Of the 16 rounds that we've simulated so far, 15 of them have been won by the higher seed, most of them well short of the full seven. The biggest surprise to date was the 1995 Rockets falling in five; they were the highest seeded 3rd place team and won the consolation bracket in the 2016 tournament, and after a 15-5 group play resume, they fall almost immediately.
Initially by happenstance, then in the last part by design, I haven't simulated series yet such that we know what any of the Round of 32 matchups are yet. We'll know what four of the 16 will be following the conclusion of these series.
The up to date bracket, scores, and results from Group Play can be found here. All simulations are provided by WhatIfSports.com. Let's get to it!
(5) 1971 Utah Stars vs (4) 1997 Utah Jazz
Game 1: @ '97 UTA 120, '71 UTA 110 (OT)
In just the second overtime game of the Elimination Stage, it was the Jazz holding control for most of the opening period until a late 11-1 Stars run flipped the script, though an Antoine Carr shot at the buzzer made the margin six. After Carr hit another to open the second, the Stars went on a 13-2 run to build a 15 point lead. The Jazz would fight back, cutting the margin to eight by halftime thanks to another shot at the buzzer, this one by John Stockton. The hosts finally took their first lead of the second half four minutes in on a Stockton three, though it was short lived as the Stars immediately answered. The end of the frame went back and forth, with a Red Robbins jumper with 42 seconds left giving the visitors a two point lead going to the final quarter. After pushing the lead to six early, the Jazz retook the lead a few minutes in on a Karl Malone three point play. The lead went back and forth for much of the frame, though the Jazz seemed poised to take the game on another Malone three point play with 24 seconds left gave them a four point lead, and two more free throws after a Stars basket pushed it back to four with 16 seconds left. Then Robbins buried a three to cut it to one, and after Malone split a pair of free throws, Zelmo Beaty hit from 17 feet at the buzzer to force an extra session. Stockton hit a shot on the hosts' opening possession, and the Jazz would not relinquish that lead.
Karl Malone ('97 UTA): 37 pts, 10 reb, 4 ast
John Stockton ('97 UTA): 20 pts, 6 reb, 14 ast, 4 stl
Zelmo Beaty ('71 UTA): 26 pts, 14 reb, 3 blk
Game 2: @ '97 UTA 104, '71 UTA 88
The Stars largely dominated the early part of the game, leading for most of the first, including by as many as nine, but the Jazz closed the period on a 6-0 run to make it just a three point game. It took two minutes for either team to score in the second, but it was a big one as Jeff Hornacek hit a game-tying three. An extended 8-2 Jazz run gave them a six point lead, which held until the later part of the quarter. A John Stockton free throw line jumper with 44 seconds left in the half gave the hosts a two point lead, which they took to the locker room. The Stars came out firing in the second half though, scoring the first 11 points to build a lead of nine again. The hosts responded with an 11-0 run of their own to retake the lead, though the Stars fought back to take the slimmest of leads going to the fourth. The first few minutes of the period went back and forth until an extended 22-4 Jazz run determined the outcome.
Karl Malone ('97 UTA): 23 pts, 16 reb, 6 ast, 3 stl
Jeff Hornacek ('97 UTA): 26 pts, 7 reb, 5 ast)
Zelmo Beaty ('71 UTA): 27 pts, 13 reb, 5 blk
Game 3: '97 UTA 105, @ '71 UTA 86
The Jazz roared out to a 10-3 lead, and ended up leading for the entire opening stanza. The Stars kept it close for the entire first half as they kept the margin at single digits the whole time, but the Jazz had an answer every time the Stars pulled to within a possession, and the visitors led by just one going to the break. The Stars scored the first six of the second half to finally grab a lead, then went back and forth for the rest of the quarter before Zelmo Beaty hit a 16 footer that gave the Stars a 76-75 lead with just two seconds left. After a Beaty dunk opened the fourth, the Jazz went on an extended 16-2 run to seize control of the game, and they held the Stars to just 10 points for the stanza as they take a stranglehold on the series.
