"Noboby Believes In Us!"- An NCC Basketball Preview

2012-2013 was, by most accounts, a successful year for North Central College in its athletic pursuits. They added a 30th national championship as the men's cross country team added another title to its illustrious history. They added six other conference titles, plus a conference tournament title, as well as making some noise in multiple championship tournaments and competitions. The basketball court saw plenty of success, as both the men's and women's teams improved from the prior year and made a lot of memories. They have a great chance to make more noise and more memories this coming season. Yet it seems like I'm the only one who isn't technically a member of any of the teams who thinks so.


Women's Basketball
Last Year: 13-13 (6-8, 4th in CCIW), lost in CCIW Tournament Semifinals.

2012-13 was something of a transitional year for third-year head coach Michelle Roof. The Lady Cardinals spent the offseason working on a new team philosophy and a totally new system under top assistant coach Doug Porter. The team caught on and probably didn't quite reach their potential last season, but were a very entertaining (and simultaneously nerve-wracking) team to watch. It all resulted in a 13-12 regular season, the first time the program had had at least a .500 season since 2004-05 and a trip to Kenosha for the CCIW Tournament. Their journey ended there against Carthage in the opening round, but not without a fight.

I had a chance to stop by Merner in late October to say hello to Coach Roof and talk about the upcoming season. It was the same day the preseason coaches poll came out, and we were in agreement on one thing: nobody on the outside believes in this team! She told me she felt that people were thinking last year's Cardinal team was a fluke, or lightning in a bottle, or worse, that they didn't respect the program or the philosophy. We both feel different. This year's team should be way better!

Let's talk some numbers. Last year, the Cardinals were the top scoring team in the nation, averaging 87.7 point per game (and only D-II's Glenville State scored more points per game). Granted, the Cardinals also gave up 89 points a game, probably one of the worst marks in the NCAA, but such is the byproduct of a system where you sell out on trapping in the backcourt. While Coach Roof doesn't think it will have much of an impact, I think the addition of the 10-second rule to the women's game this year will add to NCC's crazy rate of forcing turnovers by maybe a couple a game.

More so, I look at the offense. I was thrilled last year when Coach Roof told me she was planning on 45 attempted three's a game. As a PA announcer who thrives on the home team making threes, I felt like Gus Johnson during March Madness. Unfortunately, the Cardinals shot just 26.6% from deep last season. More distressing to me though was 65.7% free throw rate. Free throws can be improved, and I'm hoping those numbers rise a little closer to 70 percent. I'm also not that worried about the threes. Of the over 1100 treys launched by Cardinal snipers last year, a lot of those were wide open looks. If you give them even a modest increase to 28% for this season, that's about an extra three per game. With some of the lower-percentage shooters not on the team this year, I don't think it's too unreasonable to think maybe 30 percent from deep. That should win them a couple extra ball games.

The Cardinals return nine players from last year's roster, eight of whom played in almost every game (forward Erica Buck basically missed all of CCIW play last year), and only one is a senior. This team will probably rotate through basically the whole roster again this season, but they're probably going to count heavily on major contributors like Bobbi Johns (5.3 ppg, but a team-leading 54 steals) and Kim Wilson (6.7 ppg, but 31% from deep, 74% at the line, and about a steal per game). They also got a late addition to the roster in junior transfer Tess Godhardt, formerly of Elmhurst and a double-figure scorer in her two years there.

I do think the key to this Cardinal team though, especially when the outside shots aren't falling, is definitely Larynn Shumaker. Larynn led the team in scoring (13.1) and rebounding (5.3), and shot 52% from the floor last year. She has some of the best footwork in the post that I've ever seen and has the strength and finesse to find open looks around the basket. I don't think it's out of reach to see her numbers rise to 15 points and 55% shooting this year, maybe even higher, depending on her minutes.

There's also a lot of youth on this team (eight freshmen), almost all of whom should get immediate playing time in the line-change system. How quickly these girls gel together with the existing core will be a major factor in how the non-conference slate (which isn't too terrible) goes, and should answer a lot of questions as to how well they will survive the gauntlet. I do still think Wheaton and Wesleyan are the teams to beat in the conference (Carthage is the unanimous favorite, and four of their starters return from last year, but watching them last year, plus listening to the tournament game... they don't scare me), but I could easily see North Central battling for one of those last two conference tournament spots. "Nobody Believes in Us!" is a powerful force. Don't sleep on the Cardinals.

COAS Prediction: 14-11, 8-6 (4th in CCIW), who knows from there?

Men's Basketball
Last Year: 28-4 (11-3, 2nd in CCIW), CCIW Tournament Champions, advanced to NCAA Final Four

I got a chance to say hello to coach Todd Raridon as well before the start of the season and iterated the same point to him the same day the men's Coaches Poll came out. The Cardinals are picked to finish fourth in the conference, which at a glance seems like heresy, but there is a context here that makes it make sense.

The team is still ranked #6 in the nation by D3Hoops.com coming into the campaign, and based on their finish last year it's a pretty well deserved ranking. The team ends up losing out on two of its best four players in Derek Raridon and Aaron Tiknis to graduation. It's hard to replace a good scorer (Raridon) and a key defense/rebounding/threes/energy guy (Tiknis) when they were key cogs in a deep run, but this team still has a lot of its key players. It also hurts to lose backup big man Charlie Rosenberg. Even with those losses, a lot of major people still remain.

The two best guys on the team are your senior leaders in Vince Kmiec and Landon Gamble, a perfect inside-outside tandem. Gamble is a decent defender, but the First Team All-American commands a double team at all times and is all but automatic in the post. Kmiec, meanwhile, is a career 33% shooter from beyond the arc and will bury any open looks you give him, but he's also an opportunist. He broke the school record with 67 steals last year and only needs 15 to break the all time record, something he should do before conference play starts.

These guys have plenty of help still. Jacks Burchett and Merrithey (aka "Big Jack" and "Little Jack", respectively) return to help do some of the little things, and there are enough experienced pieces around that guys can step into vacated shoes.

What encourages me though was in talking to Coach Raridon, he hadn't looked at the poll at that point. I broke down the numbers, and he and son/assistant coach Mitch Raridon started poring over rosters, coming to the conclusion that of the teams ranked ahead of NCC (mainstays Wheaton, Illinois Wesleyan, and Augustana) had lost their experienced post threats this year. That's not to say there won't be freshman/transfer surprises, but he seemed optimistic that those deaprtures open up the lane to guys like Gamble.

I do think a slight step back will be taken, but this team could surprise me. They've won two straight CCIW Tournaments, and only lost a total of 7 conference games in the last three years. They'll be back in the conference tournament this year for sure, and it wouldn't surprise me if Merner got to host for the third time in four years. After that, we could see another deep run by these guys.

COAS Prediction: 20-5, 11-3 (2nd in CCIW), CCIW Tournament Champions, Deep tournament run