Thursday, October 24, 2024

2024 COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em: Week 8

For the first time all season, the entire coalition is over .500, and against that backdrop, back into the fray we go.

It was a good week for most of the group, and for me in particular. I took Game 7 from both Joe and Adam for a narrow edge last week, while the two of them split their eight disputed games. My tie for the week high has me back within six of the lead, and I'm only two games out of second place. Adam retains a four game advantage on Jim through seven weeks.

You can view how we've all picked in relation to each other here. We've come back to earth a bit on hero games, collectively going 12-15 so far. I have the most wins in games involving a hero pick (including 2-0 in games where I've gone hero), but my struggles elsewhere explain my current deficit. Adam, meanwhile, has dominated games with a 5-2 split among the group, going 20-7 in those games. Joe has a strong showing in hero games (including a 2-1 mark where he's been the lone wolf), but a 4-11 mark in Superminority games has hurt him.

Looking ahead to this week, Adam and I disagree on five games, Joe and I on four, and the two of them on seven games out of 16. Let's get to it!

Thursday Night

Minnesota Vikings @ Los Angeles Rams (+2.5)
Lucas: Vikings. Even if Cooper Kupp is back, I don't know that the Rams will have enough here.
Adam: Vikings. So I was hearing on the radio that there was some interest in trading Kupp. But they also said there was some interest in trading Stafford too, and they suggested Minnesota was the target and the trade: Stafford and Darnold. At first it seems weird but then think about it. Stafford to help J.J. ease in next year, and the Rams get a long term solution...
Lucas note: I don't like it. Stafford may improve things a bit, but Darnold has played pretty well so far, and why would you wreck the chemistry of a good team?
Joe: Vikings.

Sunday, Early Afternoon

Baltimore Ravens @ Cleveland Browns (+9.5)
Lucas: Ravens. We haven't had a lot of double digit lines yet this year, but now that we're into the middle of the season it makes sense that we're starting to see more. I'm leery about laying double digits, especially on a road team in-division, but then again...

Adam: Ravens. Easy: Derrick Effing Henry.
Joe: Ravens.

Tennessee Titans @ Detroit Lions (-11.5)
Lucas: Titans. Early on, and then for a split second late (although not enough by spread), my Detroit rationale was spot on. I think Dan Campbell will have this team ready to go and they'll win comfortably, but I'm just not thrilled laying 12.
Adam: Lions. I hate laying the 10+, but this is a juggernaut versus a peewee team...
Joe: Lions.

Arizona Cardinals @ Miami Dolphins (-3.5)
Lucas: Cardinals. I mean, I'd have gone this way even without the solidarity pick rationale. But remember last week how I said sorry in advance to North Park? They came into Benedetti-Wehrli Stadium as a top five passing offense in all of Division III, and the Cardinals didn't even let them cross midfield the entire game. And then, while I get it that there's 240 teams in D-III, no Cardinal made the D3Football.com Team of the Week. I shouldn't let the meatball in me come out, but I can't help myself.

Adam: Dolphins. For Tua, maybe if they start winning, he won’t “need” to return and put his already serious tenuous health into more jeopardy.
Lucas note: Okay, can we also talk about how he doesn't want to wear the Guardian cap? I know it's his call, but it's a poor one.
Joe: Cardinals.

New York Jets @ New England Patriots (+7.5)
Lucas: Patriots. Blasphemous take possibly, but... maybe Aaron is the problem. Or at least, part of the problem.
Adam: Patriots. Hey A A ron, how them schnozz berries taste? Like schnozz berries? Lol.

Joe: Jets.

Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5)
Lucas: Falcons. I took Tampa initially, then I remembered that Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are out. Should've made better cookies, Baker!

Adam: Falcons. Who does Mayfield have to throw to anymore? Evans is out through at least their bye in week 11, and Godwin for the season.
Joe: Falcons.

Green Bay Packers @ Jacksonville Jaguars (+4.5)
Lucas: Packers.

Adam: Packers. Seems like the only obvious choice here. Not much else to say here.
Joe: Packers.

Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans (-5.5)
Lucas: Colts. I'm going back and forth a bit between "Shane Steichen should be fired for benching Joe Flacco," and "I get it, you need to make sure you're developing Anthony Richardson." Yet if the Colts are trying to win now, I think Flacco gives you the better bet. Either way, given how tight the first matchup between these two was, combined with the Packers giving teams a blueprint on how to contain the Strouds, I'll take the points. Also, Stefon Diggs is a cancer who's owned by Jaire Alexander.

Adam: Texans. I think Richardson will be back, so that should help Indy, but this game shouldn’t be close from the start. Maybe Taylor will make it close, but I still like Texans by a touchdown.
Joe: Colts.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5)
Lucas: Bengals. Cincy's righted the ship after a rough start, and the degree of difficulty steps up a couple notches this week for Philly.
Adam: Bengals. This seems to be a pretty close matchup. I like the Bengals in this one. They have found their stride the past few weeks, so I’ll lay the 2.5.
Joe: Eagles.