Karl Malone ('97 UTA): 36 pts, 10 reb, 6 ast
John Stockton ('97 UTA): 11 pts, 4 reb, 13 ast, 5 stl
Zelmo Beaty ('71 UTA): 16 pts, 10 reb
After a back and forth first quarter, it was the visitors who held the four point lead, then Greg Ostertag hit a couple shots early in the second to push the Jazz lead to eight. The Stars cut it to as little as two at one point in the quarter, but the Jazz got a John Stockton jumper to push the margin to 11 going into the half. An 8-0 run midway through the third got the Jazz well on their way to the sweep, and an Antoine Carr bank shot at the third quarter buzzer made it a 15 point game. After a Zelmo Beaty drive opened the fourth, the Jazz scored the next 11 to push the margin past 20 and that was it.
Karl Malone ('97 UTA): 21 pts, 15 reb, 6 ast
John Stockton ('97 UTA): 18 pts, 6 reb, 14 ast
Zelmo Beaty ('71 UTA): 23 pts, 11 reb
(5) 1993 Phoenix Suns vs (4) 1986 Boston Celtics
Game 1: @ '86 BOS 122, '93 PHX 100
Boston got off to a good start, but it wasn't until late in the quarter when they went on a run, scoring the period's final eight points for a 28-21 lead. The Celtics got it to double digits about four and a half minutes into the second and managed to mostly keep it there, with a Danny Ainge three with 10 seconds left before the break making it a 16 point game. The Suns fought back to open the second half, using a 13-4 run to trim the margin back to single digits. Phoenix got within four with under three minutes left in the third, but Boston answered and pushed the lead back to ten to end the frame on a Robert Parish shot at the buzzer. The Celtics opened the fourth with the first six points and the Suns would not seriously threaten the rest of the way.
Larry Bird ('86 BOS): 32 pts, 9 reb, 9 ast, 3 stl
Danny Ainge ('86 BOS): 15 pts, 4 reb, 7 ast, 3 stl
Charles Barkley ('93 PHX): 18 pts, 11 reb, 7 ast
Game 2: @ '86 BOS 111, '93 PHX 102
The Suns used an 8-0 run midway through the opening quarter to take control of the game, and they led by that margin after one thanks in part to a Danny Ainge shot at the buzzer. Boston's Ainge sparked a 6-0 run to open the second to get the Celtics back in it, though the Suns would end up pushing the lead back up to nine with about three and a half minutes left in the half. But that was the last Phoenix field goal for the half, and the Celtics closed on a 6-1 run to trim the deficit to four going to the locker room. The Suns managed to push it to double digits early in the second half, but the Celtics closed the third quarter on an 18-3 run, with the Suns' lone field goal coming with just 21 seconds left to snap a drought of over six minutes without one and cutting Boston's lead to seven. Phoenix cut it to three with just over nine minutes left, then again a couple more times before a Dan Majerle three made it a two point game at the halfway mark. Six straight from the Celtics with just under three minutes to go pushed the lead back out, and the Celtics were able to escape having defended home court successfully.
Larry Bird ('86 BOS): 26 pts, 5 reb, 10 ast
Kevin McHale ('86 BOS): 25 pts, 8 reb
Charles Barkley ('93 PHX): 25 pts, 14 reb, 4 ast
Game 3: @ '93 PHX 104, '86 BOS 100
An 11-2 Phoenix run early in the game put the Suns in control. Boston responded late in the period with a 12-4 run to take a brief lead, which Charles Barkley immediately erased, but a Dennis Johnson dunk with one second left gave Boston the one point lead back. The second period was a very back and forth affair with neither team being able to press an advantage, and ended with a Bird shot with two seconds left that gave the Celtics a one point lead at the intermission. After some back and forth early in the third, a 13-4 Suns run gave them control of the contest, leading to a nine point advantage going to the fourth. Phoenix's Danny Ainge hit a quick three to put the Suns up 12, but the Celtics roared back to tie the game, though they couldn't get over the hump as Phoenix retook the lead. They led by as many as nine with 2:45 to play, but the Celtics scored the next seven to make it a one score game. With about 20 seconds left, Larry Bird missed a potential game-tying three, then missed a putback, and Kevin Johnson hit a clinching free throw to get the Suns on the board in the series.
Charles Barkley ('93 PHX): 32 pts, 18 reb, 6 ast
Kevin Johnson ('93 PHX): 18 pts, 7 ast
Larry Bird ('86 BOS): 24 pts, 12 reb, 5 ast
Game 4: '86 BOS 106, @ '93 PHX 96
The Suns again got out and running in this one, using a 15-4 run to take early control of the game. The Celtics managed to keep it close though, trimming the deficit to six by quarter's end. Boston fought back and took a brief lead midway through the second, then used a Greg Kite runner with time winding down to go to halftime up three. The teams traded 6-0 runs early in the second half before Boston slowly started to pull away, getting the game's first double digit lead with 2:10 left in the period. The Suns weren't done though and closed the frame on a 7-0 run. The Celtics managed to push the lead back to double digits a few minutes into the fourth, and they would lead by as many as 13 to seal the Game 4 victory.
