2015 NCAA NCSS Rankings: Week 11

Another mock bracket is out and our Week 10 look is concluded. Week 11 gets underway tonight with some MACtion, so we need to be ready with a look at the schedule.

Last week saw a little flipping between conferences, but it's interesting to see the clear dividing line: the Group of Five all make up the top five in these rankings, while the Power Five conferences rank 6-10, and pretty much have for all but the entire season. Since we're mostly doing in-conference games for the rest of the year, most of the ranking will remain the same, at least for the next week or so until Nick Saban and other SEC shills show how big of cowards they are.

After the jump, I will show this week's average NCSS score as well as their cumulative total. Let's take a look.

2015 Death to the BCS Playoffs: Week 10 Mock Bracket

Last week was the easy bracket. This week, it gets harder.

We lost enough undefeated teams that at the same as the College Football Playoff got to begin discussions, my committee of one got to start looking at setting up the playoff system proposed by Wetzel, Peter and Passan. If you need a refresher, this is a 16-team playoff bracket including the ten conference champions and filled in with six at large teams. These teams are then seeded 1-16, with home court advantage going to the higher seeds in the first three rounds.

So to determine the at large teams and the seedings, I use my NCSS rankings and Playoff Points rankings, the full information for which can be found on my Google Sheet. I then also add in consideration from a pair of computer rankings that include margin of victory: one by Jeff Sagarin, who used to do one of the computer rankings for the BCS, but his BCS one did not consider margin of victory because of "sportsmanship", or so the Cartel claimed; and one by the late David Rothman as compiled by a UCLA faculty member. These factors will combine somewhat organically to form the bracket. So after much self-deliberation, here's what we're looking at for this week's mock.

2015 NCAA Playoff Points: Week 10

The results are in, and several undefeated teams are out of the mix.

We're down to just six undefeated teams ten weeks in, which means a bunch of teams will now be in the mix for the Death to the BCS Playoffs. That comes a little later today. For now, I need to update results from the weekend as it pertains to Playoff Points, which saw some fairly significant changes from last week.

So below, I will go conference by conference with a look at their average wins and Playoff Points, both First and Second Degree. I'll also take a quick look at some of the national leaders in advance of preparing my second mock bracket. If you need a refresher on how Playoff Points work, you can refer back to my Week 1 post.

2015 COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em: Week 9

Things are evening out a bit, at least on a one-week basis amongst the coalition as we reach the halfway point of the season.

With eight weeks in the books, Adam is still firmly in the lead amongst our little group, though I'm kind of hanging around, and we have to remember that I had a bigger lead a little later in the season last year that I nearly blew, only to hang on by the slimmest of margins in Week 17. I'm hoping I can complete a similar comeback in the second half.

I didn't do myself any favors last week, as Adam got the back door cover on Monday night to take four of the seven disputed games. Money line-wise, Adam is up about $350 on the year, while I'm failing miserably, down almost $1500. Good thing I only laid down $20 on two Week 1 games while in Vegas and the rest of this is all hypothetical...

We had a rare moment of groupthink this week, and actually, one of the best examples we've seen yet. Adam and I disagree on just two games this week, which is a season low and might be a low in our 26 weeks doing this. Here are our thoughts for Week 9.

2015 NCAA NCSS Rankings: Week 10

With our first mock bracket out, the debate over playoff resumes can truly begin. Of course, as we continue on with the season though, we need to continue to gather data to make informed decisions.

For the last several weeks, there has been a minimal amount of change in these rankings with the conferences just because of the sheer amount of in-conference play. Last week was no exception. This week will see more of the same by nature.

I do this post on Tuesdays mainly because of MACtion, which kicks off today with NIU and Toledo. This covers everyone

Following the jump, I will post this week's score and the cumulative score for the season. I'll also check in on last week's ranking. Let's take a look.

2015 Death to the BCS Playoffs: Week 9 Mock Bracket

Now we get to the fun part.

There are currently 11 undefeated teams left in the Football Bowl Subdivision, and at this stage, that is enough to finally start putting together a mock bracket for the Death to the BCS Playoffs.

If you are a regular reader of Confessions of a Sportscaster, you know that I have a disdain for the elitism rampant in big time college football (so much so that it is the topic of my final project in my master's class this fall). Even the College Football Playoff isn't good enough. It's a good start... but we need more. You can't have a true national champion if everyone doesn't have a chance to compete for it. That is why for years I have advocated for the playoff format laid out by Dan Wetzel, Josh Peter and Jeff Passan in their 2010 book Death to the BCS.

The system is simple: 16 teams. The 10 conference champions get automatic bids into the playoffs, while the rest of the field is filled in with at-large teams. These teams are seeded 1-16, and home field advantage goes to the higher seeds for the first three rounds, incentivizing the regular season. The title game, after I've moved it around a little bit, in a recent re-reading of the book reminded me of the true location of the title game: Pasadena, in the Rose Bowl. How could it be anywhere else?

Now, how do I fill out the field and seed everyone? To decide on this, I use a little bit of the eye test, but I also have a few metrics to help me out. I start with taking a look at the NCSS scores that I've been compiling since Week 1. While imperfect, this helps read into how much of a challenge teams are taking with their non-conference schedule. To get a good look at resumes, I also grab a glance at First and Second Degree Playoff Points, which I have been compiling as well since Week 1. This helps determine the differences between teams with similar records and how good their vanquished foes are. All of these scores can be found on my Google Sheet.

To balance out any potential biases I may have, I then also use a pair of computer rankings that take margin of victory into account, because a narrow win and a 30 points win mean different things. Jeff Sagarin did one of the old BCS computer rankings, but I take his ranking that includes margin of victory instead of his old BCS one that did not. His "rating" is the one that is used for Death to the BCS purposes. Also, the late David Rothman did computer rankings on his own, but was not allowed to use it for the BCS because, again, it included margin of victory. Before he died, he made his formula public, and a UCLA faculty member computes the rankings using that formula.

These factors will be combined somewhat organically to produce the 16 team field. Here is our first one of the season.

2015 NCAA Playoff Points: Week 9

It took nine weeks, and we're still at 11 undefeated teams in FBS football. However, they are distributed such that we can officially start building mock brackets after thinking that last week would have been my first crack.

To help determine seedings and what have you for these mocks, we need to update some rankings. To me, Playoff Points are among the most important rankings to keep updated. They really help us see through some of the BS that of records and look to see just how good a team really is.

Now, before I get into everything, I have to touch on the ending to the Miami-Duke game. I watched the final play. There are a million and one reasons why Duke got screwed by the officials on that play, and they won that game, not Miami. However, because the ACC is dumb and/or corrupt, the record books will show the Hurricanes winning this game. Because of the cluster that could come of me trying to subjectively reject official final scores because of perceived injustice (even when the perception is reality), I'm applying the Playoff Points based on the ruling on the field. I'm sorry, Duke. File a protest with the ACC and the NCAA and get your rightful win, and I will change this.

If you need a refresher on how Playoff Points work, you can refer back to my Week 1 post. Let's take a look at the updated rankings.