We had a fun scenario coming into Saturday's slate of games to close out the regular season. Only two tournament bids had been claimed, with first place still up for grabs, and there was a three way tie for the final two spots. There were, in the grand scheme of things, only two games that really mattered from my perspective, and I did some stat watching in the evening while also catching the tail end of one game live, then I went back to watch North Central's regular season finale... holy crap.
So without further ado, here is a look at your 2016 CCIW Women's Basketball Tournament.
2015 CCIW Women's Basketball Tournament
 |
| Photo by Wheaton College Athletic Department |
I pretty much just copy-pasted this section from last year's Tournament preview. Wheaton gets its fourth turn hosting this event and King Arena's nets will be cut down for the second consecutive year by the CCIW Champion. It's a very nice gym, and Wheaton fans are very passionate, which makes this a great place for the tournament to be held.
Semifinal #1
Record: 16-9 (11-3); 12th tournament appearance (1st since 2014), 6 titles
After a weird down year, the Titans were expected to finish fifth in the CCIW. Instead, they earned a share of the CCIW title and get to wear white in their semifinal game. I think a very tough non conference schedule (including getting destroyed by the best player in the country in Thomas More's Sydney Moss) helped set them up for a great conference season, with their three conference losses coming to Wheaton twice and at North Central. This is a young but incredibly talented team led by the guard duo of Rebekah Ehresman (14.1 points per game on 44.9 percent shooting, including a 38.3 percent mark from beyond the arc) and Molly McGraw (14.0 points per game on 38.0 percent shooting). Both are only sophomores, so this is their first experience on this stage, but they're among the best players in the conference. If these two can be shut down, it becomes a lot easier to knock off this Titan team, but the real struggle with this squad is their pressure defense. It's not quite the same as what North Central runs, but they held the Cardinals to a season-low 66 points in Bloomington. That has to count for something.
Record: 14-11 (8-6); 4th tournament appearance (2nd consecutive), 0 titles
North Central once again leads the country in scoring offense at 94.8 points per game, and this year they're doing it behind a deluge of three pointers. As a team, the Cardinals are shooting 29.3 percent from beyond the arc, a number that has jumped to 31.3 percent during CCIW play. They have a little more balance this year with three players in double figures, led by stud point guard Mayson Whipple (12.8 points per game on 41.8 percent shooting). The Cardinals appear to have also found the heir apparent to Tess Godhardt in sophomore Therese Pettersson, who averaged 12 points per game on 48 percent shooting, including a 40.5 percent clip from beyond the arc in a smaller sample size. Jamie Cuny, meanwhile, has continued to Jamie Cuny things, averaging 10.1 points per game while blocking 89 shots through 25 games. Then when you factor in six other players averaging at least seven points a game... you can't key in on just one player, though keying in on Mayson Whipple will help stall a powerful Cardinal attack. The other key is breaking a press that forced over 700 turnovers in 25 games. North Central gives up points and the occasional fast break layup, but they can make you pay for it with multiple turnovers, Jamie Cuny block parties, and a barrage of threes.
Semifinal #2
Record: 20-5 (11-3); 12th tournament appearance (6th consecutive), 4 titles
The Thunder lost one of their best players in Ellie Zeller before CCIW play began, but this team didn't seem to skip a beat. They play a very disciplined style of basketball that has them scoring a little over 70 points a game on 40 percent shooting, largely thanks to the play of point guard Katie McDaniels (16.1 points per game on 41.1 percent shooting, plus about five assists per game). Their forward play has also been excellent, as center Hannah Considine continues to be a threat (10.2 points per game on 55 percent shooting). This is a team that, by and large, does not make mistakes. The Thunder went 10-1 at home on the season and their three CCIW losses all came on the road: at Elmhurst, at North Park, and at Augustana. Considering that the host team has won the CCIW Tournament every year save one, the Thunder are the favorites to once again grab the auto bid.
Record: 13-12 (7-7); 6th tournament apperance (3rd consecutive), 0 titles
I was in the minority when I pegged Elmhurst as one of the bigger threats in the CCIW, seeing as they were picked to finish sixth in the conference in the coaches' poll, but here they are. A lot of people figured the graduation of All-American center Fiona McMahon would be a death knell, but instead sophomore Mikaela Eppard picked up the slack, averaging 17 points a game on 47.8 percent shooting while also averaging a conference-leading 9.8 rebounds per game. Claire Monroe remains a big threat on the perimeter as well (9.1 points per game on 40 percent shooting, including 41 percent from beyond the arc). This is also a very disciplined team that shot 74.2 percent at the free throw line, second best in the conference. They'll make you pay for fouling.
Tournament Predictions
The CCIW has been so wonky this season, but conference tournaments tend to be pretty straightforward. The #4 seed has never won a tournament game, and I see no reason to think that that would change this year, as Wheaton gets past Elmhurst. The Cardinals and Titans are two very good teams, and this will be a good game, but with the extra gear the Cardinals seem to have found recently, I think they manage to pull the upset and get back to the CCIW title game. Unfortunately, I don't know that the Cardinals will have the firepower to knock off Wheaton. They'll give Wheaton hell once again, but I think the Thunder will once again get the CCIW's automatic bid.
No comments:
Post a Comment