2015 COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em: Week 15

Apparently, Adam doesn't understand the concept of a white flag.

I kid, of course, but he took three of our four disputed picks last week to further establish his dominance over me this season and take firm control of the group as a whole. He is up by 11 games over Geoffy and 13 over my dad, at least according to our ESPN standings.

Adam did go above and beyond early this week and sent me a spreadsheet with data from our picks so far this season. It's not perfect; he's off by a couple games on a couple of folks, but the principle of the data remains the same. I've put that spreadsheet on my Google Drive, and have it available here for your perusal. The big stat that jumps out to me: Adam has won 60 percent of his "hero" picks, which is second in the group behind Geoffy, but Adam has gone with the most hero picks out of all of us, hence his dominance.

Meanwhile in Week 15, Adam and I disagree on seven games. Let's get to it!


Thursday Night

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ St. Louis Rams (-0.5)
Lucas: Buccaneers. Sticking with the narrative that the Rams are bad and the Bucs are strangely good on the road. 

Adam: Buccaneers. While I think Gurley has a very good chance of breaking 100 yards again, that is about all the Rams will do on offense. Tampa comes out firing this week and beats an already beaten down Rams D.

Saturday Night

New York Jets @ Dallas Cowboys (+2.5)
Lucas: Jets. What are you trying to hide, Jerry? Your team sucks, you're an idiot, Greg Hardy is a thug who doesn't belong on an NFL roster, and Dez Bryant needs to quit his whining.

#Cowboys adopting absurd social media rules, governing what we can and cannot report on or show you through the week pic.twitter.com/2Z1XTZHjOL

— Mike Leslie (@MikeLeslieWFAA) December 15, 2015

Lucas note: Also, how dare the NFL go up against the Death to the BCS Playoffs! Check back Sunday for first round results.

Adam: Jets. It is never a good sign when your team is a home dog. Really the question becomes can Dallas keep it somewhat close. And no, I am not going to say Ivory for 150 and 2 TDs (and of course he will probably do that his week).  I will go more realistic, 90 yards and 1 score.

Sunday, Early Afternoon

Atlanta Falcons @ Jacksonville Jaguars (-3.5)
Lucas: Jaguars. Man, if Jacksonville did that kind of damage with some injury concerns against Indy, I can't wait to see how bad they blow out a Falcons team that can't rush the passer to save their lives.

Adam: Jaguars. Not sure I would ever have thought I would ever say these words, but I am kind of liking the way the Jags are playing. They are putting together a nice season and a pretty sweet line-up featuring Bortles, Robinson, Hurns and Yeldon. 

Lucas note:

Buffalo Bills @ Washington Redskins (+0.5)
Lucas: Redskins. I doubt Buffalo commits that many penalties again, but I really shouldn't count that possibility out with Rex Ryan patrolling the sidelines.

Adam: Bills. I know the Skins beat my Bears but really, how is a team with Kirk Cousins winning…?

Lucas note:
 
Chicago Bears @ Minnesota Vikings (-5.5)
Lucas: Vikings. I don't get the Bears. The rebuild is going all right so far, but how do you go from beating the Packers at Lambeau to a pair of clunkers at home against teams that aren't very good? I feel bad for Robbie Gould. Given the last two weeks... Godspeed, sir.

Adam: Bears. Per my previous comments, I should probably take the Vikes, but the Bears also suck at home and are decent on the road.  I think they find a way to make this game interesting.  Maybe they get the ball to Forte and pound him into the ground for the next team to take him.

Tennessee Titans @ New England Patriots (-14.5)
Lucas: Patriots. Tempted to take the points because two touchdowns is a lot, but the Patriots are fighting for the number one seed and they're at home in December. I don't think the Titans have earned this level of trust yet.

Adam: Titans. Really ESPN, 14 points…where the hell did this line come from? The Titans have a solid secondary and can surprise at times. Brady has like 1.5 receivers… I bet this is somehow because of his Trump endorsement.

Lucas note: Just throwing this out there, but the Titans are eighth-worst in the NFL in net yards per pass attempt allowed. They're also ranked 21st in pass defense DVOA by Football Outsiders. Point about the receivers is valid, but I don't know that I'd call that secondary "solid".
 
Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Colts (-1.5)
Lucas: Texans. Houston isn't playing the Patriots, so they can actually use their best guys again. Also, J.J. Watt has probably made his case as my favorite non-Packer player. I know he wasn't effective against New England, and some of that is scheme, but dude is playing with a broken hand. I'd probably take a couple days off of work for the same injury, at minimum.

