2020 COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em: Week 17

And so it all comes down to this. One week. 16 games. The coalition is back to round out the 2020 NFL season!

Fortune smiled upon me in Week 16, as I took four of six disputed games from Adam to give myself a two game lead going into the final week. However, I do not lead the group anymore; Geoffrey Clark has taken a three game lead going into the final sprint. Full standings on ESPN (bearing in mind that Adam and I each have one more point than we should) are here, while correct standings and a full breakdown of how we've picked in relation to each other can be found here.

Given that we are down to the final week, combined with the fact that Adam was in town for the holidays this week... it seemed only fitting that we close out the 2020 campaign in podcast form!

From all of us at Confessions of a Sportscaster, have a Happy New Year!

2020 COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em: Week 16

We're getting down to the nitty gritty of the NFL season, and it's crunch time amongst the coalition as well with two weeks to go.

The entire group has come back to around the same level, as just eight games separate first from last place. More important at the top... it has now become very bunched.

It wasn't a great week for me I'd say (I had at least three games I think that I lost by half a point), but it was good enough, as I took five of eight disputed games from Adam to move back into a tie for first place, and Geoffrey is only a game off of the lead. Correct standings, as well as a breakdown of how we've picked in relation to each other, can be found here. 

And despite him having a pretty solid season on the whole on his own merits, Adam finally decided in Week 16, in a tie for the lead, to throw a curveball.

"I had a special guest helping with my picks this week, my son Aiden. He has played in years past, but I forgot to get him set up. Joe and Jim should be happy about that because they would likely be losing to an 11-year-old, *shots fired* haha. Anyway on to my, or should I say, Aiden’s picks. Honestly I agree with most of them, there are a few I would have gone the other way, but I will stick with his picks and make them my own."

And that, dear friends, is how Adam blew an opportunity to break the even year drought (likely jinx). As we set up for what will likely be a photo finish, he and I disagree on six games out of 16.

From all of us at Confessions of a Sportscaster, have a Merry Christmas! Let's get to the picks.

2020 COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em: Week 15

The coalition soldiers on towards the end of the season, and my triumphant high from last week has come crashing down.

It wasn't a historic loss, thankfully... but Adam swept our four disputed games as my two game lead flips to a two game deficit. Though with 48 to play... anything can happen.

The bad news is, a week after Adam got his ESPN numbers righted... Thursday he screwed up again, so now the only correct number is our margin since I screwed up once earlier in the year. You can view those standings, bearing in mind we each have one more point than we should, here. Correct standings, along with how we've picked in relation to each other, can be found here. The big takeaway from looking at that: Adam is great at hero picks.

This week, he and I disagree on eight games out of 16. Let's see if I can flip the script again!

2020 COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em: Week 14

The coalition is back as we enter the fourth quarter of the season and... oh hey, look at those standings!

For the first time since Week 7, I'm back in the group lead after taking four of our five disputed games. Adam had another picking error on ESPN this week... but this time it worked out as he wasn't given a point he should have been given, which means his two mistakes have now evened out and his score there is accurate. I, however, still have one more point on ESPN than I should.

You can view correct standings, in addition to how we've picked in relation to each other, here. There's one again a fairly clear dichotomy in the group, as Adam is right behind me, with Geoffrey Clark in the hunt as well. Joe and Jim would need miracles to catch up at this point.

This week, Adam and I disagree on just four games out of 16. Hopefully we have no postponements that could throw the integrity of this off. Let's get to it!

2020 COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em: Week 13

The coalition is back on its traditional medium this week as we continue our quest to pick NFL games against the spread!

I hope you enjoyed last week's special podcast edition. Adam and I both enjoyed it, and I think it's safe to say we'll plan to bring that format back for future editions. Stay tuned for more details on that.

As for where we stand now, I was correct in that we came pretty close to a split, as I took five of our eight disputed games last week. It should be noted, however, that that margin I won by should probably have an asterisk. Also, Adam was insistent I include the following:

For the record, if you win by 2 or less games, remember the Denver no QB game and the RGIII/Dez Ravens/Pitt game that was played on a Wednesday day. In both cases I absolutely would have picked the other way if I had the information I had at the time we made picks.

I had a feeling that, if we weren't bound by the system we work under, Adam would have gone the other way and we'd have split last week instead (even though he came reasonably close to getting away with it on Wednesday). He still retains the group lead for now, but it's now by the narrowest of margins (bearing in mind that he and I each have one more point there than we should). Correct standings and our picks in relation to each other can be found here.

Following a chaotic week where all 32 teams still played, just all over the place, Adam and I disagree on only five games out of the 15 games spaced pretty far apart. Let's get to it!

2020 COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em: Week 12

We're approaching the Thanksgiving holiday, which in the advertising world that my day job revolves around means accelerated deadlines to get new commercials started on TV and radio. But in the NFL world, that means we get a full holiday of football to go with food and family. And as such, that means the coalition is back to work!

But also because it's a holiday, I teased last week that I had something special planned for the Thanksgiving week of football. Adam's and my schedules lined up on Tuesday, and so we present our special surprise to you: Week 12's picks are on an all new episode of Confessions of a Sportscaster: The Podcast!

As a point of reference for last week since it was touched on, but not gone over in full on the episode, Adam and I split our six disputed games last week, keeping him three games up with six weeks to go. You can view the ESPN standings here, bearing in mind that both Adam and I have one more point than we should. Correct standings, as well as how we've picked in relation to each other, can be found here.

And so, for your listening pleasure: our Week 12 picks!

90's Youth Life Podcast Special: 1990s NCAA Tournament

College basketball, at least at the highest levels, is on the horizon. Whether Division III will end up getting played, and thus my annual, gradual destruction of my vocal cords will commence, is still very much up in the air. And so, since this is normally the time of year I'd be getting started, I needed my college basketball fix. Thankfully, Geoffrey Clark had me covered.

You may remember him as an occasional contributor as part of the COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em contest, but also as the host of 90's Youth Life, on which I have appeared twice before. I was on earlier this year to simulate a 1990's NBA playoff tournament, and two years prior when I ruined an average Major League shortstop for him forever. But recently, he had reached out about wanting to do a college basketball tournament in March Madness style, and I happily agreed.

We had this whole thing set up, where he had 79 teams that I was going to have to pare down to 64, then get into a good old fashioned March Madness bracket, and I had this whole big idea to make it a D-III style bracket... but unfortunately, my simulator only had 25 teams of the 79 available. So, we adjusted, and we made it work.

And this, dear readers, is the result of our work. All simulations are provided by WhatIfSports.com; box scores are provided below.

