Maybe that's just me rationalizing after the fact. Despite me having a wonderful oh-for-the-early-slate, I rebounded enough so that Adam only took four of seven disputed games from me; he took three of five from Joe, and Joe and I split our six disputed games last week.
My first sub-.500 week of the year drops me four games back of the lead at this early stage, yet I'm still in a big group tied for second. At this point, just six games separate first place from last place, and everyone is at least at .500 for the year to date.
You can view how we've all picked in relation to each other here. Adam hit on another hero pick, putting him at 3-1 in such games on the season to date, which seems to be in keeping with his hit rate on those. We're also staying just above .500 as a group on consensus picks, which is part of why our overall records are doing okay to this point.
As we look ahead to Week 5, this could either go really well, or really really badly. Joe and I disagree on just two games, which is pretty low for us. And then there's Adam... we each disagree with him on nine of the 14 games this week. Let's get to it!
Thursday Night
San Francisco 49ers @ Los Angeles Rams (-5.5)
Lucas: Rams. Stafford to Puka just seems unfair at this point.
Adam: Rams. Line seems about right, but with San Francisco banged up and on the road, give me the Rams to cover probably on a last minute field goal.
Joe: Rams.
Lucas: Rams. Stafford to Puka just seems unfair at this point.
Adam: Rams. Line seems about right, but with San Francisco banged up and on the road, give me the Rams to cover probably on a last minute field goal.
Joe: Rams.
Sunday Morning
Minnesota Vikings vs Cleveland Browns (+3.5)
Lucas: Browns. Now that KOC is 15-4 with ginger quarterbacks... while I like the fact that Minnesota stayed across the pond for their London game, I think Cleveland's defense has a good bounceback game. And maybe Dillon Gabriel will show something?
Adam: Browns. I like Cleveland to win outright, but this will serve as evidence to all NFL teams to not take back to back games overseas. Minnesota just lost by a field goal; I like that same result here.
Lucas: Browns. Now that KOC is 15-4 with ginger quarterbacks... while I like the fact that Minnesota stayed across the pond for their London game, I think Cleveland's defense has a good bounceback game. And maybe Dillon Gabriel will show something?
Adam: Browns. I like Cleveland to win outright, but this will serve as evidence to all NFL teams to not take back to back games overseas. Minnesota just lost by a field goal; I like that same result here.
Joe: Vikings.
Sunday, Early Afternoon
Las Vegas Raiders @ Indianapolis Colts (-6.5)
Lucas: Colts. Indy played pretty well in its loss last week, and they get a good bounceback candidate here.
Adam: Raiders. Just a gut play. I like to think the Colts are still not real and getting overhyped. Vegas is coming off a tough one against my Bears. A get right game.
Lucas: Colts. Indy played pretty well in its loss last week, and they get a good bounceback candidate here.
Adam: Raiders. Just a gut play. I like to think the Colts are still not real and getting overhyped. Vegas is coming off a tough one against my Bears. A get right game.
Joe: Colts.
New York Giants @ New Orleans Saints (-1.5)
Lucas: Giants. I just... how are the Saints favored?
Adam: Saints. Wow, New Orleans kept pace with the Bills last week until they faded late, but still covered the 15.5. The G-Men are now without Nabers, give me the Saints and a prayer.
Lucas: Giants. I just... how are the Saints favored?
Adam: Saints. Wow, New Orleans kept pace with the Bills last week until they faded late, but still covered the 15.5. The G-Men are now without Nabers, give me the Saints and a prayer.
Joe: Giants.
Dallas Cowboys @ New York Jets (+2.5)
Lucas: Cowboys. I don't want to say we've crapped on Dak in this column, but it's not really a secret he's not super highly regarded by myself or my co-authors. But he looked good on Sunday night, and he gets a really bad Jets team to torch next.
Adam: Jets. Because the Heiferladies cannot seem to put back to back games together.
Lucas: Cowboys. I don't want to say we've crapped on Dak in this column, but it's not really a secret he's not super highly regarded by myself or my co-authors. But he looked good on Sunday night, and he gets a really bad Jets team to torch next.
Adam: Jets. Because the Heiferladies cannot seem to put back to back games together.
Joe: Cowboys.
Denver Broncos @ Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5)
Lucas: Broncos. This is a gutsy pick, but it stems more from Denver playing reasonably well so far and the Eagles only just starting to round into form. Getting four points I think is just enough. I look forward to a rout because I can't have nice things. Speaking of...
Adam: Eagles. Because we cannot have nice things... just kidding. Philly is good, now if they could just figure out what is going on with AJ Brown; my Fantasy team is suffering.
Lucas: Broncos. This is a gutsy pick, but it stems more from Denver playing reasonably well so far and the Eagles only just starting to round into form. Getting four points I think is just enough. I look forward to a rout because I can't have nice things. Speaking of...
Adam: Eagles. Because we cannot have nice things... just kidding. Philly is good, now if they could just figure out what is going on with AJ Brown; my Fantasy team is suffering.
Joe: Eagles.
Miami Dolphins @ Carolina Panthers (-1.5)
Lucas: Dolphins. Get well soon, Tyreek.
