I got a look this morning at my most familiar division. Today, I go to my second most familiar division as we stay in the Midwest and take a look at the AL Central.
Last year: 102-60 (1st in AL Central), 2 wins above COAS prediction; Lost in ALDS
Cleveland was a sexy October pick last year, especially after they went on that 22 game win streak late last season. They bring back a significant chunk of that group led by Francisco Lindor, Edwin Encarnacion, and Jose Ramirez. Bradley Zimmer's development in center field is probably the biggest question mark in an otherwise solid lineup. The pitching is still fantastic with an excellent rotation led by Corey Kluber and a bullpen that still features multi-inning weapon Andrew Miller. There's no reason the Indians can't be right back in the thick of the 2018 playoff hunt.
2018 Prediction: 92-70
Last year: 85-77 (2nd in AL Central), 21 wins above COAS prediction; Lost AL Wild Card Game
I wasn't very bullish on Minnesota last year after a down 2016, but Ervin Santana helped get the team off the ground and into a wild card spot. They added some veteran arms to help the ace who will miss some time in Jake Odorizzi and Lance Lynn, which will help, and Fernando Rodney will be firing off arrows in the ninth inning for the Twins. The lineup is the question though: can Byron Buxton pick up where he left off in the second half of last year offensively? He'll have help from guys like Miguel Sano and Brian Dozier while Jorge Polanco sits out half the year for PED's. Can the ageless Joe Mauer also continue to hit? I think this team will be a factor in September but fall just short.
2018 Prediction: 85-77
Last year: 80-82 (3rd in AL Central), 3 wins below COAS prediction; Missed playoffs
The Royals played decent baseball last season again, and I don't see why they can't again this year. Their core remains intact with Mike Moustakas back to complement Alex Gordon, Salvador Perez, and Jorge Soler. Jon Jay joins to add defense and a possible leadoff presence to the lineup. I'm not totally sold on the rotation, though it's not bad, and the bullpen remains a weapon to be feared. I think the Royals stay about where they were last year, which isn't quite good enough for a team only two years removed from a World Series title.
2018 Prediction: 82-80
Last year: 67-95 (4th in AL Central), 2 wins below COAS prediction; Missed playoffs
The eyes on the South Side are still on the future, but it's a fairly bright one for the Sox. After dealing off some of their old core pieces in the last year and a half, some of the returns are starting to show. Yoan Moncada's development continues, Jose Abreu remains at first base, and other young guns like Matt Davidson, Nicky Delmonico, and Adam Engel need to continue to develop at the Major League level. The rotation is an interesting question; Carlos Rodon will miss time due to shoulder surgery, but when he comes back he could be a nice boost to a good young rotation that will also be interesting with a full year from Lucas Giolito. I think the White Sox are in 2014-early 2015 Cubs mode; they'll be interesting to see continue to grow.
2018 Prediction: 76-86
Last year: 64-98 (5th in AL Central), 19 wins below COAS prediction; Missed playoffs
After years of hanging around the Tigers finally came back down to earth last year, trading away longtime ace Justin Verlander at the deadline. It's a rotation led by Jordan Zimmermann and Francisco Liriano now. The lineup is nowhere near as deadly as it was years ago, though Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez will still do their damage. They'll need youth development from guys like Jeimer Candelario and contributions from veterans like Leonys Martin, but I think the Tigers are pretty clearly at the beginning stages of a rebuild.
2018 Prediction: 65-97
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