2020 COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em: Week 11

The coalition returns as we advance to Week 11, and I finally got a little bit of momentum again.

After a few weeks of struggles while Adam went on a heater, he cooled off a bit this week, allowing me to take five of our seven disputed games and close the gap. Despite my strong showing, Adam remains in first place in the group, bearing in mind that on ESPN, he and I both have one more point than we should. You can view correct standings, as well as how we've picked in relation to each other here.

We're coming up on Thanksgiving week, which I'm hoping to do something special for, but for now, Adam and I once again disagree on seven games out of the 14 to be played this week.

2020 COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em: Week 10

As we move to the second half of the NFL season... I really need to get my butt in gear if I want to keep pace with the coalition.

Adam took three of our four disputed games last week to extend his lead as my cold streak continues and he remains atop the leaderboard (factoring in, of course, that he and I both have one more point on ESPN than we should). You can view how we've all picked in relation to each other here.

I debated about pulling an Adam and going opposite week since I need something to go my way. We'll see what happens, as Adam and I disagree on seven games out of 14 this week. I look forward to being down like 11 games going into next week.

2020 COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em: Week 9

We're approaching the halfway point of the NFL season, and the coalition continues its quest to pick NFL games against the spread!

Adam has been on a bit of a heater of late, maybe not on the whole, but he took five of our seven disputed games last week to increase his group lead. Much of that has come on the back of a red hot hero pick streak, including a 3-1 mark last week along. You can view how we've all picked in relation to each other here. This page is especially important, given that our ESPN standings are not correct since both Adam and I each have one more point on there than we should.

This week, Adam and I disagree on just four games out of 14. Come on, moving back into a tie for first!

2020 COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em: Week 8

The coalition returns to action here for Week 8 of the NFL season, and for some of us... we need to get our act in gear.

The good news is, a week after I screwed up on ESPN, Adam did this past week as well by picking the Raiders here, but the Bucs on ESPN, so now he and I both have one more point on ESPN than we should. You can view those standings, bearing that adjustment in mind, here.

Error aside, Adam took four of six disputed games last week, which looking back on it is something of a miracle. And I think all of us can say... at least we aren't Joe, who I'm pretty sure just had the worst week in contest history. You can view how we've picked in relation to each other, with correct standings, here. Groupwise now, Adam has taken a narrow group lead, with Geoffrey and I hot on his tail, and Jim made a nice run this past week with some good hero picks.

This week, Adam and I disagree on seven games out of 14. Let's get to it!

2020 COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em: Week 7

It was kind of a rough week on the whole for the coalition, so we're back at it again in Week 7 to try and right the ship!

It was nice to not have any games have to be postponed this past week, so there's no weird information from last week about a game that wasn't played. But of the games that were, Adam took two of the three disputed games last week to pull back within a game of the lead. You now have to ignore the ESPN standings as for once I'm the one who screwed up; I picked the Patriots in the column, but took the Broncos on ESPN, and by rule, the column is what counts, so I have one more point than I should.

You can view accurate standings, as well as how we've picked in relation to each other, here. This week, Adam and I disagree on six games out of 14. Let's get to it!

2020 COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em: Week 6

A day later than usual, the coalition is back as we continue our quest to pick NFL games against the spread!

It's been a chaotic past couple weeks in the NFL with COVID forcing some postponements of games, which has cut the number of games down a couple, while also giving us some Tuesday Night Football this past week. That chaos also pushed Thursday Night Football back a few days this week, hence why this got posted on a Friday instead of a Thursday.

In amidst last weeks chaos, I took four of six disputed games from Adam to take the group lead outright. It would befit the alternating year pattern Adam and I have established since he joined me, but there's still a ton of games left to play, so I'm not counting my money just yet. You can view how the coalition has picked in relation to each other here.

This week Adam and I disagree on only three games out of the scheduled 14. Let's get to it!

2020 COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em: Week 5

We're just under a quarter of the way through the 2020 NFL season already somehow, and the coalition is back at it as we prepare for Week 5!

The standings remain relatively tight through four weeks, though there is enough separation between the top and the rest. Though now, the lead saw a bit of a change as, after taking three of five disputed games from Adam last week, I've moved back into a tie with him for first place. Great Reversal indeed.

You can view how we've all picked in relation to each other here. We're doing better on a consensus basis than we have in years past, and hero picks have been all right to date on the whole. I have the most correct, and only one less than the rest of the group combined, while Adam has the second-best rate on hero picks in the group with the second-biggest sample size.

This week, pending his picks passing their COVID test (which he said they tested positive for being awesome), Adam and I disagree on six games out of 15. Let's get to it!

Introducing Confessions of a Sportscaster: The Podcast

Confessions of a Sportscaster has been relatively quiet for much of 2020. What with the pandemic, adjusting to working from home while trying to keep two young kids entertained and content, and the lack of sports for several months, there wasn't a lot to write about or a lot of time to do said writing even when sports started to return.

But with things continuing to change and evolve in our world, I think it's time Confessions of a Sportscaster starts to evolve with it. And what better way than for someone who worked at a college radio station for four years, interned for a couple commercial stations in Chicago during that same time, and also spent some time as a part time producer at a commercial station once out of college, than for me to get back into the audio game?

Introducing Confessions of a Sportscaster: The Podcast.

Future episodes to come.

2019 Death to the BCS Playoffs: Fast Forward

We're starting to see something of a return to normalcy now. The Stanley Cup Final is complete, the NBA Finals are underway, the MLB Playoffs are about to begin... and football is more or less in full swing. The NFL has gone on with minimal hitches, and the FBS is starting to get back to normal as some conferences are already playing and others are coming back soon.

This would normally be where I'd be announcing the 2020 Death to the BCS Playoffs. Problem is, given the way the schedules are set up, with different conferences starting later, I don't think it's a fair year or a good year to do the Death to the BCS Playoffs. Fortunately, I still have the 2019 bracket to go through!

I built this bracket out way back in December, when the word "pandemic" wasn't on anyone's mind, North Central was coming off a huge upset of Mount Union en route to a national title, and I was in the midst of a long basketball layoff. Teams were not in on my simulator in time to do the playoff in real time like I had for the first few years, but now that they are, and we're in full swing of football, it's time to attack this again.

You can view the official bracket, which will include final scores when we're done, here. All simulations are provided by WhatIfSports.com. Let's play some football!

2020 COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em: Week 4

The coalition marches on as we approach Week 4 of the NFL season!

