North Central and the NCAA Regional Rankings: Week 1 Edition

We're getting down to the nitty gritty part of the season, and so for the second straight year I'm doing an additional portion of coverage beyond my normal game notes.

We're about two weeks away from the CCIW Tournament, which means we're only three weeks out from March Madness kicking off at the Division III level. It is at this stage where the NCAA releases a set of regional rankings on both the men's and women's sides to get an idea of who the top teams are and where they stand from a regional standpoint to help get a picture of the national tournament.

The NCAA does this today, and will release two more sets in the coming weeks before doing a fourth, secret ranking that will go into deciding the NCAA Tournament field. The public rankings, however, are still good for speculation about chances for teams. So, with that in mind, let's take a look at North Central's rankings.

Women's Basketball

Record: 11-11 overall, 5-6 CCIW (T-5th)
Central Region: Unranked (out of 9 teams)

It's a bummer to say, but this Cardinal team is down compared to last year. This has been a very streaky team, but they've also suffered from some bad luck over the course of the season (Exhibit A: Liz Rehberger morphing into Steph Curry). Even with that, they're just a game out of the CCIW Tournament with three to play, and all three are, at least in theory, winnable games. Part of that is the parity in the CCIW this year; it's been a wonky season overall with our top two teams each having three conference losses. Wheaton has the regular season sweep and thus the tiebreaker over Illinois Wesleyan, but they've lost to Augustana, Elmhurst, and North Park. Granted, all three were on the road, and the latter two teams would make the CCIW Tournament if the season ended today, but after being the unanimous preseason favorite, returning pretty much their entire roster from last year's CCIW champions, to have three losses already is a little jarring.

Nonetheless, the Thunder are currently ranked 7th in the Central Region, the only CCIW school to appear this week. They sit behind a bastion of WIAC schools, Wash U of St. Louis and Concordia-Wisconsin. Westminster (Missouri) and St. Norbert round out the Central region.

With 11 losses, there's no way the Cardinals are going to sneak their way into the regional rankings to end the season unless all these other teams fall off a cliff and the Cardinals shoot 50-plus percent from beyond the arc over their final three games to sneak into third place in the conference. An at large bid was all but a certainty last season, it's not happening this year. The only way in for the Cardinals is to get the CCIW's automatic bid... which means exorcising the Wheaton demons. The Cardinals have played Wheaton tough this year, but still haven't been able to get over the hump. It's doable... it just requires a perfect game to do so.

Men's Basketball

Record: 16-6 overall, 9-2 CCIW (T-2nd)
Central Region: 4th (out of 8 teams)

The North Central men were ranked in each of the regional polls last year, but were one of the first teams out of the NCAA Tournament after they lost to Augustana in the CCIW Tournament semifinals. Last year did see three CCIW teams make the Dance, with Illinois Wesleyan and Elmhurst earning at-large bids. The Titans went 18-7 in the regular season last year while the Blue Jays finished at 19-6. Wesleyan had a 10-4 mark in the CCIW while Elmhurst finished 9-5. This year, the three headed monster of Augustana, Elmhurst and North Central have a combined five CCIW losses between them, all to each other.

There's good and bad news with the Cardinals. The good news is that they have the toughest schedule in the country, and a 16-6 mark with that factor makes their record look really good. The bad news is the fact that they have those six losses, which is a lot for an at large team. However, there were nine at large berths given last year to teams with at least six losses including four with seven losses and two with eight (including the aforementioned CCIW teams). Then, when you look further at who the Cardinals have lost to, there aren't any "bad" losses per se: one was at home to a previously-ranked Chicago team (now unranked), one at an unranked Aurora team (that is receiving votes on D3hoops.com), and then come the completely understandable ones: at #13 Alma, at home by two against #2 Benedictine (who, by the way, is undefeated and went 5-0 against CCIW foes in their non-conference slate), and a pair of losses against #1 Augustana. That last point hurts their cause a fair amount, especially the loss at Augie where the Cardinals fell behind 33-2. North Central does have good wins though against #9 Elmhurst, #23 Mount Union and defending national champion UW-Stevens Point, all at home. Fact is, they've beaten the teams they're supposed to beat, but they've struggled a bit against other good teams, especially on the road.

Overall then, their spot in the Central Region makes sense. I figured Benedictine and Augie would be 1-2 in some order. St. Norbert, who has destroyed the Midwest Conference this season and has two losses (at Stevens Point and versus Alma) being ahead of the Cardinals is also justifiable. I'm honestly surprised though that the Cardinals got the bump ahead of Elmhurst, but between the head to head victory and the Cardinals' strength of schedule being worlds ahead of the Blue Jays, it makes sense. North Central is also ahead of two teams that beat them in Aurora and Chicago, but North Central has a better record than Chicago, and has a better result than both of Aurora's matchups against Benedictine, to go along with the aforementioned strength of schedule.

I glanced nationally at the strength of schedule of everybody, and North Central is second in the country in that department behind Emory in Atlanta, currently in first place in the UAA, and they're only two hundredths of a point ahead. The closest competitor to the Cardinals, meanwhile, is Stevens Point, but even they're a tenth of a point back. This really helps. On the flip side though, one category the NCAA will look at, but hasn't yet, is record against regionally ranked opponents. It doesn't factor into Week 1 rankings, but will next week... and that's where the Cardinals might be in trouble. They're currently 2-6 against regionally ranked foes with Saturday's Elmhurst game looming. This could drag the Cardinals down a little bit.

Obviously, there's one easy way into the NCAA Tournament for North Central: win the CCIW Tournament. They've already locked up a bid, but have three tough road games ahead of them to close out the season, and despite my earlier skepticism, I think I now share Coach Raridon's disdain with the scheduling. If it comes down to an at large bid, however, the Cardinals are in pretty good shape given their initial ranking and their strength of schedule. It remains to be seen though how their record against regionally ranked opponents will come into play and whether the fact that all six losses so far are to these aforementioned opponents hurts their cause. There are 19 spots to fill, however, and if the Cardinals can stay around this spot, they have a pretty good chance of taking one should the automatic bid not work out.