This year I'm not plugging a Tournament of Champions with the MLB one concluded last year. Instead I'm focused solely on the upcoming season.
As is my custom, I go through one division per post, but this year I'm condensing stuff down to three days, with two posts coming per day leading up to the start of the season. As usual, I'm alternating leagues and working my way around the country, ending with the division of the defending champion. With that thought in mind, let's kick things off with the NL East.
Last year: 97-65 (1st in NL East), 2 wins above COAS prediction; Lost in NLDS
Another year, another October choke. Yet the Nats should be right back in the thick of the race for best team in the National League. They get Adam Eaton back for a full season after an injury wiped out his 2017, which complements a nice core led by Bryce Harper. Daniel Murphy will probably miss a little bit of the beginning of the year, but there's enough other talent here. Max Scherzer highlights a good rotation that should have the Nats right back to the postseason... but whether they can finally win a playoff series is anyone's guess.
2018 Prediction: 97-65
Last year: 70-92 (4th in NL East), 20 wins below COAS prediction; Missed playoffs
I'd highlighted the Mets as a dark horse last year, but noted that they needed to stay healthy to make it happen. Of course, they didn't. They return a starting rotation that, on paper, should be one of the better ones in baseball, but again, it all hinges on if they're healthy. The Mets also added a couple veterans to their lineup in Todd Frazier and Adrian Gonzalez, the former of whom is more important in that David Wright will miss the beginning of the season. If these veterans along with guys like Jay Bruce and Yoenis Cespedes can hit to complement that rotation, the Mets should be in the mix.
2018 Prediction: 85-77
Last year: 66-96 (5th in NL East), 3 wins below COAS prediction; Missed playoffs
Rhys Hoskins proved to be a pretty solid player in a 50 game sample last year for Philly, who might be starting to turn the corner. They added Carlos Santana to play first base and bring a veteran bat to the lineup to complement guys like Hoskins and Odubel Herrera. Their pitching staff got a huge boost in the offseason as well with the addition of Jake Arrieta, who if he pitches even close to like he did the last few years in Chicago, will be a key part of this rotation. I don't think it'll be quite good enough to get the Phillies into playoff contention, but it will be a big step up from where they've been.
2018 Prediction: 79-83
Last year: 72-90 (3rd in NL East), 6 wins above COAS prediction; Missed playoffs
The Braves were a decent team, relatively speaking, last season, but I'm not really impressed by this team. They're one of those mediocre teams with a lot of decent veterans, but I'm not sold on a lot of guys here. Freddie Freeman is good at first, and they have a decent catcher in Tyler Flowers, but guys like Nick Markakis won't help unless a lot of the rest of the youth steps up. Julio Teheran is a good pitcher to top the rotation, but I'm not sold on anybody else down the line. It'll be a long year in year two of Suntrust Park. I guess it could be worse though...
2018 Prediction: 66-96
Last year: 77-85 (2nd in NL East), 2 wins below COAS prediction; Missed playoffs
The more things change, the more they stay the same. Scumbag Jeff Loria is gone, replaced by an ownership group that includes Yankee legend Derek Jeter. But once the sale was complete, Jeter immediately pulled a Loria and began dismantling a team that had a lot of nice pieces in place. Young stalwarts in Giancarlo Stanton and Christian Yelich, along with Marcell Ozuna, are all gone in salary saving moves. This is a team now led by the likes of Cameron Maybin, Starlin Castro, and Justin Bour. Given the likelihood that more of these guys may get shipped out in July, this team could challenge the 2003 Tigers for modern futility.
2018 Prediction: 52-110
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