We ended up regressing to the mean a little bit in Week 3; after hitting on eight of our first ten consensus picks, we went just 2-3 on those games last week. You can view how we've all picked in relation to each other here.

On a micro level, I took three of five disputed games from Adam last week to narrow the deficit to a single game in the standings. We're also starting to see a little bit of a split between the top and the bottom of the standings. Whether this is a part of what Adam has deemed The Great Reversal or not remains to be seen.

Once again this week Adam and I disagree on five games out of 15. Let's get to it!

2020 COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em: Week 3

The coalition returns as we prepare for Week 3 of the NFL season!

We got joined by another random person, so the group now has seven people in it, though they are not counted among the standings here for the purposes of the contest. You can view how the original five of us have picked in relation to each other here.

As for where we're at, Adam and I split our six disputed games last week, keeping him with a two game lead on me for the column. Most of the group has done really well, thanks in large part to us getting off to an outstanding start on consensus picks. I've gone hero a group-high seven times, having won three of them, which is partially why I'm falling out of it, but the rate is the best in the group so far.

As we move on to Week 3, Adam and I disagree on just five games. Let's get to it!

2020 COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em: Week 2

Week 1 is in the books, and with Week 2 on the horizon, the coalition returns to work!

It was a good first week of action on the whole for most of us. Our group was even joined by some random person Sunday afternoon who's now in first place, but since they're a random person they don't count.

Among the coalition, hero picks were plentiful; nine of the 16 games last week had someone go hero, five of those nine were mine. I only got two of them, part of why Adam took six of our ten disputed games for an early lead. You can view how we've picked in relation to each other here, again taking into account that the random person who joined our group is not counted as part of this.

Hopefully the rust of both picking games as well as column writing gets shaken off this week, as Adam and I disagree on only six games out of 16. Let's get to it!

2020 COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em: Week 1

Damn, it feels good to write this again.

I've done a number of series on here, but this one has been and probably always will be my favorite. I remember always reading and enjoying Bill Simmons' old weekly NFL picks columns, and that inspired me to start a picking contest for this back in 2012 when COAS was in its infancy. My friend Adam Quinn joined the contest in 2013, and became the weekly co-contributor in 2014. In the six seasons since, we've split wins with me taking all the even years and Adam all the odd years. That means, if the pattern holds, I'll get my crown back this season. But, ya know... 2020.

We have much of our crew back for a followup 2020 run. My brother-in-law Joe returns for another go, as does my old WONC friend, Bulls blogger, and 90's Youth Life podcast host Geoffrey Clark. Finally, back for his second year of this is Joe's uncle Jim. The five of us will make our picks every week, but typically only Adam and I will write unless I need someone to fill in for him.

As in years past, I will be tracking how we pick in relation to each other, with Adam's and my picks on here being the official ones and hopefully lining up with what gets picked on ESPN. You can follow the group (and I think up until kickoff tonight, join through this link) here. In our first round of the 2020 season, Adam and I disagree on a whopping 10 games out of 16.

And so dear friends... once more unto the breach.

2020 NFL Preview

 

Fear not, Confessions of a Sportscaster is back from hiatus!

The COVID-19 pandemic threw a huge monkey wrench into the world of sports that... I'm still not totally over. I kind of feel bad that I haven't written anything since feeling compelled to address a race issue on North Central's campus, but for a long time there wasn't anything to watch except for old sporting events. Then the NBA and NHL set up some bubbles and got started, which I took in some of.

But now the NFL season is upon us, and by some miracle (and largely timing of everything) the season appears to be going on as planned, with the only difference being a ton of empty stadiums for the time being.

So it's time to get back into the swing of things. With the college football season largely in shambles even though some FBS conferences are playing on as if nothing is happening, this means we won't see a 2020 Death to the BCS Playoffs, though I still have to simulate through the 2019 iteration. I have ideas for a pseudo-Tournament of Champions for the Death to the BCS Playoffs of the past that, time permitting, I may try to undertake. But more importantly... the COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em contest is back for its ninth season as I try to maintain even year magic and retake my crown from Adam.

So with that in mind, I need to power through some NFL previews. Last year I condensed the eight posts, one for each division, down to two. This year I'm cutting it down to one and cutting back because I haven't paid a ton of attention to preseason training camps, and without preseason games or anything, it's hard to get a read on some things. But even so, I'm willing to put my neck out there and make predictions that almost certainly will go wrong.

When "We Are NC" Goes Wrong

I try to avoid most of the political, controversial stuff here on Confessions of a Sportscaster. But this transcends politics and, while controversial, is something I feel like needs to be said.

I've touched on the anthem protests once before, and I've written some criticisms about a rival institution. The latter one raised an important point for me: you can't bring up the speck in your brother's eye without first removing the plank from your own eye. So today, I attempt to remove said plank.

And to do so, I need to refer back to the former post above. What I neglected to bring up back in May of 2018 was the plight of Mynk Richardson-Clerk. Richardson-Clerk is a 2020 graduate of North Central College and, in 2017 and 2018, a member of North Central's women's lacrosse team. So why, if she was a 2020 graduate, did she forgo those last two years of eligibility? Was it a loss of passion for the sport? Lack of playing time, or replacement by other players? According to Richardson-Clerk, it was a pattern of despicable behavior by teammates, coaches, and administration.

90's Youth Life Podcast Special: NBA 1990's Championship

With sports as we know them completely on pause, the state of Illinois under a shelter in place order, and my sanity starting to go, I need something to get me through The Quarantine of 2020. Fortunately, Geoffy is a lifesaver.

You may remember Geoffy from his occasional appearances on Confessions of a Sportscaster. You may remember him more as the host of 90's Youth Life, a podcast about all things 1990's. In particular, you may remember when these two worlds collided in the summer of 2018, when I ruined an average Major League shortstop for him forever as we simulated out the 1994 MLB postseason that never was.

So it was hard to say no when Geoffrey pitched another episode idea to me as we go back to our formative decade, this one arguably more up my alley, and definitely up his. We grew up in the era of the Jordan Bulls Dynasty, and Geoffrey had the idea of doing an all-90's postseason. I had originally wondered specifically about all the champions of that decade, but Geoffy thought bigger, and I ultimately have to say, better.

He pitched to me a standard playoff field of 16 teams (eight from each conference), limiting each conference to one representative from each franchise, which makes sense because otherwise the Bulls will cannibalize themselves. He constructed the bracket and went back to the old best-of-five first round model, with best-of-sevens the rest of the way, including the old 2-3-2 format of The Finals. And with his part done, I went into the lab, did the work, and found the All 90's Champion.

