Through four weeks, I've been consistently about on pace with a coin flip. It's about what one would expect trying to pick stuff like this, even though last year I paced a 9-7 record every week. Adam, on the other hand, has been on a roller coaster. He posted double digit wins in Weeks 1 and 3, but those have been offset by double digit losses in Weeks 2 and 4. He told me when he sent in his picks, "I am shooting for 13/15 this week as that is how my mini trend is going."
We saw our biggest disparity yet last week, but the streak of sweeps is over. Adam was bailed out by the Chiefs dominating/the Patriots being awful to salvage the final contested pick of the week after only one of our consensus picks panned out. I've moved back into first place overall in the group (with help from a leader forgetting half of the week's games), with Adam in second and the records aligning as though we'd disagreed on every game thus far.
This week, we bump up to 15 games from last week's 13, as Oakland and Miami get a week to recover from the jet lag and time zone disparity from London. It's a weird week overall, because the initial ESPN lines have only two home underdogs. Adam and I disagree on five games this time. Will his pattern repeat into Week 5? Let's find out.
Thursday Night
Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers (-9.5)
Lucas: Packers. Even if it's healing well, Teddy with a potentially bum ankle could mean trouble. Sure, the Vikings can probably run on the Packers all day, but I think Aaron Rodgers was right when he said the team would be fine.
Lucas note: ...Shots. Fired. Sir. But yes, should be a good game.
Sunday, Early Afternoon
Atlanta Falcons @ New York Giants (-3.5)
Lucas: Falcons. Not ready to anoint the Giants as the "Whoa, look out!" team of 2014 yet. But I'm watching closely. They do tend to sneak up on people...
Adam: Falcons. Look for Eli to return to form this week… 3 INT.
Buffalo Bills @ Detroit Lions (-7.5)
Lucas: Bills. I'm not sure if Kyle Orton is the answer here. But Stafford has made some mistakes here and there, and that might be enough to swing a backdoor cover this week...
Adam: Bills. I hate to say this, but the Lions seem like the team to beat right now in the NFC North. Though the Bills may have a chance to win outright since they will be improving their QB by about 250%* (low-ball estimate, actual result will be higher) just by starting Orton. Besides, tell me Orton doesn’t look like Horton.
Chicago Bears @ Carolina Panthers (-2.5)
Lucas: Bears. Carolina's running backs are hurt, and I think the Bears secondary is just glad they aren't seeing number 12 in green and gold in the offensive backfield again for a few weeks. Which is too bad because that was fun.
Adam: Bears. The Bears are 2-0 on the road and 0-2 at home…who would have thought that? Anyway, I see Smoking Jay (as Lucas would say) to come back in a big way this week on the road.
Lucas note: While apparently Rodgers has a line signal that's a tribute to Smokin' Jay Cutler (and I think this is hilarious, true or not), I do have another preference.
PUUUUUUUUUUUUURRRRRRRRRRRRRREEEEEEEEEE JAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY!!!!!!!
— Lucas Mitzel (@northsider89) September 28, 2014
Cleveland Browns @ Tennessee Titans (-2.5)Lucas: Browns. Tennessee has shown nothing pretty much after Week 1. I'm just not sure whether this week is Shingeki no Jake Locker or Shingeki no Charlie Whitehurst. You know what? The hell with it.
Adam: Titans. Is this the week we may see Johnny Football… I am still high on Sankey, didn’t quite hit his line last week, but certainly a good effort and should see more work as the season moves on.
Houston Texans @ Dallas Cowboys (-4.5)
Lucas: Cowboys. We live in a world where Jerry Jones' team is actually competent. Football is a weird sport. Also, a fun fact: JJ Watt is tied for 40th in total touchdowns and tied for 72nd in total points. He has more touchdowns than guys like Desean Jackson, AJ Green and LeSean McCoy. Yep, football is a weird sport.
Adam: Cowboys. Many of the people in Texas may die this weekend. You got Friday night lights for HS, you got A&M and Miss St (top 25 match-up), TCU and OK (another top 25 match-up), and Texas and Baylor on Sat and then this on Sunday… hide the women and children, this is going to be crazy.
Baltimore Ravens @ Indianapolis Colts (-3.5)
Lucas: Colts. Maybe it's me, but I don't think Luck is putting up 40+ again. Even so, I'm not betting against the Colts at home.
Adam: Colts. Honestly I think this is a good line for this game, I could flip a coin and be happy with either team… it was heads BTW.
St. Louis Rams @ Philadelphia Eagles (-7.5)
Lucas: Eagles. Against a not-quite-as-good-as-last-week's defense, the Iggles can actually manage to not look like LSU in January of 2012 for 55 minutes.
Adam: Rams. The Rams have impressed… oh, and have I mentioned I do not like Foles?
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New Orleans Saints (-10.5)
Lucas: Buccaneers. As much as I think a return to the Superdome will cure some pains the Saints have had... my goodness, Rob Ryan's pass defense is terrible. Take the points.
Adam: Buccaneers. Taking the points, but I could easily see this game get out of hand in NO favor very quickly.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Jacksonville Jaguars (+6.5)
Lucas: Steelers. I'm still not high on Pittsburgh, but unless the Jags are giving like 20 points again, I'm not picking them.
Adam: Steelers. Bortles for a break out game. But not really sure who he is going to throw too.
Sunday, Late Afternoon
Arizona Cardinals @ Denver Broncos (-7.5)
Lucas: Cardinals. Even if Carson Palmer isn't quite ready to go again and Denver is at home... isn't 7.5 points a lot to give a tough defense? Or will Denver's crowd be so rowdy that Darnell Dockett will offer a reward again?
Adam: Broncos. I see a blowout in the making here… here is my prediction for the week. Manning 35 of 45 for 400+ and 4TDs (3 passing, 1 rushing).
Adam note: I would say I am 2.5-1.5 this year on my predictions, I’m giving myself a ½ point last week on Sankey.
Lucas note: Fair enough. But is the Peyton rushing touchdown coming before or after the passing ones? Because he'd probably get killed running for a tuddy against these guys.
Kansas City Chiefs @ San Francisco 49ers (-7.5)
Lucas: Chiefs. I don't think Jamaal Charles runs as wild as he did against New England. I'm still not totally sold on the Niners, though. Also, the NFL owes Hussain Abdullah a makeup call.
Adam: 49ers.Yes, Charles finally had a solid game, almost went for 4 TDs, and the 49ers just scraped by the Eagles, but I think the 49ers are going to have a solid game.
New York Jets @ San Diego Chargers (-7.5)
Lucas: Chargers. A completely depleted rushing attack against the best run defense in the league... good thing Phillip Rivers has been phenomenal so far!
Adam: Chargers. The Jets have a solid run D to shut down… never mind, SD does not have any running backs. Look for Rivers, Allen and crew to light up the Jets secondary.
Sunday Night
Cincinnati Bengals @ New England Patriots (-2.5)
Lucas: Bengals. Darth Hoodie's empire might be on the decline, and a struggling Tom Brady gets no gifts against a great defense. I'd probably still pick New England were this game in December though.
Adam: Bengals. Oh Brady. *shake head in disappointment* AARP is wanting a response to their inquiry of if you want to join or not. Please respond as soon as possible.
Monday Night
Seattle Seahawks @ Washington Redskins (+7.5)
Lucas: Seahawks. Kirk Cousins... meet the Legion of Boom.
Records So Far
Lucas: 32-29 (8-5 last week)
Adam: 29-32 (2-11 last week)
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