So like I did last year, I'm going to do a runthrough of all 30 MLB teams even though I've only kind of followed what's gone on during the offseason. I think I can do enough to at least reasonably guess at what will happen. Bear in mind though, this is a guy who picked the world champs to finish last in their division last year. I was wrong then, so take these picks for what you will.
Another fun side note: I totally threw out random records last season for my projections, and my dad put the numbers together only to find that I gave, on average, about a win too many to all the teams last year. I'm actually looking at numbers this time.
Since I want to do the division with the defending champ last, I'm starting in the opposite league on the opposite coast. As such, here's how I'm picking the NL West to shape up.
2013: 92-70 (1st in NL West), Lost in NLCS; 2 wins above COAS Prediction.
I spent Columbus Day Weekend (or most of it) in Orange County, California last year, and wore a Cubs hat around for a decent chunk of time. I got some questions about it, but my rationale was because the NLCS was going on at the time, and I wanted to show solidarity with Dodger fans because I hate the Cardinals. Sadly my solidarity wasn't enough though. Anyway, this team remains built to contend in 2014. Matt Kemp is hurt (again) and has no timetable to return, but there's plenty of ammo on offense. A full season of Yasiel Puig will certainly help, and this team has the rotation to go deep into October. While the rotation is fantastic, I'm not sure about the bullpen; Kenley Jansen was pretty good in the closer role for the Dodgers last year, so I think they'll be fine, but I'm not positive. Overall though, this is a team that will be in the running come October.
2014 Prediction: 93-69
2013: 76-86 (T-3rd in NL West), Missed playoffs; 20 wins below COAS Prediction.
I totally goofed on these guys last year. For whatever reason these guys just didn't click right in their title defense, but I can't see why they can't be right in the running again this season. If Tim Lincecum can regain some of his Cy Young form as the projected fourth starter on this team, the Giants will be in great shape. The lineup and bullpen are also solid, so I see them battling with the Dodgers most of the year for the division title. Sorry to the two guys in my Twitter fantasy league that I know are Giants fans, I have LA by a small margin.
2014 Prediction: 88-74
2013: 81-81 (2nd in NL West), Missed Playoffs; 3 wins above COAS Prediction.
This is another pretty good rotation from a team that played pretty well in 2013. Adding Bronson Arroyo and Brandon McCarthy to be your projected third and fourth starters puts you in pretty good shape. I wouldn't put them in the same class as the Dodgers or Giants obviously, but they're a good staff. I'll be interested to see how Addison Reed performs in the closer role here. On offense, there are a few decent bats, and the addition of Mark Trumbo will help protect Paul Goldschmidt. They'll be a good team in the running, but I don't think they have the pitching or the offense to quite keep up with the class of the division.
2014 Prediction: 84-78
2013: 74-88 (5th in NL West), Missed playoffs; 5 wins above COAS Prediction.
The offense here is pretty good with the addition of Justin Morneau to complement Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez, plus he gets to reunite with Michael Cuddyer, so there's that. They'll score a fair amount of runs I think, but I'm not really sold on their rotation. Also, LaTroy Hawkins is their closer. I'll just leave it at that.
2014 Prediction: 75-87
2013: 76-86 (T-3rd in NL West), Missed playoffs; 4 wins below COAS Prediction.
There's some decent young talent on this team, and a good veteran presence in Carlos Quentin in the middle of the lineup, but I'm just not that impressed overall. I'd expect good seasons out of guys like Yonder Alonso and Will Venable, but I just don't think it's enough. I also think their starting pitching is a little weak. Andrew Cashner isn't a bad pitcher, but I just don't think he an ace. The Padres need a little work going forward if they want to compete in this division.
2014 Prediction: 68-94
One division down, five to go. Tomorrow I'm going to swap leagues but stay out on the Pacific coast to take a look at the AL West.
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