After the jump I will post all the box scores from every game along with some details. As always, all simulations are provided by WhatIfSports.com. And now, for your listening pleasure... my second 90's Youth Life appearance.

2020 NCC Men's Basketball Recap

It's Friday, and I'm supposed to be getting ready for a Sweet 16 game. Instead... "as the darkness takes me, I am nothing."

Late Saturday night into early Sunday, we got confirmation that North Central was slated to host Washington University Friday night in the third round of the NCAA Tournament. It gave me one final game for the year; one last chance to see this senior class on a quest for a national title. But with all the coronavirus talk, things were in flux.

We saw it even last weekend, as Johns Hopkins and Amherst hosted pods in men's and women's basketball, respectively, closed to fans, with only essential personnel and media allowed entrance to the respective gyms. The ban did not apply to North Central thankfully, so over a thousand people were able to see the comeback on Saturday.

Wednesday, the NCAA made an announcement recommending that games take place with limited crowds. At that point I began furiously refreshing my email, waiting for word from North Central. I wasn't sure necessarily if my presence would be needed at the table on Friday night. Ultimately, word came down on Thursday morning that North Central would abide by those guidelines and only play in front of immediate family. But this decision came in the wake of the Patient Zero heard around the world in Utah Jazz player Rudy Gobert testing positive for the virus. In the wake of that, professional sports leagues the world over began suspending operations. And ultimately, Thursday afternoon, word came back from the NCAA that all remaining championships this season have been cancelled, which meant that Friday's game against WashU would no longer take place.

The Bears were inside Gregory Arena practicing for the upcoming game when the announcement came down, and North Central players found out pretty quickly after this. And so, North Central's season comes to an end, with a 23-5 record and a Sweet Sixteen berth to show for their efforts.

So how did we get here? Let's look back on a memorable campaign.

Game Notes: (MBK) University of Wisconsin-Oshkosh @ North Central College (3/7/20)

Final Score
NCC 84, UW-Oshkosh 82 (OT)

Game Summary
In an outstanding game worthy of being played in a later round, the Cardinals (23-5) scored the game's first basket and held some early leads in a back and forth affair, settling for their biggest advantage at 18-15 about nine minutes in. But the Titans (20-9) seemingly grabbed firm control over the next five minutes with a 15-0 run. They would lead by as many as 15 at 40-25 with 3:52 to go, but the Cardinals fought back, getting within seven, but no closer as the Titans took a 46-35 lead into the locker room. A strong early start to the second half for the Cardinals cut it back to seven, but the Titans kept getting clutch baskets and pushed the lead back as high as 13 as late as 10:43 to play. But then the Cardinals made their move, using a 10-0 run to make it a one possession game, but a Class B technical for a flop helped the Titans push it back to six moments later. Still, they couldn't put the Cardinals away, and North Central finally tied it up at 67-all with just under three minutes to play, and a minute later the Cardinals got their first lead since the first half with a huge three. Back to back Titan layups gave them a one point lead with just under a minute to go, but the Cardinals answered from distance again to go up two with 15 seconds left. Oshkosh would get a putback with just two seconds left to tie it. A last second deep three was blocked, forcing overtime. The Cardinals more or less controlled the extra session, building their biggest lead at 82-77 with just under two minutes to go. But the Titans fought back, tying the game with 43 seconds left and seemingly giving themselves the advantage. But the Cardinals got an offensive rebound on their go-ahead attempt with under 20 seconds to go, giving them a second chance with the shot clock off, and after a timeout, drew up the perfect play for a beautiful back door cut for the go-ahead layup with 3.2 to play. Oshkosh's inbounds pass was not cleanly handled, and the Cardinals escaped to the Sweet Sixteen.

Key Players

• Blaise Meredith (NCC): 8-20 FG (3-7 3PT), 4-6 FT; 23 pts, 4 reb, 6 ast, 1 blk, 2 stl. On a night where Connor Raridon and Matt Cappelletti were limited by foul trouble, someone needed to take over for the Cardinals... and Blaise stepped up big time. He had 10 in the first half, came up with 11 big ones, including two as part of the 10-0 run, and he hit the three that gave the Cardinals their first lead of the second half. He also scored the first points of the extra session to keep the Cardinals' momentum going. All in all, maybe his best game of the year.
• Mike Pollack (NCC): 6-8 FG (5-6 3PT); 17 pts, 4 reb (2 off). After a quiet first round game against Adrian, the Cardinals needed somebody else to step up on the offensive end... and Pollack, who in three years has built an illustrious history of big shots, came through. He hit two threes as part of the 10-0 run to get the Cardinals back into it, hit a third after the Class B technical, and added a fourth to cut the deficit to two with about four and a half to play. But he saved the best for overtime: his three after an Oshkosh offensive foul gave the Cardinals that five point lead, and on the final play of the game, he cut back door of a good Matt Cappelletti screen, and had a wide open layup that won the game for the Cardinals. Big Shot Mike strikes again.
  

  Video credit to my dad of Mike Pollack’s game winner for @NCCMBB. Great cut, and a nice screen by Matt Cappelletti to spring him free. #WeAreNC #d3hoops pic.twitter.com/Dc1PvCz3KN

  — Lucas Mitzel🎙 (@northsider89) March 8, 2020

• Jack Flynn (UWO): 10-20 FG, 3-3 FT; 23 pts, 10 reb (6 off), 2 ast, 2 blk. After serving as a dominant force down low on Friday in their win over Transylvania, Flynn looked like the key to the Titans making it back to the Sweet 16. Especially as the game went on, Oshkosh repeatedly fed Flynn down on the left block, with Will Clausel being tasked with slowing him down. Flynn got his... but he had to work hard for it, though his rebounding was a big reason why the Titans were able to build that lead in the first place.

Key Stats

• NCC: 12-24 3PT (50.0%). That's an absurd number. The Cardinals shot fairly well from deep in the first half (5-12, 41.7%), but went bonkers in the second half (6-10, 60.0%) and split their pair in the extra session. When you're hot... good things tend to happen.
• UWO: Outscored NCC in the paint 52-32. When you have an edge on the glass (41-36 Oshkosh) and outscore your opponent by 20... you're going to win a ton of ballgames. Flynn was a monster, but Levi Borchert hit a few big shots through fouls, and guys like Adam Fravert were able to get to the bucket as well. It just wasn't quite enough tonight.

