Damn, it feels good to write this again.
I've done a number of series on here, but this one has been and probably always will be my favorite. I remember always reading and enjoying Bill Simmons' old weekly NFL picks columns, and that inspired me to start a picking contest for this back in 2012 when COAS was in its infancy. My friend Adam Quinn joined the contest in 2013, and became the weekly co-contributor in 2014. In the six seasons since, we've split wins with me taking all the even years and Adam all the odd years. That means, if the pattern holds, I'll get my crown back this season. But, ya know... 2020.
We have much of our crew back for a followup 2020 run. My brother-in-law Joe returns for another go, as does my old WONC friend, Bulls blogger, and 90's Youth Life podcast host Geoffrey Clark. Finally, back for his second year of this is Joe's uncle Jim. The five of us will make our picks every week, but typically only Adam and I will write unless I need someone to fill in for him.
As in years past, I will be tracking how we pick in relation to each other, with Adam's and my picks on here being the official ones and hopefully lining up with what gets picked on ESPN. You can follow the group (and I think up until kickoff tonight, join through this link) here. In our first round of the 2020 season, Adam and I disagree on a whopping 10 games out of 16.
And so dear friends... once more unto the breach.
Thursday Night
Houston Texans @ Kansas City Chiefs (-10.5)
Lucas: Texans. I kind of feel bad for Chiefs fans. You win your first title in half a century, and yeah you got the parade, but getting the season opener is an awesome thing and to only have about 16,000 people there isn't going to be the same. Between that, the Super Bowl celebration hangover, and the fact that this is a lot to lay even at home, I'll open with the points.
Adam: Chiefs. I hate big lines, especially early in the year and in a crazy year at that. But the wins keep on coming for Mahomes. A couple weeks ago, he got a ring and then gave a ring. This man cannot be stopped.
Sunday, Early Afternoon
Seattle Seahawks @ Atlanta Falcons (+1.5)
Lucas: Seahawks. Nuts to your "West Coast team playing out east at noon" narrative.
Adam: Seahawks. Pains me to pick a team led by Pete Carroll, but the Falcons seem to be a team of disappointment. No matter what I think they can do they just don’t seem to live up to it.
Lucas note: A couple years old now, but still relevant.
New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills (-6.5)
Lucas: Jets. I don't trust the Jets, but I feel like a touchdown is a lot to lay in a division game. I'll try to play it safe here.
Adam: Bills. Cue the Mafia for one heck of a season. Third year for starting QB Josh Allen. Add a few nice pieces around him with the likes of Stefon Diggs, and it could be a good year for Buffalo.
Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions (-1.5)
Lucas: Bears. Mitch is gonna be yanked by like halftime, and Nick Foles will have to come save the day, won't he?
Adam: Lions. If I have said it once, I will have to say it 100 times. How can you not like Napoleon? (No need to check how many times I have said this Lucas, I remember every time.) Cleary the Foles is the better choice than the dry and salty Biscuit. Why can’t the Bears cut their losses and finally admit Mitch is a flop?On a third down from the Packers' three-yard line, this play went for -minus five yards. Bonus points if you spot the open player.... pic.twitter.com/sLrsDmvK04
— dan durkin (@djdurkin) September 11, 2018
Cleveland Browns @ Baltimore Ravens (-8.5)
Lucas: Browns. Adam, you wanna take the low hanging fruit here, or should we just leave this as the elephant turd in the toilet bowl?
Adam: Ravens. Lamar Jackson will have another stud year. Maybe not quite the season as last year; should have some regression to the mean. But still, he, combined with Hollywood, should be a very positive year for the Ravens.
Lucas note: Okay, to be fair: Adam sent me his picks on Monday, but I gave him the opportunity to work in a joke here. We didn't have a training camp either.
Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings (-3.5)
Lucas: Packers. I'm picking maybe more with my heart than my head here, but I've got the Packers winning the division, and winning up in Minnesota will help significantly with that.
Adam: Vikings. Tough early game for both teams. This could be a preview of what would be the top two teams in the NFC North. I like the Vikes at home with better, younger talent.
Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars (+7.5)
Lucas: Jaguars. It's inevitable. The Jags are a dumpster fire, so naturally they'll at least hang around, maybe back door cover, maybe even pull the outright upset. The storyline is there for the taking.
Adam: Colts. If Jacksonville hadn’t become a dumpster fire over the past three weeks, I might have taken a different line, but even Minshew cannot overcome the absolute dismantling that took place. Plus, I think Rivers could have something of a second coming in Indy.
Las Vegas Raiders @ Carolina Panthers (+1.5)
Lucas: Raiders. I don't like this game or either team, but I think I trust the Raiders slightly more. Sorry Teddy.
Adam: Raiders. I am assuming this line was put out a while ago. I don’t see the Panthers doing much of anything, plus the Raiders' first season out of Oakland is bound to enjoy the better scenery.
Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots (-6.5)
Lucas: Dolphins. Taking the points as we see our first Patriots action without Touchdown Tom in two decades (not counting the year Bernard Karmell Pollard first happened). So weird.
Adam: Dolphins. Dolphins fan here... haha, that’s for you Joe. Not sure what to make of the Pats this year yet. Not sure Diva Mrs. Cam Newton makes sense with Ol’ Billy Boy. Plus FitzMagic...
Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Football Team (+6.5)
Lucas: Washington. How long before you think Carson Wentz gets hurt again and Nate Sudfeld has to take over? I say... third quarter.
Adam: Eagles. Does the football team of Washington have any chance at anything this year...?
Lucas note: Prolly not.
Sunday, Late Afternoon
Los Angeles Chargers @ Cincinnati Bengals (+3.5)
Lucas: Chargers. Welcome to the NFL, Joe Burrow. Have fun getting killed by Joey Bosa on your third dropback.
Adam: Bengals. I have been hot and cold then hot again on Burrows. He seems thirsty to prove himself despite being little more than a backup on Ohio State before transferring into LSU. I’ll give him a fair shot to start the season.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New Orleans Saints (-3.5)
Lucas: Saints. Is it counting out Touchdown Tom if it's his first game with a brand new team in a likely semihostile environment? Yes? Okay.
Adam: Saints. Tough call here in the Senior Bowl between 40+ year old Brady and 40+ year old Brees. Comes down to I know what I am getting with Brees at home as opposed to TB in TB.
Arizona Cardinals @ San Francisco 49ers (-7.5)
Lucas: Cardinals. Partially because it's a lot to lay, partially because I think the Cardinals might be able to keep up and maybe even pull a Week 1 upset. Largely, it's because I'm still kinda pissed at the Niners for cutting Broc Rutter.
Adam: Cardinals. I think the Cards can be quite a sleeper team this year. Murray did much better last year than many thought he could, and now that he comes back for his sophomore year, we will see if he can make the right steps forward or not. I’m betting he can.
Sunday Night
Dallas Cowboys @ Los Angeles Rams (+2.5)
Lucas: Cowboys. Let Mike McCarthy get his first Cowboys win and get the talking heads in Dallas fired up early so we can enjoy their misery later.
Adam: Rams. Again, guessing these lines came out a while ago. I’ll happily take 2.5 points at home. Plus, Dak was recently rated at the 18th-best QB in the NFL; cannot win a championship with that.
Lucas note:
Monday Night
Pittsburgh Steelers @ New York Giants (+3.5)
Lucas: Giants. Call this my upset special of the week... not that that's becoming a thing. I'm just gonna try to really back my hot take from earlier this week.
Adam: Steelers. Don’t really know much about either team this year. Was never high on whatever his name is, oh, Daniel Jones, in New York, so I’ll take the Steelers on the road.
Tennessee Titans @ Denver Broncos (-2.5)
Lucas: Titans. And since I used my one Monday Night upset pick already... let's take the team I think is way better between the two.
Adam: Titans. Seems like more of a toss-up game in my opinion. I like what Tennessee did at the end of last year, plus landing Clowney gives this defense a nice hand up. I'll take the points in this Monday night showdown.
Records Last Year
Lucas: 130-126
Adam: 141-115
Joe: 124-128
Geoffrey: 130-126
Jim: 131-125
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