Sunday, Late Afternoon

New Orleans Saints @ Los Angeles Chargers (-7.5)
Lucas: Saints. Honestly kinda surprised Dennis Allen still has a job. This will probably be a one score game, hence the points pick.
Adam: Saints. Carr is making progress at the time of writing, so I am banking he will play in which case, this line is way to high, but if he cannot go, Spencer Rattler would make his 3rd start. It gets iffy if Rattler plays, but I’ll take the saints hoping Carr plays, or at very least Rattler takes some steps forward.
Joe: Saints.

Buffalo Bills @ Seattle Seahawks (+2.5)
Lucas: Bills. Go figure, I turn on the Seahawks and they dominate. Buffalo's a much better team than Atlanta though.
Adam: Bills. Hey Lucas, are there any stats for East coast teams traveling west like there are for West coast teams going east? I bet is about the same since they are both traveling to road games. In any case, did you hear Cooper scored a TD when he didn’t even know the play? Lol.
Lucas note: So I think the West coast teams going east thing is more of an early start thing than a travel thing in and of itself. And the numbers kind of bear this out: teams from further east playing in the late afternoon window at a West Coast team are 7-4 against the ESPN spread this season. I think the opposite way in the early window is still a sub-.500 record.
Joe: Bills.

Chicago Bears @ Washington Commanders (+2.5)
Lucas: Bears. Go figure; the NFL flexes this game to the late window and Jayden Daniels gets hurt. That's part of the reason behind my Bears pick. I reserve the right to change this if Daniels is good to go.
Adam: Bears. Fun fact, not necessarily related to my pick, but interesting nonetheless. Apparently there a “Commanders Rule” for the last home game they play prior to a presidential election. If the Commanders win, the incumbent party wins, but if their opponent wins then the challenger party wins. It has been “right” 10 of the last 12 or something like that... but it also reminds me of one of the most important math facts I know: correlation does not mean causation.
Lucas note: I linked to the Wikipedia article above for the rule, but interestingly enough since the turn of the century the rule has largely inverted. And yes, correlation does not equal causation. Unless it's the Lions playing on Thanksgiving where the moon is waxing gibbous. All hail the moon!
Joe: Bears.

Carolina Panthers @ Denver Broncos (-7.5)
Lucas: Panthers. Taking the points here too, which inevitably means Denver's defense is going to get like three defensive touchdowns in a rout.
Adam: Panthers. Ehhhhhhh, 7.5 is a touch too high... maybe a mile high. Sorry, bad joke. Since ditching Young the Panthers have looked better. Not better like they are going to walk into Denver and win, but better as in keeps it close.
Joe: Broncos.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Las Vegas Raiders (+9.5)
Lucas: Chiefs. I was 120 pounds soaking wet as a freshman in high school when Oz Price, then the head coach at Aurora Christian, called my house before the start of the school year to try to get me to play football. Needless to say, my mom said no. And while my Manifest Destiny would have been as a goal line receiving threat, Price, and eventually Don Beebe, would probably have wanted me to play two ways, probably meaning linebacker on defense due to my height and lack of speed. What Patrick Mahomes did to Malik Mustapha on Sunday would probably have happened to me multiple times a game.

Adam: Chiefs. D Hop WR1 in KC now. That is such a weird sentence to look at. But hey, now that Mahomes has someone to throw to this could take the close games they have been playing this year and turn them into blowouts.
Joe: Chiefs.

Sunday Night

Dallas Cowboys @ San Francisco 49ers (-5.5)
Lucas: Cowboys. It's not quite Andy Reid, but Mike McCarthy is 12-5 all time coming off a bye, including 3-1 with the Cowboys. Also, the Niners in the past half decade are one of two things: either a juggernaut that runs into a brick wall called the Kansas City Chiefs, or injured to hell. There is no in between.
Adam: 49ers. So, this week in the Jerra soap opera on The Fan, Jerra came on and ‘basically’ apologized without actually saying I am sorry. But the basis of his tirade last week was being asked about why they had not signed Henry, to which he effectively said that he didn’t think Henry would be having the type of season he is having if he were in Dallas. So Jerra what you are saying is you suck... got it.
Joe: Cowboys.

Monday Night

New York Giants @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-6.5)
Lucas: Steelers. Still not sure why Tomlin went with Russell Wilson this past week, but it worked. A winning record is inevitable.
Adam: Giants. This is a pure gut pick. With Russ “Lets Weld” Wilson the offense looked better. But it’s a Monday Night, so the script writers ‘want’ a close game and with the NY viewership, yeah this game is close for no real reason. Maybe the zebras help.
Lucas note: Flag?
Joe: Steelers.

Records So Far
Lucas: 57-50 (10-5 last week)
Adam: 63-44 (9-6 last week)
Joe: 54-53 (9-6 last week)
Geoffrey: 58-49 (8-7 last week)
Jim: 59-48 (10-5 last week)
John: 55-52 (9-6 last week)
Matthew: 55-52 (5-10 last week)

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