NCAA Tournament Scoreboard Watch

• CCIW Teams
• Elmhurst 84 (25-5), Grove City 66 (21-9)
• Elmhurst retains possession of The Belt^TM
• Nebraska Wesleyan Pod- Sweet 16 Opponent
• Washington University 79 (22-5), Nebraska Wesleyan 58 (25-4)

Final Thoughts

I'm still absolutely wired two hours after witnessing the end of this. It was pretty hard to stay neutral as per NCAA rules... but I did. They can't stop me from fighting back tears as this one came down to the wire, though.

I was nervous driving to the game, and wasn't feeling great at halftime. But I talked myself into hoping, and this team rewarded me by refusing to give up, clawing their way back, and not getting down when the Titans made plays to try and hang on in this one. I was more worried when Connor Raridon picked up his fifth foul fairly early in overtime that that would be his final college basketball moment. But he said after the game, "We found a way," and that his teammates picked him up... and pick him up they absolutely did. It was a joyous atmosphere at Gregory Arena after the final buzzer, with some of the student section (who did make it back from Spring Break to catch this one) coming out on the floor to celebrate. I took a ton of pictures of the guys cutting down the nets, with every player on the roster (JV included) getting in on the action, and the coaches getting to cut it down at the other end of the floor. Tommy Koth did most of the work getting the second one down... but was super gracious in the aftermath.

I got mine. #WeAreNC #d3hoops pic.twitter.com/4vTDgflIWo

— Lucas Mitzel🎙 (@northsider89) March 8, 2020

As noted above, WashU clobbered Nebraska Wesleyan to also advance to the Sweet 16. That result, given the Central region rankings, means that, barring some shenanigans on the part of the NCAA, North Central will get to stay in Naperville next weekend as the Bears make the trip up from St. Louis. It will be only the one game next weekend, with four games of the round played Friday and four more on Saturday, the NCC-WashU game included. Confirmation of the host site, along with a start time, will probably come early in the week.

I'm thrilled to get one more. And given that the Cardinals came back from down 15 against the defending national champions... anything can happen, right? A win next weekend sends the Cardinals to Fort Wayne, usually the site of the Final Four and championship, but this year the site for the Elite Eight and Final Four, as the title game will take place in Atlanta alongside the D-I and D-II title games. I don't want to say book your tickets yet... but at least keep your calendars clear.

Game Notes: (MBK) Adrian College @ North Central College (3/6/20)

Final Score
NCC 69, Adrian 54

Game Summary
This seemed like a troublesome start as the Cardinals (22-5) missed a wide open layup on the game's opening possession, but played good enough defense to grab the opening bucket about two minutes in and getting out to a 9-2 lead. But the Bulldogs (17-12) hung around for a bit, keeping the margin in the four to six point range. But the Cardinals finally did start to hit some threes and found themselves up double digits about 14 minutes in, and led by as many as 13 before taking a 37-26 advantage into the locker room. The Bulldogs still hung tough in the second half, getting to the line and hitting a few early threes to trim the deficit back to seven at 41-34. But then the Cardinal offense got going, with a few threes to pull the lead back out to 19 at the eight minute media timeout. Adrian showed heart though, refusing to go quietly, but got no closer than 11 the rest of the way as the Cardinals comfortably came out on top.

Key Players

• Matt Cappelletti (NCC): 5-10 FG (1-3 3PT), 1-2 FT; 12 pts, 20 reb (3 off). No, that's not a typo. Cap was able to get his share of layups in this one, but did a ton of damage on the glass. His 20 rebounds is tied for the eighth most in a game in program history, and he's the first Cardinal to get at least 20 since Michael Patterson did it against North Park back in February of 1989.
• Connor Raridon (NCC): 5-10 FG, 6-11 FT; 16 pts, 7 reb (2 off), 6 ast, 1 stl. This is a fairly typical Connor line. He got his teammates involved, did well on the boards, and ended up helping shoulder the load offensively. He struggled a bit in the paint, with a bunch of his makes coming from midrange. The free throw thing is a little alarming, because he's been so good all year. Hopefully just a one game blip.
• Will Clausel (NCC): 6-7 FG (2-2 3PT), 1-2 FT; 15 pts, 4 reb (2 off), 2 ast, 1 blk. Will has had some empty offensive games this year, but he really stepped up in this one. He took advantage of some nice feeds from Raridon, as well as doing a good job against Adrian's bigs to really have a good game. He's North Central's X-factor, and when he's on, the Cardinals are very tough to beat.

Key Stats

• NCC: 17-27 FT (63.0%). This number on the whole is alarming, especially considering half the misses came from your best free throw shooter in Connor Raridon. The first half was fine (12-16), before a 5-11 second half really raised some eyebrows. You can get away with that against Adrian... you can't in the second round.
• ADR: 17-54 FG (31.5%), 4-20 3PT (20.0%). In the preview for this weekend, I highlighted two guys: Jordan Harris and Jeremy Kalonji. They came into the weekend averaging a combined 42 points on really good shooting numbers. They combined to go 10-35 from the field tonight and managed just 35 points. A lot of that is a credit to North Central's defense, which has been outstanding all year, but Adrian missed some good looks too. You have to take advantage against a good team, and they couldn't.

Other NCC-Hosted First Round Game

UW-Oshkosh 74, Transylvania 58

This one wasn't really in doubt. The Pioneers (19-9) managed to hang tough early, even taking some brief leads thanks to some good dribble penetration, but couldn't hit their outside shots, while the Titans (20-8) did. They slowly began to pull away as the first half went on en route to a 40-29 lead at intermission. An early second half three cut the lead to eight, but the Titans went on a 15-2 run to put the game out of reach. Jack Flynn put up 29 points and nine rebounds to pace Oshkosh, Adam Fravert added 12 and 15, and Will Mahoney scored 10 off the bench for the Titans. Zach Larimore came off the pine to lead the Pioneers with 13 points, while Gabe Schmitt added 12.

NCAA Tournament Scoreboard Watch

• CCIW Teams
• Elmhurst 97 (23-5), Lycoming 73 (20-9)
• Elmhurst retains possession of The Belt^TM
• Nebraska Wesleyan Pod- Would be Sweet 16 opponent
• Washington University 102 (21-5), Bethany Lutheran 68 (21-7)
• Nebraska Wesleyan 77 (25-3), Webster 73 (19-9)

Final Thoughts

Tonight was Adrian's first NCAA Tournament game, and I'd say they acquitted themselves well. They never got super down on themselves and played their hearts out. The Cardinals were just the better team, and made sure of it down the stretch by making the plays they needed to to come away with a good, solid win. The free throws remain a concern, but they've shot well from the line much of the year.

