel: Texans. I look forward to your latest installment of Bizarre Backdoor Cover Theater, Indianapolis.

Seattle Seahawks at Buffalo Bills (+5.5)

Lucas: Seahawks. I'm starting to worry this team is getting hot at the right time... even though odds are they'll fall apart at some point in the playoffs. Probably on the road.

Nathaniel: Seahawks. I would appreciate it if all the blabbermouthing talking heads would refrain from mentioning Seattle's poor road record this week since, you know...IT'S A ROAD GAME FOR BUFFALO, TOO!! This also would probably as good a time as any to mention that I have eaten inside the Rogers Centre in Toronto and highly recommend the view from inside the stadium when the lights are off. Really brings out the flavor in your barbequed pork sandwich, in my opinion.

Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals (+5.5)

Lucas: Lions. Even though I'm sure Jim Schwartz will do whatever he can to lose this game, Arizona is so bad they're holding tryouts for quarterback. I think this kid from San Diego I saw at work on Tuesday would be a good candidate. Larry Fitzgerald wouldn't waste your throw, brave San Diegan!

From the San Diego CHP. Click to enlarge.

Nathaniel: Lions. A partial list of people who would make better quarterbacks than anyone currently on the Cardinals roster:
-- Jim Abbott.
-- Bethany Hamilton.
-- Admiral Lord Nelson.
-- Aron Ralston.
-- The drummer from Def Leppard.
-- Nemo from the Disney/Pixar film Finding Nemo.

Any additions or suggestions are welcome. Please send to: 

Arizona Cardinals

P.O. Box 888

Phoenix, AZ 85001

Lucas note: I'll see if I can send that San Diego kid their way.
Carolina Panthers at San Diego Chargers (-2.5)
Lucas: Panthers. We've had a good run with you, Norv Turner. Hopefully a new crop of incompetent head coaches will arise to replace you, Andy Reid, Romeo Crennel, Jason Garrett, and possibly Lovie (which would kill me. I've had too much fun breaking everything down into quarters).
Nathaniel: Panthers. Although, if this Ron Rivera homecoming is anything like his earlier one in Chicago this year, Carolina will still find a way to clutch defeat from the jaws of victory. THEY JUST CAN'T KILL NORV.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Dallas Cowboys (+1.5)
Lucas: Steelers. I know they got killed by San Diego this past weekend, but they can't lose to 2 bad coaches in a row... right?
Nathaniel: Cowboys. In honor of such a classic NFL matchup, here's a GIF of Jerry Jones scratching his crotch. 

Kansas City Chiefs at Oakland Raiders (-2.5)

Lucas: Raiders. Somehow Roger Goodell survived the Black Hole last week. Kansas City won't be so lucky.

Nathaniel: Raiders. Kansas City, I really think you stumbled on something when you had Jamaal Charles run eighty yards for a touchdown on the first play of the game last week. Maybe you should try that play more often? By my count, you'd score somewhere in the neighborhood of 84-91 points and Jamaal Charles would get about 1,000 yards rushing, which I'm pretty sure would break the single game rushing record. Just think about it!

San Francisco 49ers at New England Patriots (-5.5)
Lucas: Patriots. New picking rule: Don't bet against Tom Brady at home.
Nathaniel: 49ers. According to this week's official Someone Still Loves You Alberto Riveron power rankings, these are the two best teams in their respective conferences. Which means...we're probably ending up with a Falcons-Colts Super Bowl.

New York Jets at Tennessee Titans (-1.5)

Lucas: Titans. Mark Sanchez was strangely competent last week and of course Greg McElroy was deactivated so Rex would have no choice but to go with him over Tebow. Sorry Simmons, Fourth and God II probably isn't happening.

Nathaniel: Titans. Mike Tirico's utter disdain for hyping this game last week was priceless. "SOMEHOW the Jets are still in playoff contention..." Don't worry about Jon, though. He'll be hyped up and ready to tell you why Mike DeVito is a Gruden Grinder!

Records so far

Lucas: 109-99 (8-8 last week)

Nathaniel: 107-101 (12-4 last week)

COAS/SSLYAR Pigskin Pick 'Em Week 13

We are coming down the stretch with 5 weeks left in the NFL season. It's been a fun, but also incredibly confusing year. Nathaniel and I have had our up and down weeks all season long but the standings have stayed almost the same, with me holding a decent but not separated enough lead currently standing at 7 games after he picked .500 ball over the holiday weekend and I was a game back while in the frozen tundra.

