The regular season is almost over. Most CCIW schools, with the exception of Wheaton's women's team, have just one game left to try to prove themselves. For many CCIW teams, Saturday's finales represent the conclusion of a schedule. For others, it's one last chance to add to their resume before we delve into postseason play.
I already touched on
CCIW Tournament scenarios earlier this week, so I'm not going to focus at all on those. The purpose here is to look at NCAA Tournament scenarios for both the men's and women's teams, compared to
where we were last week.
Women's Basketball
Record: 13-11 overall, 7-6 CCIW (T-3rd)
Central Region: Unranked (out of 9 teams) (LW: NR)
No real change from last week. You're not going to be ranked regionally with 11 losses, no matter how tough your schedule is; that's just a reality. This team has a chance though to finish where the CCIW coaches predicted they would. From there though, there's only one road into the NCAA Tournament, and that's via the automatic bid. That auto bid all but certainly requires exorcising the Wheaton demons. I honestly don't know that I see it happening this season, but this Cardinal team has already knocked off Illinois Wesleyan, and has been shooting very well from outside. It's not out of the realm of possibility, but once again, it would require a perfect game to do.
Elsewhere in the region, Wheaton jumped up to sixth, but still sits behind that four-headed UW monster as well as Wash U-St. Louis. They're not going to get all four in, but with 20 at large bids up for grabs, I could see at least two, maybe three, WIAC schools making The Dance. Whether Wheaton could get in as an at large team or not, I'm not sure. Their .550 strength of schedule isn't bad, and they are 2-1 against regionally ranked foes. Since they have a strong shot of hosting the CCIW Tournament though, I have my doubts that it's going to matter.
Men's Basketball
Record: 18-6 overall, 11-2 CCIW (2nd)
Central Region: 4th (out of 8 teams) (LW: 4th)
With record against regionally ranked foes coming into the formula this week, last Saturday's date with Elmhurst took on extra importance, and the Cardinals took care of business. While that game had no impact on the CCIW other than deciding who will wear white in Rock Island on Friday, falling to 2-7 against regionally ranked opposition would have been a huge stain on North Central's Tournament resume. As it is, they're the second-best team in the CCIW and the highest ranked non-regular season champion in the Central region.
Despite some earlier research that had suggested the possibility of the Cardinals moving up to third in the Central region, they stand pat in fourth, which I still think is completely fair, since the three teams above them have a combined three losses. We're also starting to see quite a few teams end up with six losses at this point, which is continuing to open the door for the Cardinals.
I'm going to once again refer to Illinois Wesleyan alum Bob Quillman in
a well-researched message board post regarding NCC's chances for an at large bid. Their strength of schedule is holding firm at .598, which remains the second best mark in the country by a landslide, and they're just a thousandth of a point behind Emory for the toughest schedule in the country. You factor all these things in, and I'll once again quote Mr. Quillman from the above post.
"If North Central is the highest Central Region Pool C on the board on
Selection Sunday (meaning Augie, Benedictine, and St. Norbert are all
Pool A), NCC is an absolute lock in my opinion...even at .680. There is
no way the Central Region gets shut out of Pool C."
This, of course, brings hosting privileges into question. North Central has too many losses for me to get three extra games of work onto my belt this year at Merner, so it becomes a question of where the Cardinals end up. This, of course, largely depends on what happens with conference tournaments. A CCIW Champion North Central team might suddenly be in consideration, but I still doubt it. Augustana is almost certainly going to get to host stuff again, and there's no way an undefeated Benedictine would get left out of hosting. The Cardinals wouldn't get sent back to Rock Island again unless it was for the sectionals, but I could see getting stuck at Benedictine or maybe St. Norbert as a possibility, with an outside shot of having to trek to Ohio to, say, Marietta or John Carroll. That first scenario of having to travel down Maple Avenue seems like the most likely one, at least for right now. While there are some doubts about it from guys like Dave McHugh, I can't help but fear a Group of Death looming here... though the Cardinals were able to make a Final Four run in 2013 out of that group.
Of course, there are still a lot of games left to play, especially the conference tournaments. Knowing how sports tend to work, there will be some semblance of chaos over the next two weeks. Hopefully the Cardinals are either the ones avoiding it or causing it.
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