Adam: Panthers. Lots of people are going Miami here, but between the Panthers looking serviceable and Miami... not quite as much, I’ll lay the points and hope I am right.
Lucas: Dolphins. Get well soon, Tyreek.
Adam: Panthers. Lots of people are going Miami here, but between the Panthers looking serviceable and Miami... not quite as much, I’ll lay the points and hope I am right.
Joe: Dolphins.
Houston Texans @ Baltimore Ravens (-3.5)
Lucas: Ravens. I continue to be proven right on Baltimore. Fortunately for the Ravens, they get a Texans team that just seems broken at this point.
Adam: Ravens. Mixon's not coming back yet and the Ravens will be looking for blood after their loss last week.
Lucas: Ravens. I continue to be proven right on Baltimore. Fortunately for the Ravens, they get a Texans team that just seems broken at this point.
Adam: Ravens. Mixon's not coming back yet and the Ravens will be looking for blood after their loss last week.
Joe: Ravens.
Sunday, Late Afternoon
Tennessee Titans @ Arizona Cardinals (-7.5)
Lucas: Cardinals. I'm back on the solidarity pick, but the most important Cardinal game is on Saturday. Beat Wheaton.
Lucas: Cardinals. I'm back on the solidarity pick, but the most important Cardinal game is on Saturday. Beat Wheaton.
Joe: Cardinals.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Seattle Seahawks (-3.5)
Lucas: Buccaneers. With how clutch Baker has been, plus the fact that I'm getting a field goal, I'll take it.
Adam: Seahawks. Could go either way here. Tampa has been down for all their games in the last minute yet have managed to win them all except for the blocked field goal by Philly. I just see that ending on the road at a good Seahawks team.
Lucas: Buccaneers. With how clutch Baker has been, plus the fact that I'm getting a field goal, I'll take it.
Adam: Seahawks. Could go either way here. Tampa has been down for all their games in the last minute yet have managed to win them all except for the blocked field goal by Philly. I just see that ending on the road at a good Seahawks team.
Joe: Buccaneers.
Detroit Lions @ Cincinnati Bengals (+10.5)
Lucas: Lions. After the way the Lions shellacked the Browns last week and was one of my bad early slate picks, I'm not falling for that again, especially against a worse defense.
Adam: Lions. LOL. I think even with a line of 15 I would pick Detroit.
Lucas: Lions. After the way the Lions shellacked the Browns last week and was one of my bad early slate picks, I'm not falling for that again, especially against a worse defense.
Adam: Lions. LOL. I think even with a line of 15 I would pick Detroit.
Joe: Lions.
Washington Commanders @ Los Angeles Chargers (-3.5)
Lucas: Chargers. We're not going to have a second consecutive Chargering... right?
Adam: Commanders. Daniels is back. I like him on the road in his return after a short time on the shelf.
Lucas: Chargers. We're not going to have a second consecutive Chargering... right?
Adam: Commanders. Daniels is back. I like him on the road in his return after a short time on the shelf.
Joe: Chargers.
Sunday Night
New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills (-7.5)
Lucas: Bills. Not entirely sure why this one got the Sunday Night billing. Not that there's really any better choices, I guess. Bills by at least two scores.
Adam: Bills. Ehhhhh... the line is right there. The Pats have been solid early on and the Bills showed some possible weakness last week against New Orleans. But Buffalo is the better team here and should cruise to a W. But 7.5...
Lucas: Bills. Not entirely sure why this one got the Sunday Night billing. Not that there's really any better choices, I guess. Bills by at least two scores.
Adam: Bills. Ehhhhh... the line is right there. The Pats have been solid early on and the Bills showed some possible weakness last week against New Orleans. But Buffalo is the better team here and should cruise to a W. But 7.5...
Joe: Bills.
Monday Night
Kansas City Chiefs @ Jacksonville Jaguars (+3.5)
Lucas: Chiefs. I think the Jags are a sleeper wild card contender, but they don't have the horses to keep up with KC.
Adam: Jaguars. Sunshine to Sunshine. Kermit just seems to be up and down this year and even with getting some playmakers back, the Jags have been feeling it this year. I’ll run with that for this week.
Lucas: Chiefs. I think the Jags are a sleeper wild card contender, but they don't have the horses to keep up with KC.
Adam: Jaguars. Sunshine to Sunshine. Kermit just seems to be up and down this year and even with getting some playmakers back, the Jags have been feeling it this year. I’ll run with that for this week.
Joe: Chiefs.
Records So Far
Lucas: 34-30 (6-10 last week)
Adam: 38-26 (7-9 last week)
Joe: 32-32 (6-10 last week)
Geoffrey: 34-30 (8-8 last week)
Jim: 34-30 (7-9 last week)
Tom: 32-32 (7-9 last week)
Lucas: 34-30 (6-10 last week)
Adam: 38-26 (7-9 last week)
Joe: 32-32 (6-10 last week)
Geoffrey: 34-30 (8-8 last week)
Jim: 34-30 (7-9 last week)
Tom: 32-32 (7-9 last week)
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