If you haven't yet, a fun resource to check out is ESPN's Playoff Machine, which lets you pick out winners over the remainder of the season and let the playoff scenarios unfold from there. It's good to see theoretically what a team needs to do to win, but it's also a fun toy to mess around with and see how crazy you can make the playoff picture. I can't sabotage too much this year, but I made a scenario as effed up as I possibly could here. Some teams are so up in the standings it's impossible to drop them out of the race, so I did what I could to put teams with no realistic shot into the 12 team fray. Nathaniel clearly had the same idea, and his scenarios are here, some of which might be a lot better than mine.

So without further ado, we return to reality and look at the slate of games this week. We only disagree on 5 games this week, so we must be in pretty good sync. That must explain why when we were playing football Wednesday afternoon we had 5 offensive drives that lasted a combined 8 plays (the first 4 were 1 play touchdown drives, the other took 4).

New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons (-3.5)

Lucas: Saints. One of these days I'll learn that the Falcons have otherworldly powers at home in the regular season. I'm going to play off of that and assume the Saints try to go up by 7 with a field goal with 2 minutes to go, only the field goal gets blocked and run back for a touchdown to put Atlanta up 3 and the Saints can't close.

Nathaniel: Saints. I'll admit it. I get a sick rush whenever I pick against the Falcons and they find some crazy way to cover by a half point each and every week. I love it when they get consistently outplayed but win anyway because they choke less than the other team. I WANT these picks to fail. C'mon, Matt Ryan. Don't let me down now!

Jacksonville Jaguars at Buffalo Bills (-6.5)

Lucas: Jaguars. So, we have 2 bad defenses... and one team is favored by a touchdown? And since Chad Henne is likely at the Jaguars' helm, why is Buffalo favored by that much? I don't get Vegas/ESPN. 

Nathaniel: Jaguars. If Chad Henne's proven anything in his five-year NFL career, it's that he's good enough to lift your team to six or seven wins a year. Progress in Jacksonville!

Seattle Seahawks at Chicago Bears (-4.5)

Lucas: Seahawks. Jay is back for the Bears, which helps, but it seems like half the rest of the team is wounded. Combine that with Seattle having two of its defensive backs while their PED appeals are heard and it sounds like the recipe for a cover, if not an upset.

Nathaniel: Seahawks. No, there's nothing wrong with facing a great pass rush a week after half of your offensive line died, why do you ask?

Indianapolis Colts at Detroit Lions (-4.5)

Lucas: Lions. For his next trick, Ndamukong Suh will punch an offensive lineman out of his way following the snap, then facemask Andrew Luck to the ground and stomp him in the stomach because of something Luck said on the previous play, earning the first ever lifetime ban from the NFL. That seems entirely reasonable, right? 

Nathaniel: Lions. The Lions don't have any cheerleaders with which to shave heads in support of leukemia awareness, so #Chuckstrong's powers should be immune here. On the other hand, Jim Schwartz's powers of not knowing what plays he can or can't challenge will still be on full display, so all things considered this might be a push.

Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (-9.5)

Lucas: Vikings. Maybe I'm being a little over-reactionary to the Packers getting embarrassed on national TV by the Giants again. Maybe Jared Allen just scares me given how Green Bay's offensive line has been. I just think this line is a little too high right now.

Nathaniel: Vikings. Another incident of a big line scaring me into taking the points. And, yes, I pick the Vikings knowing full well their best receiver right now might be Devin Aromashodu. Just like the 2009 Bears! Ah, that blissful season...

Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans (+5.5)

Lucas: Texans. "Hi, I'm Matt Schaub. Every year, thousands of men are kicked really hard in the balls. Not only is the pain immense, but it can do some serious damage to your body. The biggest problem is that it can happen to anybody. It happened to me. If you call the number on your screen now, you can help kicked balls in need. Your generous donation can provide relief and support to these men doubled over in pain. Don't let these balls suffer. Call now."

Nathaniel: Titans. Houston's defense has fallen off a cliff the past two weeks. I haven't seen Danieal Manning this flustered since he was blowing coverages in Super Bowl XL1. Ah, that blissful heartbreaking loss...

Carolina Panthers at Kansas City Chiefs (+3.5)

Lucas: Panthers. We got away with this one last week since Cam Newton decided to go off. Against a team as bad as Kansas City, maybe Cam will end up signing autographs in the parking lot too.

Nathaniel: Panthers. Carolina's hitting the cushiest part of their schedule JUUUUUUSSSSSSTTTT in time to avoid a top-5 draft pick and possibly save Ron Rivera's job. IF YOU'VE GOT ANY SENSE IN THAT BRAIN OF YOURS, CAM, YOU'LL COME DOWN WITH A "MYSTERIOUS" ILLNESS NOW AND SIT OUT THE REST OF THE SEASON. I promise that you'll enjoy having Jarvis Jones on your team.

San Francisco 49ers at St. Louis Rams (+7.5)

Lucas: Rams. I know, I know. Maybe it's too soon to predict another letdown game for the Niners. But if the Rams could tie them at Candlestick, what's to say they can't win at home? 