Larry Bird ('86 BOS): 19 pts, 10 reb, 9 ast, 3 stl
Robert Parish ('86 BOS): 23 pts, 11 reb
Charles Barkley ('93 PHX): 22 pts, 15 reb, 4 ast
Game 5: '93 PHX 107, @ '86 BOS 103
Phoenix's trend of getting out to a good start continues, as they scored six straight early in the contest to find a rhythm, and it helped propel the Suns to an eight point lead after one quarter. They doubled that lead in the first three and a half minutes of the second, then survived a 7-0 Celtics run and hung on to keep a ten point lead going into the break. The Celtics would cut it to six several times in the early part of the third, but the Suns would push the margin as high as 13 before a late Boston push got them back within seven. A 6-0 Celtic run early in the fourth cut the margin to just one, but the Suns responded with a 12-2 run to go back up double digits. Boston would pull within six a couple times before getting it to five with 18 seconds left, and a Larry Bird three made it a one possession game with just nine ticks left. But Charles Barkley iced the game with a pair of free throws and the Suns survive to fight another day.
Charles Barkley ('93 PHX): 39 pts, 20 reb, 6 ast
Larry Bird ('86 BOS): 24 pts, 11 reb, 14 ast, 4 stl
Kevin McHale ('86 BOS): 24 pts, 6 reb
This time it was the Celtics who had a first quarter run, scoring eight straight midway through the first to build a lead, got it to double digits by the four minute mark, then took a seven point lead to the second. Phoenix cut it to one early in the second quarter, but a 15-1 Boston run gave the Celtics a firm grip on things. The Suns would respond by cutting it to two late in the half, before settling into the intermission down four. But in the second half it took Phoenix nearly five and a half minutes to get their first field goal, and by then the Celtics were back up double digits. The Suns would get within eight before the Celtics went to the fourth up 11. A 9-0 Boston run early in the fourth effectively ended the series as the Celtics take care of business.
Robert Parish ('86 BOS): 17 pts, 18 reb
Larry Bird ('86 BOS): 22 pts, 13 reb, 11 ast
Charles Barkley ('93 PHX): 20 pts, 17 reb, 4 ast
(6) 1985 Los Angeles Lakers vs (3) 2019 Toronto Raptors
Game 1: @ '19 TOR 104, '85 LAL 96
Pascal Siakam went off to start the game, scoring nine of Toronto's first 11 en route to an 11-4 lead early. But a 9-0 Laker run flipped the script and we settled into a tight one, with a Serge Ibaka three point play at the end of the period cutting the Lakers' lead to just one. LA then opened the second on an 11-2 run and built a decent lead, but Siakam went on a personal 12-2 run to put the Raptors back in front, leading to a four point halftime advantage. The Raptors hit a few threes early in the third to push their advantage, finally getting it to double digits midway through the period. Eight straight from the Lakers cut it back to two, and after a brief Toronto answer, Kurt Rambis hit a pair of free throws to tie the game with about a minute to play. But the Raptors scored the quarter's final eight and retook the lead. The margin held around that until just under four minutes left when the Lakers scored eight in a row to make it a three point game. But Kawhi Leonard went 6-6 at the free throw line in the final 24 seconds to secure the win for the Raptors.
Pascal Siakam ('19 TOR): 33 pts, 10 reb, 4 ast
Kawhi Leonard ('19 TOR): 24 pts
Magic Johnson ('85 LAL): 27 pts, 7 reb, 12 ast
Game 2: '85 LAL 124, @ '19 TOR 115
The Raptors seemed to have things under wraps early, leading by as many as five in the opening quarter before a Byron Scott jumper at the buzzer cut it to one. This prompted a back and forth second quarter, with the Raptors at one point pushing their lead to six before a 9-0 Laker run gave LA the lead. They answered a Kawhi game-tying three with a 9-2 run, and the Lakers held on, using a James Worthy layup that beat the buzzer to go into the locker room up three. The Lakers opened the second half on a 7-2 run, then later used an 8-0 run to grab the game's first double digit lead. The margin got to 13 by the end of the third, but Toronto started a barrage from deep, cutting it to four just over two minutes into the fourth. Seven straight from the Lakers got it back to 11, and the Raptors would get no closer than six the rest of the way.
