COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em Week 4

The eve of Week 4 is upon us, and with it, another post for the COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em contest. This week though, the byes have begun. Six teams are off this week, so we only have 13 games to cover this week.

We had a historical moment last week as well. Through two seasons, there had never been a sweep among differentiated games between our featured pickers. In Week 2, I swept those three games. Last week, Adam got revenge and swept all four of our contested games. As such, he has retaken the lead. But with so much time left in the season, that can flip back on its head.

It's definitely possible this week, as Adam and I see our biggest disparity yet. We disagree on a whopping eight of the 13 games on this week's slate. Let's see which games we actually find common ground on.

Thursday Night

New York Giants @ Washington Redskins (-3.5)
Lucas: Redskins. Kirk Cousins looking good? Kirk Cousins looking good. Sadly, we probably won't see as hyped up a Desean Jackson this week.
Adam: Redskins. Really…Cousins goes for 400+, probably won’t be able to do that again but I still think it will be a Redskins win. I mean, Eli is usually good for 2.5 INT's per game.

Sunday, Early Afternoon

Buffalo Bills @ Houston Texans (-2.5)
Lucas: Texans. I guess the Bills used up all their goodwill from keeping the team there/Jim Kelly being cancer free in their home opener.
Adam: Bills. Not sure how both of these teams are 2-1. Bills got a gift in Week 1, and the Texans are the beneficiaries of playing Oakland in Week 2. Maybe someone can remind Fitzpatrick that he is a QB and throw the ball

Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears (+0.5)
Lucas: Packers. Ugh, I really do not feel good about this pick based on how Green Bay played last week. But the defense has stepped up in the past six quarters, and Pure Jay is still Pure Jay. LET'S DO THIS, AARON!

Lucas note: If I expand that list to all quarterbacks and sort by picks, Jay is 1st... and 2nd... and 12th-14th... and 37th-39th...
Adam: Bears. Only because Lucas will be picking the Packers.

Adam note: This does not imply I would pick the Packers if Lucas were not a GB fan.
Lucas note: We do these picks individually, and Adam sends me his when they're done. So he had no way of knowing I picked Green Bay other than knowing that I'm an unabashed homer. Go Pack Go.

Detroit Lions @ New York Jets (+1.5)
Lucas: Lions. In back to back weeks, I've watched the opposition suffer a bad timeout and now a player destroying his knee celebrating a sack. THAT'S WHAT YOU GET, STEPHEN TULLOCH.

Adam: Lions. Lions look like a solid team and were victorious last week in a gritty game. I sit Bell and Bush this week from a fantasy perspective but fire up Stafford and any and all WR's.

Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts (-7.5)
Lucas: Colts. While I'm pretty sure we're not going to see the shellacking the Jags got last week, do you really think the Colts are going to let themselves be in a position to fall to 1-3, especially at home?
Adam: Titans. Upset special here. Yes, the Colts tore apart a pitiful Jags team last week and the Titans are only a little better, but I think the Titans will finally realize they have a great runner in Sankey – footwork or not. (Prediction: 20-100-2).
Lucas note: I'm learning not to doubt his predictions. After pretty much nailing Aaron Rodgers' Week 2 line (off by 4 measly yards), he was right about Julio Jones last week. Not as much about Philly's running backs, but I'll let him off the hook for now. Check this line on Sunday.

Miami Dolphins vs Oakland Raiders (+4.5)
Lucas: Dolphins. I'm pretty sure the last time a group of Raiders came from overseas to London, they were hanged...
Adam: Raiders. Fins beat NE, Oakland played NE close last week, I think OAK has a chance.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-7.5)
Lucas: Steelers. My high school history teacher was notorious for handing out detentions (I once got one for "existing in his chair and breathing his air"), and had several in his desk that already had names on them. I wonder if Roger Goodell has some fine slips still in his desk with James Harrison's name on them... maybe next to the second elevator tape...
Adam: Steelers. How about Bell to Roethlisberger for a tuddy this week…seems to be the new thing to hand off and then throw to the QB.  And besides, who wouldn’t love to see Big Ben rumble in for a receiving TD.

Carolina Panthers @ Baltimore Ravens (-3.5)
Lucas: Panthers. Baltimore needed a miracle (seemingly) to beat Cleveland. I'm not ready to write Carolina off yet.
Adam: Panthers. I think we will finally see a Carolina defense that I have expected all season… Besides, I am out of Rice jokes, so…

Sunday, Late Afternoon

Jacksonville Jaguars @ San Diego Chargers (-13.5)
Lucas: Chargers. Doesn't really matter if it's Bortles or Henne. Think about how bad Jacksonville was at home last week. Phillip Rivers, have a day. 
Adam: Jaguars. With Bortles under center (presumably) this week, and SD's backfield shaken up with some nasty injuries, I think this will be a much closer game than it appears on paper.  SD wins by a TD, but Jags cover.  

Atlanta Falcons @ Minnesota Vikings (+3.5)
Lucas: Falcons. I'd say let me on the Teddy Bridgewater hype train, but Minnesota's defense doesn't exactly scare me, and Atlanta has put up a ton of points. Also, Devin Hester is still ridiculous.

Adam: Falcons. Ryan to have another field day…that is all. Oh and props to former Bear Devin Hester for breaking the all-time return TD record last week.

Philadelphia Eagles @ San Francisco 49ers (-5.5)
Lucas: Eagles. Let's see. A team that has overcome double digit deficits every week against a team that has seen second half collapses in back to back weeks? Admiral Kelly's crew will be pleased.

Adam: 49ers. San Fran hits pay dirt this week. Coming off a bad loss to the Bears 2 weeks ago and a tough loss last week to Arizona. I do not like the Eagles chances. And like I said in Week 1, I just do not like Foles.

Sunday Night

New Orleans Saints @ Dallas Cowboys (+3.5)
Lucas: Cowboys. You've seen how bad the Saints defense is, right? Give me the home dog to be down three when Romo throws a stupid pick late, seeing as we haven't had any of those yet. But up until then... my God, the yards.
Adam: Saints. I am not surprised one team is 2-1 and the other 1-2, I just thought it would be the other way around… Romo for a 4th Quarter F up…(Using Marv Albert’s voice)YES!

Lucas note: Quick recap: we set the over/under on "Game-winning drives Romo F's up this year for Dallas" at 3.5. I took the under, Adam took the over.

Monday Night

New England Patriots @ Kansas City Chiefs (+3.5)
Lucas: Patriots. Give KC a tougher schedule and you see them for who they really are: not very good.
Adam: Chiefs. Charles coming off a very slow start and a Week 3 injury, I look to have him blow it up. Besides, Brady clearly has not been told the season has started; he is spending too much time with his hotty Gisele – and who can blame him…

Records So Far
Lucas: 24-24 (8-8 last week)
Adam: 27-21 (12-4 last week)