2017 NCAA NCSS Rankings: Week 10

Happy Halloween from Confessions of a Sportscaster! Unfortunately, this morning I don't really have anything scary cooked up for you. Instead, I'm back to looking at college football schedules.

The fun part is that tonight begins the reign of MACtion as we get our middle of the week football fix. Last week had a little MACtion on Thursday night, but not the Tuesday-Wednesday mix of stuff that's fun. There are a handful of Thursday games though to take a look at as well.

If you need a refresher on how this metric works, you can read that in my season introductory post. Let's look at what we've got coming up.

2017 NCAA Death to the BCS Playoffs: Week 9 Mock Bracket

I think this past weekend was the sort of weekend Dan Wetzel, Josh Peter, and Jeff Passan had in mind when they penned the masterpiece you see to your left. There was a ton of chaos, and so many games with playoff impact were played that invoked said chaos. It's further proof that the playoff system they envisioned enhanced the regular season rather than dilute it.

If you haven't read this book, I highly recommend it. But their basic premise for an ideal playoff is this: 16 teams, with each conference getting an automatic bid for its champion, and the field being filled by deserving at large squads. I love the premise, and as such have tried to fill a bracket with their methodology for the last few years. Here's the best part about it though: higher seeds host for the first three rounds, so we're playing games in iconic stadiums on campus in front of partisan crowds instead of neutral site stadiums that may end up half empty. As such, the regular season really matters, because the difference between a 4 seed and a 5 seed is a second home game.

The tricky part comes in how to fill the field, and then how to seed it. To do that, I use a number of metrics. I begin with a glance at Non-Conference Schedule Strength (NCSS), which is a rough look at how tough of a non-conference slate teams are playing (basically, are they playing road games against Power Five opponents or a bunch of home games against Group of Five teams or FCS opponents). At the end of the day though, results matter. That's where First Degree (PP1), Second Degree (PP2), and Adjust Playoff Points (aPP) come in: they go beyond just a won-lost record and figure out how good the teams they beat truly are. Finally, to help reduce bias on my part and to give additional data points, I consult computer rankings compiled by Jeff Sagarin (SAG), a UCLA staff member using the late David Rothman's formula (ROTH), and from the website All My Sports Teams Suck (AMSTS). These factors all kind of organically combine to build the playoff field.

I'm at the point now where I do a mock bracket every week, at least once I can build it without screwing any undefeated teams out of a spot. With a number of them falling this past week, it may create some at large headaches, but we'll see how it goes!

2017 NCAA Playoff Points: Week 9

I'm running a little behind this week. With Halloween tomorrow and hosting a family party for several of Kristen's and my parent friends, other than scoreboard glancing I saw pretty much no college football over the weekend and didn't get to poring through results until today.

There was chaos over the weekend though, and the numbers we had last week will probably be vastly different this week.

So this morning, I'm going through all the results, and below you will see how each conference ranks in average win totals and the various forms of Playoff Points. If you need a refresher on how Playoff Points work, you can view that here.

2017 COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em Week 8

We're nearing the halfway point of the season

I'm pretty sure last week Adam and I set a record for groupthink, and we ended up splitting the two games we disagreed on. That keeps him a couple games ahead of me on the year. Meanwhile, Bulls Confidential blogger Geoffrey Clark padded his lead a little bit this week with a 2-1 week on hero picks. It's brought his average back down to earth a little bit, but he's still excelled in those games. You can view a full breakdown of our picks in relation to each other here. I share that primarily because the ESPN standings are off by a couple games on Adam's side since he picked wrong on there back in Week 1. Fortunately for him, the official standings are based on the picks we make here.

This week, all semblance of groupthink is gone as Adam and I disagree on seven games out of 13. He is in California this week on government business, but still found time in between his work and visiting local breweries to send a short set of picks.

2017 NCAA NCSS Rankings: Week 9

We only have a few short weeks left before we get to Championship Weekend, but there are still plenty of non-conference games left to be played. As such, it's time to take a look at the schedule again.

Last week saw us settle into what the pecking order basically is in terms of this metric: the Group of Five conference at the top, then the Power Five below them. Of course, some things can change, and they will.

If you need a refresher on how this metric works, you can read that in my season introductory post. Let's look at the schedule!

2017 NCAA Death to the BCS Playoffs: Week 8 Mock Bracket

We're still a little over a month away from Championship Saturday, which means I can't fully prepare an actual playoff bracket quite yet. But it's good to get the practice in, and in an alternate universe where this is the actual playoff format, it's good practice for the selection committee. And so, I undertake my third mock of the season.

This is a playoff system outlined in the book pictured to the left, written a few years back by Dan Wetzel, Josh Peter, and Jeff Passan. The premise of the book is simple: the old BCS system of deciding a national champion was elitist, possibly illegal, and patently unfair. So they came up with a fairer one that enhances the regular season: 16 teams, made up of the 10 conference champions (11 when the book was written), with the rest of the field filled by at large selections. They play with home field advantage for the first three rounds, making the season really mean something, and meaning that my seeding of this tournament needs to be perfect.

To help decide the at large teams and seed the field, I look over scores and try to watch games if I can, but because I can't watch every game, I use several metrics to help me out. To a minor degree I check a team's non conference schedule in the form of Non Conference Schedule Strength (NCSS). At the end of the day though, I'm more concerned about results, which is why hopefully you read today's Playoff Points rankings, where I look at First Degree, Second Degree, and Adjusted Playoff Points (PP1, PP2, and aPP, respectively). That's basically a look at win totals of defeated opponents in a few different ways. You can view a full outline of how that metric works in my season introductory post. Then, to ensure that I eliminate any possible bias I may have, I also check three different computer rankings that factor in margin of victory: Jeff Sagarin's (SAG), the late David Rothman's via a UCLA staff member (ROTH), and from the website All My Sports Teams Suck (AMSTS). These factors are all kind of organically combined to build out a bracket, which you can view the newest mock of after the jump.

2017 NCAA Playoff Points: Week 8

We continue on with our look at the 2017 college football season with a look back at the numbers from Week 8.

You've probably noted by now that by and large, I don't really go into individual results of games. This post takes into focus conference averages of win totals and more of an in depth look into how good teams actually are.

With these numbers in mind, combined with a few others, later today I'll come back with my third Death to the BCS Playoffs mock bracket. But for now, here are the updated Playoff Point numbers. In case you need a reminder of how these work, you can view that here.