In another total shocker, I goofed on last year's predictions out in the AL East, focusing too much on big splashes. There weren't too many big ones this year though, so hopefully I'll be closer to right this time. Also, you best respect the champ. Let's go.
2013: 97-65 (1st in AL East), Won World Series; 23 wins above COAS Prediction.
This was my biggest goof. John Farrell turned the team around quicker than expected, and gave the city of Boston something to rally around. They didn't make too many major moves this offseason, but that rotation remains fantastic with Jon Lester and John Lackey lurking at the top. The bullpen is excellent, and there's just so much talent throughout their lineup. He won't hit like he did in the World Series, but David Ortiz is still a monster. This team will be back in the running to hoist the trophy again come October.
2014 Prediction: 96-66
2013: 92-71 (2nd in AL East), Lost in ALDS; at COAS Prediction*.
The asterisk is there because the Rays went 91-71 and needed that play-in game against the Rangers to make the postseason. Even so, they're reloaded and back to challenge Boston for the division. David Price leads a reloaded rotation, and there's a good blend of talent young and old, as Wil Myers will start the year in the bigs surrounded by plenty of veteran talent. Expect to see these guys back in the playoffs.
2014 Prediction: 89-73, Wild Card
2013: 74-88 (5th in AL East), Missed Playoffs; 21 wins below COAS Prediction.
With a year to really process it, I'm not as blown away by this Jays team, but they are still a pretty talented group. Their offense is respectable with Jose Reyes leading off and powerful hitters like Jose Bautista, the lone Major Leaguer to follow me on Twitter (though he's following close to 200,000 MLB fans, I respect that he's reaching out). The rotation doesn't scare me really, with R.A. Dickey coming back down to earth last year. They'll be a decent team, but not really a playoff threat.
2014 Prediction: 82-80
2013: 85-77 (T-3rd in AL East), Missed playoffs; 5 wins below COAS Prediction.
I don't really know why, but I'm predicting a dropoff for Baltimore this year. Sure, they still have a lot of talent in the field with guys like Adam Jones and Chris Davis, but I just have more faith in a lot of the rest of the division this year. Maybe it's because their rotation doesn't scare me, other than maybe Ubaldo Jiminez. If there were any prediction I'm most worried about being wrong, this one is probably it.
2014 Predictions: 71-91
2013: 85-77 (T-3rd in AL East), Missed playoffs; 1 win above COAS Prediction.
The Yankees landed one of the biggest prizes of the offseason in Masahiro Tanaka from Japan, and then Brian Cashman proceeded to call him a "number three or four starter". He won't put up the eye-popping numbers in America that he did in Japan, but I think he'll have a good edge for a decent chunk of the season. The team is giving Derek Jeter a farewell tour this year as well, but it will only do so much to take away from the cloud of Alex Rodriguez' yearlong suspension. The immortal Kelly Johnson is expected to man the hot corner in his place, so I'm sure the production level will be similar to what it was last year sans A-Rod.
2014 Prediction: 70-92
So hopefully if I did my math right, all the win totals should add up to what they're supposed to. Good luck to your respective teams this coming season. Play Ball!
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