Magic Johnson ('85 LAL): 14 pts, 9 reb, 16 ast
James Worthy ('85 LAL): 21 pts, 8 reb
Serge Ibaka ('19 TOR): 25 pts, 10 reb
Game 3: '19 TOR 116, @ '85 LAL 92
Despite a back and forth start to the game, the Raptors did get out to a decent sized early lead before the Lakers fought it back to two by period's end. An extended 13-4 Toronto run got the margin to double digits, though again the Lakers would keep it close, cutting the deficit to seven going into the locker room. But the Raptors dominated the first seven minutes of the second half, using a 17-4 run to push the lead to 20. A mini Laker run in the fourth got it down to 14, but that was close as LA would get.
Kawhi Leonard ('19 TOR): 36 pts, 10 reb
Pascal Siakam ('19 TOR): 23 pts, 10 reb
Magic Johnson ('85 LAL): 11 pts, 8 reb, 10 ast
Game 4: @ '85 LAL 109, '19 TOR 100
The Lakers did not panic falling behind 8-0 early, as they used separate 7-0 and 9-0 runs to take a nine point lead after one quarter. After a Mitch Kupchak pushed it to double digits to open the second, the Raptors scored the next nine to get back in the game. The Lakers responded and managed to keep the margin around the two to three possession mark before a Kurt Rambis 65 foot heave at the halftime buzzer found its mark and gave the Lakers a ten point lead. The margin stayed around that mark for much of the third quarter, but an 8-0 LA run helped push the lead to as high as 16. The Raptors managed to pull within five with just five minutes to go in the game, then to four with two and a half to go, but the Lakers scored the next eight to put the game out of reach and tie the series.
Magic Johnson ('85 LAL): 14 pts, 7 reb, 17 ast
Kurt Rambis ('85 LAL): 15 pts, 13 reb
Kyle Lowry ('19 TOR): 12 pts, 11 ast, 5 stl
Game 5: '85 LAL 112, @ '19 TOR 102
Toronto started this game well enough, leading for much of the opening quarter and closing it with six straight to go up nine. The Raptors would lead by as many as 13 in the second, but the Lakers wouldn't go away, getting back within four late, then got a Larry Spriggs tip at the buzzer to get the deficit to five going to the locker room. LA followed that up with eight straight to open the second half and retake the lead. Toronto would keep it close though, and we went to the fourth tied at 72. The Raptors opened the fourth on a 9-2 run, then answered Laker two's with three's to get the lead to double digits. But LA responded with a cold-blooded 18-4 run that saw Toronto go almost six minutes without a field goal. Kyle Lowry hit a couple threes in the final couple minutes, but the Lakers put the game away at the free throw line and are one win away from advancing.
Magic Johnson ('85 LAL): 18 pts, 6 reb, 18 ast
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar ('85 LAL): 20 pts, 9 reb
Kawhi Leonard ('19 TOR): 32 pts, 13 reb
Early on this looked like it would be a runaway, as the Lakers used a 17-3 run in the opening quarter to take firm control, going into the second quarter up 11. LA led by as many as 14 early in the frame, and kept the margin in double digits for much of the period, but a late Toronto surge managed to get it down to four by halftime. It took two and a half minutes for the Lakers to get their first field goal of the second half, but Kareem's shot gave the Lakers a 69-67 lead. A couple Toronto threes flipped that around, and we settled into a tight game that saw the Raptors go up three going into the final 12 minutes. But Bob McAdoo went off for 9 of the Lakers' first 13 in the period, spanning almost half the quarter, including a basket that gave LA the lead. The Lakers finally got it back to double digits with just under three minutes to play, and that was enough to give the defending Champion of Champions a pass to the Round of 32.
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar ('85 LAL): 27 pts, 8 reb, 4 ast
Byron Scott ('85 LAL): 22 pts, 6 reb, 3 stl
Magic Johnson ('85 LAL): 17 pts, 7 reb, 14 ast
(5) 1971 Milwaukee Bucks vs (4) 2001 Los Angeles Lakers
Game 1: '71 MIL 115, @ '01 LAL 104
The Bucks led for most of the opening quarter, though the Lakers kept it close, trailing by just two after 12 minutes. The second was a very back and forth affair, seeing seven ties and four lead changes, with Oscar Robertson providing the fourth at the halftime buzzer. Milwaukee finally got the best run of the game to that point midway through the third, scoring seven straight to get a little bit of a cushion. Even then, the Lakers still managed to get back to within three by quarter's end. The game stayed around that margin until with around two minutes left the Bucks notched a 7-0 run to effectively clinch the game.