Saturday night brings up another game that should be a second weekend matchup as the Cardinals get another crack at the defending champions. The Cardinals didn't shoot particularly well in that game, something that I think can definitely change this time around. Both teams have slightly different rotations than they did the first time around, so it'll be interesting to see how it plays out. It should be one of the better games in D-III on the day though. Hopefully North Central can finally make it back out of the first weekend for the first time since 2013!

Dance Party at Chippy's House

I said I would "probably" do a writeup of the CCIW title game... that didn't happen. But in case you missed it, Elmhurst knocked off Illinois Wesleyan to get the CCIW's automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament.

This year's tournament will be a little different; kind of a blend between the normal tournament and the one in 2013. That year, the Cardinals made it to Salem, but got to play twice there with the Elite Eight and Final Four being played there before going onto Atlanta, where all three divisions played for their respective national titles on the same weekend. We have a similar situation this year, with the Elite Eight and Final Four being played in Fort Wayne, Indiana (where the Final Four and title game were hosted last year) before again going on to Atlanta. But instead of one game a week for three weeks, we're keeping the usual first and second round pods, then staggering the eight third round games between Friday and Saturday next weekend.

With North Central's loss, they were waiting with bated breath for their tournament fate... and that may be a little dramatic, because most of the experts had the Cardinals fairly safely into the field of 64. As far as I can tell, they were in fact safely in. But I think just about everyone within the program was shocked at this announcement around noon today.

Game Notes: (MBK) Elmhurst College @ North Central College (2/28/20)

Final Score
Elmhurst 71, NCC 60

Game Summary
This game started out in a similar fashion to the last one between these two teams, as the Cardinals (21-5) were able to trade some early leads with the Blue Jays (22-5), but there was no dry spell for Elmhurst on this night. North Central reached its high water mark about halfway through the first half with an 18-12 advantage and again a few minutes later at 25-19. But then the Jays went on an 8-0 run sparked by back to back threes. They couldn't take full advantage, and the Cardinals battled back to take a 32-31 lead into the locker room. Elmhurst looked fresher and more ready to open the second half, scoring the first five points to take the lead back, but the Cardinals kept it close thanks in part to both teams shooting themselves in the foot a little bit. After each team received a flop warning earlier in the game, North Central drew a technical foul for a flop about five minutes in, allowing the Blue Jays to go up four instead of three. Elmhurst let the Cardinals back in with a Class A technical foul (two shots), and drew a Class B for a flop of their own a few minutes later, the latter of which pulled the Cardinals back within one. But the Jays hit a three the next time down, then after trading layups, an end of bench Cardinal drew a Class A technical, giving the Jays a four point possession to help spark what turned into a 13-0 run to extend their lead to 15. The Cardinals got no closer than seven the rest of the way, as the Jays advance to tomorrow's CCIW title game with The Belt^TM in their possession for the first time this year.

Key Players

• Jake Rhode (ELM): 7-16 FG (4-8 3PT), 7-7 FT; 25 pts, 7 reb, 2 ast. Three weeks after struggling in this same building, Rhode came out guns blazing, hitting an early three, but he only had eight at halftime. He came alive after the break though, scoring 17, including a couple more threes and a perfect 5-5 mark from the free throw line.
• Derek Dotlich (ELM): 5-11 FG (2-6 3PT), 3-3 FT: 15 pts, 2 reb (1 off), 2 ast, 3 stl. Dotlich's first game here was even worse (0-6, including 0-4 from deep if I remember right). But he got an early fast break layup to break out, and hit a couple big threes, one in each half. The three steals were a team high; Lavon Thomas had the other two for the Jays.
• Connor Raridon (NCC): 6-18 FG (1-4 3PT), 5-5 FT; 18 pts, 10 reb (2 off), 6 ast, 1 blk. On a night where pretty much everybody struggled, Connor did all he could to will his team onto the finals. But even his best effort wasn't enough, as the Jays did a pretty good job forcing him into tough shots, and he missed at least one point blank layup that could have turned the tide.

Key Stats

• NCC: 22-60 FG (36.7%), 7-25 3PT (28.0%). That's not going to get it done. Elmhurst played good defense, but like I just touched on, the Cardinals missed, that I can clearly remember, three point blank clean layups in just the second half. It wouldn't have been enough to fully turn the tide, but hitting those maybe stops the bleeding and gives you energy to get a stop. I don't know. The threes not falling tonight either didn't really help.
• ELM: Outrebounded NCC 41-38. Each team had 31 defensive rebounds... meaning the Jays got three additional second chance opportunities, scoring eight second chance points to North Central's four. Combine that with the three missed layups by the Cardinals mentioned above... that's 10 of your 11 points that made the difference. I feel like saying that though does a disservice to the Blue Jays, because the stat line kind of bears out what the eye test tells you. The Jays had more energy and played like it, especially in the second half.

CCIW Semifinal Watch

(3) IWU 74, (2) AUG 70

This was a great one to open the evening. The Vikings (18-8) seemed to be in control for most of it, and actually held the lead for over 36 minutes of game time, and were up by as many as seven in the first half, but the Titans (19-8) came back to tie a couple times before going into the break down 34-31. The Vikings again tried to pull away in the second half, but couldn't get farther than six up, and the Titans managed to come back late to tie a couple times again before taking the lead for good with 1:36 left. Peter Lambesis was ridiculous, putting up a game-high 28 points, Cory Noe added 17, Matt Leritz finished with 11, and Alex O'Neill only had six points but played some great defense to lead the Titans to the upset win. Austin Elledge and Micah Martin each had 19 points to pace the Vikings, while Pierson Wofford chipped in 15.

Bonus Grey Giovanine Jacket Watch
I was really on watch for this in a neutral game. It was Grey Giovanine's second trip to Naperville this season, so it was the second time of getting to look for it. Ultimately, he was chill with regards to the jacket even as he was laying into some of his players, before finally removing it with 4:05 to go in the first half.

Women's CCIW Tournament Watch

• (1) WHE 76 (20-6), (6) NCC 44 (12-15)
• (2) IWU 76 (18-8), (5) AUG 75 (14-13) (OT)

Final Thoughts

I want to get this out of the way first: I felt like I announced a road game tonight. The Blue Jays brought a ton of students to this one, and they were into the game pretty much the whole way, but especially in the second half. I really think their team then fed off that, especially during that key 13-0 run that put the game on ice. I'm not thrilled that North Central couldn't muster a student section in response... but what can you do.

With that out of the way, let me tip my hat to the Blue Jays. After a heartbreaking loss to the Cardinals at Elmhurst back in December, then a rough trip to Naperville three weeks ago, they were clearly up for this one, and definitely outplayed the hosts tonight. They earned their way to the title game, where they are going up against a never-say-die Illinois Wesleyan team for the CCIW's automatic bid. The Blue Jays should be in the NCAA Tournament already; this would be a formality for them. The Titans almost definitely need to win tomorrow night to get in.

