I'm doing two divisions a day for the next couple of days as well, rounding things out with the division of our defending World Series champion. This year we're starting out east again and after covering the National League side of this geography, we're moving on to the AL East.
Last year: 91-71 (2nd in AL East), 9 wins above COAS prediction; Lost in ALCS
I had the Yankees fourth in the division last year, which shows that nine win difference between my prediction and reality wasn't as close as it appeared. Then the Yankees went out and made the big splash of the offseason by trading for Giancarlo Stanton. It gives them a modern day Murderers' Row with him and Aaron Judge, with good table setters in guys like Brett Gardner and Didi Gregorius. Gary Sanchez is one of the best young catchers in the game, and will be handling a strong starting rotation that added Sonny Gray to round it into form. The Evil Empire is alive and well.
2018 Prediction: 101-61
Last year: 93-69 (1st in AL East), 6 wins below COAS prediction; Lost in ALDS
Boston's gotten bounced in the first round each of the last three years, but there's no reason they can't be right back in the thick of the pennant hunt this season. The lineup is mostly young but has a lot of proven players as well with guys like Dustin Pedroia (if healthy) and Hanley Ramirez complementing young guns Andrew Benintendi and Rafael Devers. The addition of J.D. Martinez brings a heavy hitter into the middle of that lineup. The pitching staff remains elite with Chris Sale at the top, and having David Price and Rick Porcello behind him is a pretty good 1-3. If Pedroia misses significant time it could hurt a little bit, but I don't think enough to keep the Sox out of the playoffs.
2018 Prediction: 93-69, Wild Card
Last year: 75-97 (5th in AL East), 14 wins below COAS prediction; Missed playoffs
The O's followed up a 2016 crash and burn in the Wild Card Game with a last place finish, though it's not like they were terrible. It will be interesting to see how Manny Machado handles the transition back to shortstop in the final year of his contract, but his offense shouldn't be a problem. Chris Davis and Adam Jones need to complement him well, and the continued development of Trey Mancini is a big question for the O's. They bolstered their starting rotation with Alex Cobb last week, which will help, but injuries to a couple key guys (Mark Trumbo, Zach Britton) will be things to watch. I still think Baltimore will have a decent year that will keep them competitive.
2018 Prediction: 85-77
Last year: 76-86 (4th in AL East), 12 wins below COAS prediction; Missed playoffs
After moving on from guys like Jose Bautista, the Jays still have a decent offensive core led by Josh Donaldson and Troy Tulowitzki, though Tulo won't be ready for Opening Day. Toronto went out and acquired some outfield help in the offseason in Curtis Granderson and Randall Grichuk, who aren't bad. We'll see how that rotation does, considering nobody really strikes any fear into your heart, no disrespect to J.A. Happ, Anibal Sanchez or Marco Estrada.
2018 Prediction: 74-88
Last year: 80-82 (3rd in AL East), 11 wins above COAS prediction; Missed playoffs
Tampa did all right for itself last year but is without two of their better guys from last year in Evan Longoria and Alex Cobb. Chris Archer is still a decent top of the rotation starter, but they're only going with a four man rotation, something unheard of in the modern era. We'll see how it goes for them, but I think it'll be tough to maintain a high level at that pace. The team will need guys like C.J. Cron and Carlos Gomez to play very well if the Rays want to stay competitive in what might be the toughest division in baseball.
2018 Prediction: 65-97
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