I'm onto the last geographical area of the league and the second to last division in the series of previews. Today I tackle the NL East, in a division where I kind of whiffed last year on the winner, but had kind of the right idea at least. There's a definite separation though between the class of the division and the also-rans. So without further ado, let's make that distinction.
2013: 86-76 (2nd in NL East), Missed playoffs; 13 wins below COAS Prediction.
My predicted winner of last year gets another first place vote this year. They largely stood pat on offense, but it's a pretty good collection of talent here with Denard Span at the top and a good middle with Bryce Harper and Ryan Zimmerman. They added Doug Fister to help bolster the rotation which is one of the best in the division with Stephen Strasburg and Gio Gonzalez at the top. After last year's down year, the Nationals are in a good position to rebound.
2014 Prediction: 93-69
2013: 96-66 (1st in NL East), Lost in NLDS; 1 win below COAS Prediction.
It's amazing that I was pretty much right on in terms of a win projection, but I'd figured the Nationals would be better last year. This year, I figure Atlanta will be right in the hunt again, but it would require better years from Justin and BJ Upton. The big reason I have them falling is because of the injuries to their rotation, including missing a couple guys for the year. Julio Teheran will have to pick up the slack if the Braves want to win the division again.
2014 Prediction: 90-72, Wild Card
2013: 74-88 (3rd in NL East), Missed playoffs; 1 win below COAS Prediction.
Management of the Mets seems to think they can win 90 games this year. Looking at this roster... I don't think so. Adding Curtis Granderson helps, but beyond him, David Wright and Ike Davis, I think they're a little short on firepower. I'm not really sold on arms either. Jonathan Niese is good, but after him there isn't much, unless Bartolo Colon found the Fountain of Youth and Daisuke Matsuzaka suddenly returns to his Japan form. They'll be decent, but not to 90-win level.
2014 Prediction: 82-80
2013: 73-89 (4th in NL East), Missed playoffs; 4 wins below COAS Prediction.
The Phillies have basically stuck with a model whose window closed like three years ago. Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels were a great 1-2 punch in 2008 or so, but don't strike the same level of fear now. Domonic Brown is a good young outfielder, but Chase Utley and Ryan Howard aren't getting any younger. This team isn't really on track to go anywhere this year either, so maybe we'll see some trades soon, who knows?
2014 Prediction: 72-90
2013: 62-100 (5th in NL East), Missed playoffs; 3 wins above COAS Prediction.
Ah, the Marlins... a team that should either be contracted or have new MLB leadership step in and force Jeff Loria to sell because he only cares about getting money. Of course, the latter will never happen, and because of revenue sharing there's no way he'll stop getting free money. Thus, he can get away with fielding a Major League team whose only major serviceable players are Giancarlo Stanton and Jose Fernandez, and also the team that employs Carlos Marmol. Sorry, I'm getting down from my soapbox now. The Marlins are going to be bad. Let's just enjoy it.
2014 Prediction: 60-102
Tomorrow is Opening Night. It's also the day I'll finish out my baseball previews. Check back tomorrow to see how I project the defending champs and the rest of the AL East!
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