Adam: Texans. Houston will come ready to play this divisional match up, especially since the winner will have outright first place in the division.

Lucas note: Originally Adam's pick included a note about Andrew Luck potentially playing, but he's been ruled out, so I got rid of that section. Even so, agree with the sentiment.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Baltimore Ravens (+7.5)
Lucas: Chiefs. I thought about taking the points, but you're looking at either Schaub, Jimmy Clausen or Ryan Freaking Mallett as Baltimore's quarterback. No thanks.

Adam: Ravens. Another home dog, but this one is much more significant than the prior one. I am going to take the points even with the Ravens depending on either a terrible Jimmy Clausen or an only a little better and hurt Matt Schaub.

Carolina Panthers @ New York Giants (+5.5)
Lucas: Giants. If the Panthers are going to lose a game this regular season... this would probably be it. I think they win, but the injuries they've suffered leave it in enough doubt that I'm going to take the points.

Adam: Panthers. There is no stopping this team. Should be a fun game if OBJ and Manning can hook up a few times, but Cam and crew are just too good for the Giants… and pretty much everyone else.

Sunday, Late Afternoon

Cleveland Browns @ Seattle Seahawks (-14.5)
Lucas: Seahawks. This is another one that is tempting to take the points on principle, but with the way Seattle is rolling right now combined with the fact that Cleveland is awful, do you really feel that good about taking them, even spotting them two touchdowns? 

Adam: Browns. I am taking the points here again. I know it is on home field for the Seahawks but Johnny Football seems to have found a new way to learn the plays.

Lucas note: Adam sent a still image of Manziel with the tablet to go with his pick. I switched it to a GIF because it's funnier. Don't mind the editorial judgement, sir.

 
Green Bay Packers @ Oakland Raiders (+3.5)
Lucas: Packers. Sorry, Charles Woodson, I appreciate all you did in Green Bay and everything, but may I present one Eddie Lacy.

Adam: Raiders. Seems that home dogs are a trend here. It’s been a few games since we have seen a crazy good game from the Carr/Cooper/Crabtree connections. Maybe this is the week.

Cincinnati Bengals @ San Francisco 49ers (+4.5)
Lucas: 49ers. To put things in perspective: the last time a quarterback from the University of Alabama won an NFL game, my parents were newlyweds. #FailTide

Adam: 49ers. See prior notes about home dogs. With Dalton hurting and AJ McCarron taking over starting duties, this team will truly see what it is made of. Cincy suffered a loss to Pit last week as a result. While I see Cincy playing better, San Francisco keeps it close and even interesting late…

Denver Broncos @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-6.5)
Lucas: Steelers. This is arguably a game for their playoff lives, which is crazy when you consider how scary good Pittsburgh is right now. Brock Osweiler is starting to look a little more mortal, and no one can stop this Steeler offense. Laying the points.

Adam: Steelers. Chances we will see Peyton Manning back in the starting role… well I for one am happy he is not starting. Seems Papa Johns only shows his commercials while he is playing. I feel like it has been months since I have seen one of those awkward commercials…

Lucas note: Chicken parm you taste so good...

Miami Dolphins @ San Diego Chargers (-1.5)
Lucas: Dolphins. The Chargers are 1-6 at home against the spread. Taking the upset.

Adam: Dolphins. No words… just Miami.

Sunday Night

Arizona Cardinals @ Philadelphia Eagles (+3.5)
Lucas: Cardinals. A two game winning streak, including beating the Patriots, comes to an end here. Arizona is too good.

Adam: Cardinals. Another home… you get it, but this time I am going the other way. The Eagles have been playing well as of late, but running into Arizona should stop them cold. I think we will get another showing of what rookie running back Johnson can do.

Monday Night

Detroit Lions @ New Orleans Saints (-2.5)
Lucas: Saints. If you can't beat the freaking Rams, I'm not picking you. I'll go easy on Jim Caldwell this week, though.

Adam: Saints. Ouch, Monday night, what kind of crap have you been feeding us lately? I don’t think there have been more than 2 or 3 Monday’s where I have actually wanted to watch the game, this being another example. I don’t see how Detroit gets any traction in this game.  

Records So Far
Lucas: 92-116 (9-7 last week)
Adam: 108-100 (11-5 last week)
Geoffrey: 97-111 (10-6 last week)
Scott: 95-113 (7-9 last week)