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar ('71 MIL): 38 pts, 16 reb
Oscar Robertson ('71 MIL): 22 pts, 4 reb, 9 ast, 3 stl
Shaquille O'Neal ('01 LAL): 31 pts, 15 reb, 5 blk
Game 2: '71 MIL 106, @ '01 LAL 103
After the Lakers took an early 9-4 lead, the Bucks fought back, eventually grabbing the lead midway through the quarter and using an 8-2 run late to fuel a five point lead at quarter's end. The Lakers kept it close in the second, even taking a brief lead. But Milwaukee went on a 12-2 run to grab firm control. LA cut it to one with just a second left on a Robert Horry jumper, but the Bucks somehow got the ball back downcourt to Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, who buried a shot from the block at the buzzer to get the lead back to three. The Lakers would score seven straight early in the third quarter to briefly take the lead back, though the Bucks answered right back and led by as many as nine late in the stanza. Milwaukee pushed the margin to 10 briefly in the fourth before the Lakers stormed back, making it a one possession game a couple times before Milwaukee seemingly pulled away, going up seven with 4:25 to play. The Lakers had one last push in them, with Shaquille O'Neal scoring six straight to tie the game at 103. With under a minute to go though, their efforts fell apart as Shaq got whistled for a charge, then Jon McGlocklin got fouled and hit his two free throws to go up two with 31 seconds left. Kareem blocked a Kobe Bryant try, then split a pair to put the Bucks up three, missing the second where Rick Fox grabbed the rebound. He had enough time to get down the floor and launch a game-tying three, only it hit front iron and the Bucks go back home up two games to none.
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar ('71 MIL): 26 pts, 17 reb, 4 ast, 7 blk
Jon McGlocklin ('71 MIL): 24 pts
Shaquille O'Neal ('01 LAL): 37 pts, 14 reb, 5 ast
Game 3: @ '71 MIL 125, '01 LAL 114
A 10-2 Bucks run early in the first got the hosts off and running with a sizable lead. The Lakers managed to keep it fairly close, with a Kobe Bryant bucket at the buzzer cutting the margin to six after one quarter. The first half of the second quarter was full of the Lakers making it a one score game, only to almost immediately give up an answer. Then the Bucks went on a 9-0 run to make it a 12 point game, and the margin stayed there going into halftime thanks in part to an Oscar Robertson dunk at the buzzer. The Lakers could not cut into the margin in the third as Milwaukee slowly pushed the lead to 20, and eventually as high as 24 late in the frame. The Lakers got within 16 halfway through the fourth, but quickly surrendered a couple buckets, to the point where both teams emptied their benches as the outcome was decided. LA's reserves managed to get the margin more palatable, but the Bucks got a firm grip on the series.
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar ('71 MIL): 27 pts, 20 reb, 3 stl, 3 blk
Oscar Robertson ('71 MIL): 24 pts, 4 reb, 9 ast
Shaquille O'Neal ('01 LAL): 36 pts, 14 reb, 3 blk
Smelling blood in the water, the Bucks opened the game on an 8-2 run. The Lakers responded, tying the game a few times before a 10-4 Milwaukee run closed the quarter to put the Bucks up seven. LA tried to keep it close, but the margin hit double digits by the halfway point of the second and almost doubled to 18 when Greg Smith hit a three right before the halftime buzzer. The margin stayed near 20 for almost the entire third quarter, though the Lakers were able to cut it to 16 by stanza's end. The Lakers' last great chance was cutting the margin to 13 with about seven minutes to go, but that was as close as it got before the teams emptied their benches. Both teams would get the starters back in with about 90 seconds to go and the margin down to 11, but at that point it was too late as the Bucks secured the upset sweep.
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar ('71 MIL): 22 pts, 17 reb, 3 blk
Oscar Robertson ('71 MIL): 22 pts, 9 reb, 7 ast
Shaquille O'Neal ('01 MIL): 28 pts, 19 reb, 5 ast, 3 blk
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