As for the Cardinals, I think they're pretty safe. They entered the weekend ranked fourth in the Central, and while they may drop in the final set, they've set themselves up nicely the past few weeks to still have the resume to make it as an at large. They should be far enough away from the bubble that they won't have a ton of drama on Selection Monday. But the loss today, in addition to passing on The Belt^TM to their vanquishers, it also likely ends any chances of NCAA Tournament games in Naperville.

I'll probably do a writeup on the CCIW title game tomorrow or Sunday (maybe Monday, depending) since I'll still be working that game. Monday, once the bracket is out, I'll have a look at what the Cardinals are looking at for a tournament matchup, assuming they do in fact make it.

North Central and the NCAA Regional Rankings: Week 3 Edition

Happy Championship Week! Conference tournaments are underway across the D-III landscape, and with tournament fates hanging in the balance... let's take one final look at the regional rankings.

With the NCAA Tournament field getting revealed on Monday, this set of rankings is arguably the most important. Last week's introduced the results against regionally ranked opponents criteria, and any team ranked this week will, for the purpose of that metric, remain regionally ranked even if they don't appear in the final set.

With word in from the regional advisory committees, let's have a look.

2020 CCIW Men's Basketball Tournament Preview

The women's tournament preview is in the books. Let's move onto the men.

This is one I'm more able to write about, as I didn't get to see a ton of women's games this season (though I still tried to follow as best I could). For the men though, I saw every home game and chunks of many road games, and this is maybe the most excited I've been for a conference tournament in a long time.

Of course, there's a reason for that as we go into the second year with the six team format. As with the women, the top two teams get byes to the weekend, while the higher seeds host the play in games on Tuesday.

2020 CCIW Women's Basketball Tournament Preview

I'm trying to get these out a little earlier this year. For one thing, North Central is playing Tuesday, so I need to preview that. For another... the fact that this is now a six team tournament means I want to get with the program a little quicker.

This is actually the second year that the CCIW has used the expanded tournament; in prior years this was a four-team affair, but the six team group gives more teams a chance not only for an automatic bid, but also to bolster their resumes for at large selection into the NCAA Tournament.

So below I'm going to preview the entire CCIW Tournament field. I'm only putting the weekend site on here; the weekend part of the tournament hasn't changed in that the conference champion hosts the semifinals and finals, but the past couple years the Tuesday play-in games have had higher seeds host.

One More to Go: A CCIW Update

The regular season concludes tomorrow for the CCIW... which means we have to look at how the CCIW Tournament races are shaping up.

This is an annual feature for me where I look at all the different clinching scenarios. Earlier this week I had thought about trying to crunch numbers with two games to go for odds of each team getting certain tournament seeds. The math proved to be a little too much for me, but I will include the numbers here now that there's just one game to go and the math becomes much more simple.

As usual, a lot of the tournament spots have been claimed already, but seeding is all still well up for grabs. I consider it the advantage in Year Two of having a six team tournament instead of only four. Let's have a look.

Game Notes: (MBK) Carthage College @ North Central College (2/19/20)

Final Score
NCC 70, Carthage 69

Game Summary
After surrendering a basket on the opening possession, the Belt^TM-wielding Cardinals (20-4, 13-2) scored the next eight, including two threes in four seconds thanks to a dumb turnover. But the Red Men (15-9, 7-8) got right back into it and turned this into a back and forth affair. Carthage would lead by as many as five before taking a 35-33 advantage with a minute to go in the half, and carried that into intermission. After trading a couple baskets to open the second half, the Red Men began to assert control, scoring six straight to open up a 45-37 advantage and forcing a Cardinal timeout. North Central tried to cut into the deficit, but Carthage pushed it as high as 11, going up 55-44 with about nine and a half to play. An 8-0 Cardinal run made it a game again, but Carthage scored seven of the next nine to push the lead back to eight. Seemingly, the Red Men had an answer for every late Cardinal push, as they led by six with just 25 seconds to play. But a three pointer cut the deficit in half with 14 seconds to go, the Red Men split a pair of free throws with 11 ticks left, then committed a foul on another three with just 4.3 seconds left. The Cardinals hit all three to pull within one, intentionally fouled with 3.7 left, and Carthage missed the front end of the one-and-one, allowing the Cardinals to call timeout with three ticks left. Out of the timeout, a baseball pass across halfcourt was intercepted by two Carthage guys, but a travel with 1.6 left gave the Cardinals new life. They opted for a lob play... but drew a foul with 0.9 left, and hit both free throws to steal victory from the jaws of defeat, successfully defend The Belt^TM, and clinch the outright CCIW title.

Key Players

• Aiden Chang (NCC): 4-5 FG (3-4 3PT), 5-5 FT; 16 pts, 2 reb (1 off), 3 ast. As far as offense is concerned, Aiden is a complementary piece, but he really stepped up last night, especially late. He scored 14 of his 16 in the second half, and saved some heroics for the very end. He hit the three with 14 seconds left to make it a 68-65 game, then was fouled on the three attempt with 4.3 seconds left, calmly draining all three to make it a one point game and set up that ridiculous ending.
• Matt Cappelletti (NCC): 5-11 FG (1-4 3PT), 3-4 FT; 14 pts, 8 reb (2 off), 2 ast. It wasn't necessarily the greatest shooting night for Cap, who seemingly adjusted his shooting stroke for a much higher arcing shot. He was able to help keep the Cardinals in the game though with decent rebounding and hit some key baskets, but none bigger than on North Central's final possession. After his baseball pass was picked off and the Carthage travel gave them another chance, the Cardinals dialed up a lob to Cap, who caught it on the far elbow and tried to turn and go up with it... but was bumped, putting the Cardinals into the double bonus. Cap proceeded to calmly hit both free throws to turn a one point deficit into a one point lead, winning the game.
• Fillip Bulatovic (CAR): 7-12 FG (1-4 3PT), 0-2 FT; 15 pts, 5 reb, 1 ast, 1 stl. I found myself cursing Bulatovic as the game was winding down. Coming off the bench, he had seven in the first half, including his lone three, while all four of his field goals in the second half came at clutch moments in the final seven minutes. His last two especially seemed like daggers; he found himself open under the hoop and converted to push the Red Men lead to six on both. But at the end, he ended up wearing goat horns, committing the foul on Cappelletti (his fifth of the game) to put him at the line for the game-winning free throws.

