This brings us to the country's center, and after ending yesterday in the American League, we go to my division of greatest familiarity in the NL Central.
Last year: 92-70 (1st in NL Central), 8 wins below COAS prediction; Lost in NLCS
It's possible that there was a World Series hangover last year, yet the Cubs still won over 90 games and the division while making a third straight NLCS appearance. There's no reason to think they can't do so again. The young core has another year of experience to draw upon, with Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo anchoring the heart of the lineup, Addison Russell and Javier Baez bringing good bats and excellent gloves up the middle, a slimmer Kyle Schwarber in the lineup, and what would appear through Spring Training to be the heir to Dexter Fowler in Ian Happ, who will probably be the Opening Day leadoff man. The rotation is still good, with Yu Darvish and Tyler Chatwood replacing Jake Arrieta and John Lackey, respectively. I'm not sure what to expect out of the bullpen without a proven ninth inning guy, but I'm sure they'll settle that issue over the course of a pennant run.
2018 Prediction: 94-68
Last year: 86-76 (2nd in NL Central), 17 wins above COAS prediction; Missed playoffs
The Brewers were a big surprise in 2017, leading the Central for a good chunk of the summer before faltering late. They'll be right back in the mix this season though after making a couple big splashes over the winter, trading for Christian Yelich from the Marlins and signing Lorenzo Cain. It might make Ryan Braun be less of a factor as he'll probably split time between left field and first base. The pitching staff is young and fairly unproven, but they pitched well last year and another year of development will have the Brew Crew in contention and make for some exciting games at Wrigley North this season. So exciting, in fact, that the Brew Crew will sneak into the playoffs this time.
2018 Prediction: 88-74, Wild Card
Last year: 83-79 (3rd in NL Central), 1 win below COAS prediction; Missed playoffs
St. Louis also pillaged the Marlins in their fire sale with the trade for Marcell Ozuna while seeming sold on some of their home grown talent. Tommy Pham had a strong 2017 campaign, but he just turned 30 and it's hard to say whether last year was a leap or an aberration. The Cards will also need young guns like Paul DeJong to step up and guys like Dexter Fowler to live up to his deal. The pitching staff has some decent pieces, but Adam Wainwright isn't the guy he used to be and Michael Wacha is pretty good, but not an elite pitcher. And Yadi, god of the Cardinals fans, turns 36 this season and isn't the same guy he used to be. Even so, the Cardinals are a team that will be in the mix again this year, but not quite good enough for playoff contention.
2018 Prediction: 86-76
Last year: 68-94 (5th in NL Central), 3 wins above COAS prediction; Missed playoffs
I think things are starting to turn back around in Cincy after a few years at the bottom of the division. Joey Votto continues to do Joey Votto things and he's got some good young talent around him; Scooter Gennett had an excellent 2017 and Eugenio Suarez is a solid third baseman. Billy Hamilton needs to get on base more, though his 2017 was down compared to prior years even though he still stole over 50 bases. I'm not really sold on the pitching staff, but they have a good catcher working with them in Tucker Barnhart. The Reds won't compete for the division, but I don't see them rolling over this season.
2018 Prediction: 72-90
Last year: 75-87 (4th in NL Central), 2 wins below COAS prediction; Missed playoffs
For a few years the Pirates had shed their loser label and made some playoff appearances (most of which resulted in getting bounced at home in the Wild Card game) and now they seem destined to head back to those days. Andrew McCutchen is gone, though much of his supporting cast from years past remains. Starling Marte and Gregory Polanco will roam the outfield in his absence while Josh Harrison leads a so-so infield. Much was made of Pittsburgh's pitching prospects, but they haven't really lived up to the hype yet, and with Gerritt Cole now gone to Houston, it'll be up to Ivan Nova to lead that rotation. I think it's going to be a pretty rough year at PNC.
2018 Prediction: 64-98
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