I've condensed my process down to three days' worth of posting instead of six, so we're down to just two divisions to preview. We're back to the National League one more time with one Wild Card berth still up for grabs.
Last year: 104-58 (1st in NL West), 7 wins above COAS prediction; Lost World Series
After years of falling short in the postseason, the Dodgers finally got back to the promised land but couldn't close the deal, falling in Game 7. There's no reason to think they can't make it back this year. Their young and promising core remains in place, though Justin Turner is out for the foreseeable future with a broken wrist. Even so, Corey Seager and Cody Bellinger can hold down the fort without him. The big question is whether Matt Kemp will return to his form from earlier in the decade. Pitching isn't an issue, even if the rotation took a depth hit, as did the bullpen a little bit. That Kershaw guy at the top will ensure this team makes it back to October.
2018 Prediction: 96-66
Last year: 93-69 (2nd in NL West), 19 wins above COAS prediction; Lost in NLDS
I really underestimated these guys last year. I do think they take a step back without J.D. Martinez, but Paul Goldschmidt finally got his October moment in the spotlight and will still lead a good group on offense. The rotation still boasts an ace in Zach Greinke. If enough of their other young guys can continue to step up I think this team will compete for the NL West crown, while still making the playoffs.
2018 Prediction: 91-71, Wild Card
Last year: 87-75 (3rd in NL West), 7 wins above COAS prediction; Lost NL Wild Card Game
The Rockies' rotation is pretty young and unproven, but young and unproven got them to the Wild Card game last fall, and a bunch of these guys are entering or are in their primes. They need to take a step forward in what should be a competitive division, because they don't want to rely entirely on their offense. The offense can carry this team for stretches though. Charlie Blackmon was a monster at the top of the lineup, Nolan Arenado is an MVP candidate, and you still have Trevor Story and Carlos Gonzalez to deal with as well. I think the Rockies are once again in the mix, but with that unproven rotation, we'll see if they have enough to make it back to the playoffs.
2018 Prediction: 87-75
Last year: 64-98 (5th in NL West), 27 wins below COAS prediction; Missed playoffs
So I originally had the Giants as a Wild Card team, partially because of Even Year Devil Magic and partially because they made a couple deals to try and go all in again. The outfield issue from last year is solved the trade for Andrew McCutchen, and Evan Longoria will handle third base nicely. Combine that with the best catcher in the game in Buster Posey (sorry, had to trigger Cardinals fans) and this team should be right in the thick of the NL West race. I emphasize "should," because Madison Bumgarner broke his hand and will miss a chunk of time, and Jeff Samardzija might miss time as well. The combination of these two factors I think has them start slow, and they can't quite recover.
2018 Prediction: 81-81
Last year: 71-91 (4th in NL West), 8 wins above COAS prediction; Missed playoffs
San Diego made one of the big signings of the offseason, acquiring Eric Hosmer to play first base. But this team needs a lot more than just a good first baseman. Wil Myers is good out in the outfield, but the rest of the lineup is full of young and unproven guys. The Padres also lost their top rotation guy in Andrew Cashner. Add all the pieces up, and I'm not sold on the Padres.
2018 Prediction: 70-92
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