North Central and the NCAA Regional Rankings: Week 3 Edition

It is Championship Week in NCAA's Division III. In most of the nation's conferences, the bottom teams in the standings are done while those near the top are fighting for automatic bids.

Over the last couple of days, I've previewed both the men's tournament and the women's tournament in the CCIW. Each four-team tournament will send one team to its respective NCAA Tournament, but depending on the regional rankings, at large bids may be in the discussion.

Today the NCAA will release its third and final public regional rankings on both the men's and women's sides. They do one more final set of rankings, but those remain secret for the selection committee, who will use those among other factors to fill the field. Even with one more secret poll being done, the final public rankings are still valuable to see where everyone stands.

So with that in mind, here is where each NCC team stands from a national perspective.

Women's Basketball

Record: 14-11 overall, 8-6 CCIW (3rd)
Central Region: Unranked (out of 9 teams) (LW: NR)

Again, it's no real surprise that the Cardinals aren't ranked in the Central region. The WIAC is loaded this season, and the Cardinals have 11 losses to begin with, which pretty much guarantees that they wouldn't be regionally ranked. This is still clearly a dangerous team though, as evidenced by their late comeback against North Park on Saturday to steal the #3 seed out from under the Vikings.

North Central doesn't have the strength of schedule or the resume to challenge for an at large bid, and their 0-4 mark against other regionally ranked foes (losses to Maryville, Denison, and a pair to Wheaton) doesn't give them the quality wins they need at this stage. That means only one way back into the NCAA Tournament for a second straight year: win the CCIW Tournament. They have a tough test, though in theory it's certainly doable. Historically though, only four #3 seeds have so much as made the CCIW Championship Game, and none of them have ever toppled the host team (heck, the host team has won all but one CCIW automatic bid in the CCIW Tournament era, and that was back in 2004 or so).

Speaking of host teams, Wheaton remains sixth in the Central region, and given their competition, it's completely justified. The Thunder are locked into a 2-1 mark against regionally ranked foes, but their .550 strength of schedule is solid. Unfortunately, it pales in comparison to the top teams of the WIAC along with Wash U in St. Louis at .613. The Bears have already locked up the UAA's automatic bid (their conference has no tournament) and at #1 in the Central have a strong chance to host the first weekend. With Wheaton ranked so low in the Central, I'm expecting the CCIW to only get one bid this year, especially with the WIAC being as strong as it is. For North Central especially, that means knocking off a very good Illinois Wesleyan team and exorcising the Wheaton demons to get in.

Men's Basketball

Record: 19-6 overall, 12-2 CCIW (2nd)
Central Region: 4th (out of 8 teams) (LW: 4th)

Not a ton has changed from last week, other than the Cardinals solidifying their resume with a nice win at North Park. This means an at large NCC team would have seven losses, which isn't insurmountable. The Cardinals' resume is very solid, with the toughest schedule in the region, all six losses (as well as the hypothetical seventh) coming to regionally ranked opponents, and good wins over teams like Elmhurst twice as well as Mount Union.

The point from last week remains valid: North Central is currently sitting behind three teams who, if conference tournaments go to form, will all receive automatic bids, leaving the Cardinals as the highest ranked Pool C team in the Central region. For historical purposes, I also went back to look at last year's NCAA Tournament to see how teams ranked in the final regional rankings fared in their quest for tournament invites. Here's what I found:

• Every #1 ranked team made the NCAA Tournament (6 auto bids, 2 at large)
• 7 of 8 #2 ranked teams made the NCAA Tournament (3 auto bids, 4 at large, East #2 Plattsburgh State lost the SUNYAC Championship Game)
• 6 of 8 #3 ranked teams made the NCAA Tournament (1 auto bid, 5 at large, East #3 Hobart lost in the Liberty League semifinal, West #3 Buena Vista lost in the IIAC semifinal)
• 5 of 8 #4 ranked teams made the NCAA Tournament (2 auto bids, 3 at large, Atlantic #4 Brooklyn lost in the CUNYAC Championship Game, Mid Atlantic #4 Franklin & Marshall lost in the Centennial Conference semifinal, West #4 Whitman lost in the Northwestern Conference semifinal)
• 5 of 8 #5 ranked teams made the NCAA Tournament (4 auto bids, 1 at large, Atlantic #5 Rutgers-Newark lost in the NJAC semifinal, East #5 NYU finished 3rd in the UAA, South #5 Centre lost in the SAA semifinal
• 4 of 8 #6 ranked teams made the NCAA Tournament (2 auto bids, 2 at large, East #6 Clarkson lost in the Liberty League Championship Game, Great Lakes #6 Penn State-Behrend lost in the AMCC semifinal, Mid Atlantic #6 St. Mary's (Maryland) lost in the CAC semifinal, South #6 Hardin-Simmons lost in the American Southwest Conference semifinal)
• 4 of 6 #7 ranked teams made the NCAA Tournament (3 auto bids, 1 at large, South #7 Rhodes lost in the SAA Championship Game, West #7 Bethel lost in the MIAC Championship Game)
• 1 of 4 #8 ranked teams made the NCAA Tournament (Great Lakes #8 St. Vincent won the PAC Tournament, Central #8 North Central lost in the CCIW semifinal, Northeast #8 Bowdoin lost in the NESCAC semifinal, South #8 Mary Hardin-Baylor lost in the American Southwest Conference quarterfinal)
• 1 of 2 #9 ranked teams made the NCAA Tournament (Northeast #9 Springfield got an at large bid, Great Lakes #9 Hope lost in the MIAC Championship Game)
• Northeast #10 Southern Vermont lost in the NECC Championship Game, Northeast #11 Wesleyan won the NESCAC Tournament

I know I just threw a lot of numbers at you, so to sum it all up, being ranked at least fourth in your conference gives you a very good shot at getting in, but there are obviously other factors to look at. Given North Central's strength of schedule and overall resume, I have a hard time seeing the committee not putting them into the NCAA Tournament. The easiest way to get in remains to win the CCIW Tournament and not have to worry about the at large bids. If North Central does lose this weekend, they need to root for chalk elsewhere around the country. Any top seeds from other conferences that drop early might push the Cardinals further down the list, but last year proved that high regional rankings allowed for an at large bid, at least as long as you weren't in the East region. Heck, the Central got four at large bids last year, which might be a little high compared to the normal year, but it sets a pretty good precedent.

Photo from Benedictine University Athletic Department

This again begs the question of where North Central would head for NCAA Tournament play. I do have confirmation that North Central did put in a bid for hosting privileges, but besides facilities, bodies of work have a high priority in determining host sites. When you consider that Benedictine is undefeated, should they win the NACC Tournament they're probably going to be a first weekend host site, and my source and I both expressed doubts that the NCAA would have two host sites only four miles apart. A CCIW Champion North Central might end up in Wisconsin at St. Norbert or possibly in Ohio with some of the Great Lakes schools depending on the whims of the NCAA, but especially if North Central falls this weekend, I have a feeling we would be having to make the short drive up Maple Avenue to Benedictine and a probably second round collision course with the Eagles.

Looking at the rest of the Central region just for giggles, Augie and Benedictine are absolute locks, regardless of conference tournament results. St. Norbert is probably in as well given how they've run through conference opposition this season. The tricky one in the rest of the region is Elmhurst. Two weeks ago, and even last week, I thought Elmhurst was almost a certainty to get in, but a lot of people now have them as a serious bubble team. A third loss to North Central on Friday might be the final nail in their coffin.

Now, a lot of things can change in the next few days, depending on how many Cinderellas attempt to crash the ball and what North Central does out in Rock Island. But I have a hard time seeing the Cardinals get snubbed again. Not this year.