2014 Death to the BCS Playoffs: Week 8 Edition

From the ashes of some schools' football seasons, ariseth a playoff.

This is the third mock bracket that I've been able to build, and we're getting to the point where it's harder and harder to build a playoff field. Only four teams remain unbeaten after eight weeks of action. This means that we're going to have 12 teams with at least one loss in the field. But how do we decide who makes it over whom?

The answer: a selection committee... okay, just me. But I have tools at my disposal to help build the field. I will utilize up-to-date NCSS and Playoff Points information that I've been gathering over the past two months to help frame that decision. I'm also using computer rankings to help frame the field. The late David Rothman made his formula public knowledge, but the UCLA staff member who compiled it last season still hasn't run the numbers for this year yet. Jeff Sagarin, on the other hand, has his numbers calculated already. I will use his "Rating" (the number in purple) as the rankings labeled below.

Each team will be seeded 1-16, with home field advantage going to the higher seeds for the first three rounds. Obviously, this gives regular season success more weight than the current system does. Each team will be listed by seed, and includes their NCSS and both degrees of Playoff Points, as well as the Sagarin rankings. Their seeding is organically decided by a combinated of these four metrics, plus actual win-loss record. At the end of each line was the team's seeding in last week's bracket.

Enough talk. Let's seed.

1. Ole Miss (7-0, SEC "Champion"): NCSS- 3, PP1- 27, PP2- 10.1, SAG- 1 (LW: 2)
2. Mississippi State (6-0, At Large): NCSS- 4, PP1- 27, PP2- 10.3, SAG- 4 (LW: 1) 
3. Florida State (7-0, ACC "Champion"): NCSS- 2, PP1- 25, PP2- 9.1, SAG- 10 (LW: 3)
4. Alabama (6-1, At Large): NCSS- 4, PP1- 22, PP2- 8.8, SAG- 2 (LW: NR)
5. Auburn (5-1, At Large): NCSS- 5, PP1- 21, PP2- 10.6, SAG- 3 (LW: 7) 
6. Marshall (7-0, Conference USA "Champion"): NCSS- 4, PP1- 20, PP2- 5.6, SAG- 31 (LW: 5)
7. Oregon (6-1, At Large): NCSS- 2, PP1- 21, PP2- 10.2, SAG- 9 (LW: 11)  
8. Michigan State (6-1, Big Ten "Champion"): NCSS-4, PP1- 19, PP2- 6.8, SAG- 11 (LW: 8)
9. Notre Dame (6-1, At Large): NCSS- 14, PP1- 19, PP2- 7.5, SAG- 15 (LW: 4) 
10. USC (5-2, Pac 12 "Champion"): NCSS- 4, PP1- 18, PP2- 9.0, SAG- 19 (LW: 9)
11. Arizona (5-1, At Large): NCSS- 4, PP1- 18, PP2- 8.8, SAG- 28 (LW: 10)
12. Kansas State (5-1, Big 12 "Champion"): NCSS- 2, PP1- 13, PP2- 7.4, SAG- 14 (LW: NR)
13. Boise State (5-2, Mountain West "Champion"): NCSS- 5, PP1- 17, PP2- 6.8, SAG- 43 (LW: NR)
14. East Carolina (5-1, American Athletic "Champion"): NCSS- 7, PP1- 10, PP2- 4.6, SAG- 39 (LW: 13)
15. Toledo (4-3, MAC "Champion"): NCSS- 6, PP1- 10, PP2- 6.0, SAG- 68 (LW: NR)
16. Georgia Southern (5-2, Sun Belt "Champion"): NCSS- 5, PP1- 9, PP2- 1.8, SAG- 77 (LW: 16)

Out of the playoffs: Baylor (6), Oklahoma (12), Utah State (14), Bowling Green (15)

Photo by Kelly Presnell (Arizona Daily Star)

Four conference champions changed hands this week, though that only dropped three teams out (I swapped the Mississippi's in the SEC). I then had the unenviable task of trying to decide on at-large berths. In addition to the teams I had in last week, I looked at the eight other one-loss teams that didn't make the Week 7 field. Of those, Georgia has the biggest gripe for missing out (19 First Degree Playoff Points, 8.7 Second Degree Playoff Points, 5th in Sagarin's rankings), but looking at their resume, they haven't defeated a playoff team (Arizona has a win over Oregon on theirs, so the Wildcats earned the last berth).

It was really tempting to have all but one of my at-large berths come from the SEC though (Notre Dame, despite the loss to FSU, is the only other one that was a lock when I put this together). Baylor's loss was tough, but they don't have anywhere near the resume or the Playoff Points to deserve a spot after the loss. Oklahoma's second loss is tough, but my lowest PP1 of an at-large team is Arizona's 18, and Oklahoma only has 16. TCU also only has 16, and since they lost to Baylor, I can't put them in over the Bears. Minnesota has a good argument with 17 First Degree Playoff Points, but they don't have a win over a playoff team, and their loss was to the aforementioned TCU.

Photo uncredited

I was worried that I would have a rematch problem, something I'd like to avoid in Round 1 if possible, and I couldn't build a scenario where I didn't have one. Oregon has a first round home date based on their resume, but Arizona has a legitimate gripe, having beaten them already and being seeded 11th. Originally, they were going to have a rematch, but I seeded Marshall above Oregon, citing their undefeated record as the primary rationale. Auburn-Kansas State was unavoidable (I feel like I can't take Marshall over Auburn right now), but the game would be at Auburn, so their regular season game is validated in that the winner gets to host.

Overall, I'm pretty happy with how this turned out. At most, we're only going to have three undefeated teams when the season is finished (the Egg Bowl between Ole Miss and Mississippi State will knock off one of the four), and those three would likely make the College Football Playoff. I feel a little dirty giving the SEC four of the top five spots, and thus two home games for three of them, plus the fact that were I on the selection committee for the College Football Playoff, I'd be voting in three SEC teams. There's a lot of football left to play, though, and after a combined ten teams getting bumped from brackets from one week to another (even though Toledo is a reentry), I'm convinced more chaos will ensue in the next month-plus, causing more changes. That's the fun part of all this though.

Week 9 begins tomorrow, both on-field and on COAS. Tomorrow morning I'll have a look at your Week 9 non-conference schedules!