Key Stats

• NCC: 14-17 FT (82.4%). North Central shot pretty well for the game (47.1% from the field, 34.8% from deep), but weren't on track at the line early, missing both of their first half attempts. But they were money in the second half. Connor Raridon went a perfect six-for-six, Aiden Chang hit all five of his, including the three crucial ones with 4.3 seconds left, and despite having the one miss earlier in the second half, Cap had ice in his veins as he hit the two that stole the game with 0.9 to play.
• CAR: 16 second chance points. The Red Men have a bunch of freaking giants; 6'11 centers Sean Johnson and Brad Perry combined for 11 rebounds in this one, including five on the offensive glass. Carthage had an 11-2 advantage in second chance points at the intermission, and as time was winding down I knew I was going to highlight this as a key stat. But for the game, Carthage only outrebounded the Cardinals by one (despite having 11 total offensive boards), and their 11 point advantage on second chance opportunities went to waste.

CCIW Scoreboard Watch

• IWU 94 (16-8, 10-5), @ NPU 92 (4-20, 2-13) (OT)
• @ ELM 62 (20-5, 11-5), CRL 59 (11-13, 4-11)
• Elmhurst clinches a home game in the CCIW Quarterfinals
• @ WHE 68 (15-9, 9-6), MIL 53 (4-20, 1-14)
• BYE- AUG (17-7, 11-4)
• WBK: @ IWU 90 (16-8, 10-5), NCC 63 (11-13, 7-8)
• Illinois Wesleyan clinches a home game in the CCIW Quarterfinals
• WBK: ELM 75 (10-15, 5-11), @ CAR 73 (11-13, 6-9)
• WBK: @ MIL 82 (16-8, 9-6), NPU 68 (17-7, 10-5)
• Millikin clinches a home game in the CCIW Quarterfinals
• WBK: WHE 71 (18-6, 11-4), @ CRL 54 (8-16, 3-12)
• Wheaton clinches hosting the CCIW Tournament
• WBK: Bye- AUG (12-12, 7-8)

Final Thoughts

I mentioned last year that North Central's win over then-#1 Augustana was the biggest win I've ever seen in person. I think that title is safe, but in terms of the drama... this one is probably going to be pretty high on the list. We called this The Miracle on Brainard Street in the immediate aftermath of the game last night, because, let's be honest: North Central had no business winning this game. Down six with 25 seconds to go, and down four with four seconds to go, your win expectancy has to be less than one percent. But the Cardinals got the breaks they needed and took advantage of them to steal a huge win. The only CCIW prize they were playing for was the outright title, which I'm glad we got to celebrate in front of a home crowd. Otherwise, it's trying to keep yourself in a good position in a chaotic Central Region to try and stay in solid position just in case you need a Pool C bid for the NCAA Tournament. I think the Cardinals are pretty safe, but pulling out this win gives you a little insurance.

The Cardinals close out the regular season on Saturday at Wheaton, who will be trying to get a home game on Tuesday. I'll go over full clinching scenarios later today or tomorrow for both the men's and women's CCIW Tournaments, because there's still a lot up for grabs with one to go.

North Central and the NCAA Regional Rankings: Week 2 Edition

It's a Wednesday in February, which means it's time to take a look at the NCAA regional rankings once again!

This will be the second set of rankings for this season; last weeks rankings, plus a primer on how this all works, is here. The biggest difference between last week's rankings and this week's is that we finally bring in the results against regionally ranked opponents criterion. It's an extra data point, and a fairly critical one that can make a huge difference compared to where we were last week.

So now that the regional advisory committees have spoken, let's take a look at the Central region on both the men's and women's sides and see where North Central stacks up.

North Central and the NCAA Regional Rankings: Week 1 Edition

It's a little hard to pinpoint exactly what part of basketball season is my favorite. There's something to be said about the anticipation of a new season in November, but I think a good argument can be made for February. You have a lot of conference races heating up, and at the Division III level, the regional rankings start coming out.

I know I've touched on how these rankings work in years past, now that I fully understand them, but before I delve into them now that the first batch of the year is out, I want to go in depth on how they work so that we fully understand what we're looking at. Every February, the NCAA starts releasing these on a weekly basis on three consecutive Wednesdays leading up to Selection Monday. A fourth and final set gets released after the bracket is out.

First off, throw out the Top 25 poll, because it means nothing when it comes to these rankings. For all intents and purposes, throw out the conference standings as well. The committees that set up these rankings don't use them, so you may see a second place team from a conference top a leader in these. It's perfectly normal.

Instead, each of the country's eight regions as broken up by the NCAA has an advisory committee, with representatives from every conference. These eight committees each have a chair who sits on the national selection committee. Interestingly enough, right now the Central region men's committee, which includes North Central, is chaired by Wheaton head coach Mike Schauer. Basically, what this means is if Wheaton is in consideration for either regional rankings or national tournament selection, he cannot be part of the conversation for obvious reasons. Todd Raridon sits on the Central region advisory committee, so obviously he won't be part of the discussion when NCC gets talked about, but he will help craft what the Central region looks like.

So when the committees go to rank teams, they do it based on a set of criteria:

• Win percentage. This is a given. Officially though, it's win percentage against Division III teams. In the past North Central has played NAIA Robert Morris of Chicago, and that game doesn't count for this metric. Generally, getting to your conference tournament with a 17-8 record (a .680 win percentage) will at least get you in the conversation.
• Strength of schedule. It's good to win a ton of games, but just how good are you? At the D-III level, the NCAA takes your opponents' winning percentage and your opponents' opponents' winning percentage, factors in a multiplier for home and road games, then combines them (two-thirds OWP, one-third OOWP). This number will be rounded to three decimal places, and, except in cases of outliers, will range probably between about 0.480 and 0.620. The "Mendoza Line" for this would probably be around 0.530. Teams with a higher winning percentage can generally get away with a lower strength of schedule, while more losses to a higher strength of schedule can be forgiven.
• Head to head results/results versus common opponents. Officially, this is part of the criteria. Unofficially, it's hard to quantify this because of different conferences. A head to head victory over a team doesn't necessarily mean you will be ranked ahead of them if the other metrics favor the team you beat.
• Results versus regionally ranked opponents. This is the fun one, but one that doesn't apply for this week. Here, the committee takes the rankings from the previous week and current week, and factors your record against teams that are ranked into play. This means both wins and losses, but losses aren't a death knell. A team that went 1-3 against regionally ranked opponents may be ranked higher than one who went 0-1.

All of these factors get mixed together to come up with the rankings, the first set of which came out Wednesday afternoon. Let's take a look.