Nathaniel: Rams. You don't need to explain the merits of this fantastic 49ers squad to me, but didn't these teams just play to a tie in San Francisco three weeks ago? AND WHAT A MEMORABLE TIE THAT WAS. Hopefully NFL Network comes out at some point with a series on the best tie games of all time so that we can FINALLY properly relive these classic struggles. Who can forget the Eagles-Bengals tie from 2008 in which Donovan McNabb learned that, yes, you can in fact tie? Or Gus Frerotte's head-butt of the wall in the Giants-Redskins tie of 1997? THE PEOPLE DEMAND THE GREATEST TIES OF ALL TIME SERIES AND THEY DEMAND IT NOW.

New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins (+7.5)

Lucas: Patriots. This is the time of the year when Belichek and Brady go into high-flying mode. Granted, Ryan Tannehill in all likelihood won't butt-fumble, but we can always hope, right? 

Nathaniel: Dolphins. Fairly certain Ryan Tannehill can avoid fumbling the ball into his offensive lineman's buttocks. And as the Jets showed us last week, that's half the battle right there! Also, I like this pick better if the Dolphins leave the Sun Life Stadium sprinkler heads out when the Patriots have the ball.

Arizona Cardinals at New York Jets (-4.5)

Lucas: Cardinals. I was originally wondering why the Jets were favored in this game before realizing Arizona's quarterbacks kind of suck. But then again, Rex Ryan's general gave us this gem.

Nathaniel: Cardinals. Things are so bad for Gang Green that not even Fireman Ed can watch. What will the football world do without a childish, drunken middle-aged man standing on another childish, drunken middle-aged man's shoulders and teaching the rest of the crowd how to spell a four-letter word? R.I.P Fireman Ed. You will be missed.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Denver Broncos (-6.5)

Lucas: Buccaneers. Should be a fun battle of high-powered offenses. Nathaniel, can we blame Britton Colquitt for last week's late cover instead of Matt Prater?

Nathaniel: Broncos. But only if Matt Prater doesn't miss two field goals again. I reserve the right to change my pick if that happens!
Lucas Note: Good luck running that by the Disney corporation, since they run our picking service.

Cleveland Browns at Oakland Raiders (-0.5)

Lucas: Browns. Am I seriously starting to believe in Brandon Weeden? The constifusionscended guy?

Nathaniel: Raiders. Honestly just tossing blindly at a dartboard here. The real winner of this game will be America - minus the greater Cleveland and Bay Area metropolitan areas. They'll be treated to Steelers-Ravens, a game that might just look a little like a thing we call football.

Cincinnati Bengals at San Diego Chargers (+1.5)

Lucas: Bengals.I'm impressed Norv has lasted this long. Cincy seems like they're bound for at least a wild card spot. 

Nathaniel: Bengals. The battle of the Blackout Kings. Since Cincinnati fans don't even travel to Paul Brown Stadium to watch their team, there's zero chance they'll fly out to San Diego to do so. You might see a bigger crowd at your local house of worship Sunday than at Qualcomm Stadium.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (-6.5)

Lucas: Ravens. When you consider how bad the Steelers are without Big Ben, especially against Baltimore... combined with the fact that Baltimore is at home... come on. I don't recall feeling any ominous powers from driving by M&T Bank Stadium a couple times when I was in Baltimore, but you can't deny there's something there.

Nathaniel: Steelers. Under the assumption that Roethlisberger plays. But even if he doesn't, it won't be that bad, right? These games always seem to be 13-10 slugfests and I don't trust Joe Flacco to throw against the Steelers defense even when he's at home and Mike Tomlin's a very capable coach and OH MY WORD CHARLIE BATCH IS WARMING UP GAHHHHHHHHH KILL IT WITH FIRE.

Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys (-9.5)

Lucas: Eagles. I'm probably losing my mind at this point in time, but 9 1/2 points is a lot to be giving a team that has issues even if it's against a team that has bigger issues. Or maybe I'm fixated by the possibility of my postseason scenario above.

Nathaniel: Eagles. I should know better than to complain about point spreads this late in the season, but how in the world does a team with a losing record end up being favored by 9.5 over anybody other than the Chiefs? Not even Andy Reid can screw this up. Actually on second thought, forget that I said that.

New York Giants at Washington Redskins (+2.5)

Lucas: Redskins. Suddenly the Giants are looking pretty good after that drubbing they gave Green Bay (I was embarrassed). They seem like world beaters again going into Washington. I'm no expert on Giants football, but this is probably a letdown game again. Maybe I was a week early.

Nathaniel: Redskins. So...this RGIII fellow...

Records so far

Lucas: 92-84 (7-9 last week)

Nathaniel: 85-91 (8-8 last week)