I pegged the top of the division right last year, if only because it seemed to be a given. St. Louis was the division winner last year, but Pittsburgh outperformed expectations and finally became that feel-good story, making the playoffs for the first time in 21 years. Maybe there will be a changing of the guard? We'll have to see this summer. For now, here's how I think the division shakes out.
2013: 97-65 (1st in NL Central), Lost in World Series; 4 wins above COAS Prediction.
Once again, the strength of the Cardinals is that rotation. Michael Wacha broke onto the scene in last year's playoffs, and he's expected join Adam Wainwright in a heck of a 1-2 punch. You add Lance Lynn as a third starter, and look out. Meanwhile in the field, they've lost a couple pieces and moved things around, but they can afford to do so because they are great at developing talent and replacing lost pieces. There are great youth pieces in Matt Adams, Matt Carpenter, and Allen Craig to back up the veteran talent in guys like Matt Holliday and Yadier Molina. They just keep reloading and making runs. Let's move on before I start to rage.
2014 Prediction: 94-68
2013: 94-68 (2nd in NL Central), Lost in NLDS; 13 wins above COAS Prediction.
They finally did it! Behind an MVP year from Andrew McCutchen, the Pirates not only had a winning season, but they made the playoffs and gave St. Louis a run for their money. They didn't add a lot, preferring to roll over a now experienced squad into 2014. Their rotation is pretty good overall, but I'm not sold on Francisco Liriano as a #1 guy. Given that, I think I'd take the Pirates as the second best team in the division, if for no other reason than the Cardinals' rotation. Even so, the Pirates will be in the race for the division until the end.
2014 Prediction: 92-70, Wild Card
2013: 90-72 (3rd in NL Central), Lost in NL Wild Card Game; 2 wins below COAS Prediction.
In some ways, the Reds are in a bit of a decline. Their pitching took a bit of a hit, but when you have a 1-2-3 of Johnny Cueto, Mat Latos and Homer Bailey, you're still in good shape. On the field, Brandon Phillips is almost starting to become a distraction, which might hurt things a little bit. There's still plenty of talent though in Joey Votto and Jay Bruce in the heart of the lineup. The interesting addition for me though is the first full year of Billy Hamilton in center field. If he can get on base at a good clip, the man might steal 100 bases this year. Don't rule it out.
2014 Prediction: 85-77
2013: 74-88 (4th in NL Central), Missed playoffs; 4 wins below COAS Prediction.
This could be a bit of a long year up in Wisconsin. Milwaukee has pitching, as Yovani Gallardo is still there, but they added Matt Garza who, when healthy, is pretty good in his own right. Offensively, this team continues to stumble a little bit. If he's healthy when the season starts, Jean Segura will be a good presence at the top of the order, and Carlos Gomez is almost a sure bet for at least a 20-20 season. This team will have a lot of trouble on the road this year though. With Ryan Braun having served his suspension in the Biogenesis scandal, he's free to play again, but he is going to get booed relentlessly anywhere outside of Milwaukee. And maybe even in Milwaukee when the Cubs or Twins come to town. He'll probably still put up good numbers, but those questions might dog him and hurt the team a little bit.
2014 Prediction: 72-90
2013: 66-96 (5th in NL Central), missed playoffs; 1 win above COAS Prediction.
Well, considering I overshot the entire league by about a win per team, I'd consider my Cubs pick on the money last year. It's Year Three of the Epstein/Hoyer rebuild, and the Cubs might start the year without shortstop Starlin Castro. He did not have a good 2013, so hopefully a new coaching staff will help turn things around for him and Anthony Rizzo, who also had a down year. The rotation still needs more pieces as well, since Opening Day starter Jeff Samardzija is a decent pitcher, but not ace material. They're getting closer to contention, but 2014 will probably be a long year again.
2014 Prediction: 68-94
We're halfway home! Tomorrow I'll switch leagues again and check out the AL Central.
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