COAS/SSLYAR Pigskin Pick 'Em Week 10

We're officially past the halfway point of the NFL season, or as former Bears coach Lovie Smith would say, "We're in the third quarter of our season... we like our team... Luke is our quarterback... we have a lot of football left to play." Did I mention I miss Lovie?

Anyway, Nathaniel and I are back at the NFL picks against the spread this week. There are 14 more games on this week's slate, and recently we've displayed a decent amount of groupthink. Of course, last week I won both the games we disagreed on to expand my lead a tad, but still. This week, we disagree on half of the matchups, so Nathaniel can narrow my lead quite a bit by the time Veterans Day rolls around. Even with that though, there's a fair amount of groupthink though, since our rationales on a lot of the games we agree on do overlap. Anyway, onto the picks.

Thursday Night
Washington Redskins @ Minnesota Vikings (+2.5)
Lucas: Redskins. In a battle of two bad defenses, who do you trust? The team with the better quarterback? Good call.
Nathaniel: Redskins. Christian Ponder on three days’ rest sounds like a recipe for disaster.

Sunday, Early Afternoon
Seattle Seahawks @ Atlanta Falcons (+6.5)
Lucas: Falcons. I know Atlanta has played like crap this year, but the past couple weeks Seattle has looked incredibly mortal. Throw in the fact that this is not only not in Seattle, but in Atlanta, and I'm taking the points.
Nathaniel: Seahawks. The one thing the Falcons have been doing well this year – throwing the ball – has completed stopped working the past two weeks and Seattle’s the best team in the league against the pass anyway.

Buffalo Bills @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5)
Lucas: Bills. EJ Manuel is cleared to play. I'd assume he knows better than to throw a wide open pick-6 a la Jeff Tuel.

Nathaniel: Bills. What was more shocking last week: that the Steelers gave up 55 points or that THIS particular Patriots offense was the one that did it to them?

Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears (-2.5)
Lucas: Lions. Yeah, winning up at Lambeau is great and all, but even if Jay Cutler is back, I'd worry about that defense. Matt Stafford is if nothing else a slight upgrade from a totally unprepared, thrown into the fire Seneca Wallace.
Nathaniel: Bears. Like the first Bears-Lions matchup this season, a head over heart pick. Hoping this one goes better than that one did!

Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens (+1.5)
Lucas: Bengals. I know this is in Baltimore, but I feel like we're due for some Ginger Revenge from Andy Dalton after losing on a safety in overtime.
Nathaniel: Ravens. Geno Atkins is a huge loss and the Ravens know they still have a shot with five home games in the second half if they can come away with a win here.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Green Bay Packers (-0.5)
Lucas: Packers. The optimist in me thinks Green Bay can tread water in November (and maybe into December) with Seneca Wallace or whoever, especially this week against a crappy defense. The pessimist in me will probably spend the next eight weeks doing this.

Nathaniel: Eagles. Continuing in the long and proud lineage of Packer starting quarterbacks is…Seneca Wallace? Uh-oh.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tennessee Titans (-13.5)
Lucas: Jaguars. Maybe I'm crazy and Chris Johnson goes off. I feel like Tennessee is at a level where I should take the points. Then again, maybe I'm influenced by the wonder that is Clarence Beeftank.

Nathaniel: Jaguars. Big line for a team that doesn’t usually score that many points to cover.

St. Louis Rams @ Indianapolis Colts (-10.5)
Lucas: Colts. Maybe a chance for Andrew Luck to catch up on his non-4th-quarter/overtime-comeback wins this week! I mean, the man has 10 of the comeback wins and 7 others. Things have to even out at some point, right?
Nathaniel: Rams. St. Louis has done a good job of keeping games close the past two weeks without Sam Bradford and I don’t know if Indianapolis has enough firepower to cover a double-digit line over a good defense without Reggie Wayne.

Oakland Raiders @ New York Giants (-7.5)
Lucas: Raiders. Darn it, I hate this game. Oakland's secondary is so bad they could be prone to giving up seven touchdown passes again. But Eli is on pace for a 30-interception season. So tough. I don't know. Take the points.
Nathaniel: Raiders. True, Oakland made Nick Foles look like Johnny Unitas last week, but out of principle I just can’t pick this year’s Giants to cover a 7.5 spread over anyone not named Jacksonville. It’s borderline lunacy.

Sunday, Late Afternoon
Carolina Panthers @ San Francisco 49ers (-6.5)
Lucas: Panthers. Okay, yeah, it's been against crappy competition, but Carolina has kicked it up a couple notches and Ron Rivera suddenly learned you don't always have to kick on 4th down, especially 4th and short. Maybe not a full fledged upset, but a closer game than you'd think.
Nathaniel: Panthers. Probably the best matchup of the week, if not the most important game. Carolina has quietly kicked a lot of tucus the past four games.

Denver Broncos @ San Diego Chargers (+7.5)
Lucas: Broncos. I don't want to say San Diego blew the Washington game, but... it was a game you could argue they should have won. Throw in them playing Denver and a "FoxStrong" angle and I'll take the favorite. Get well soon, John.
Nathaniel: Broncos. With Von Miller in, the Broncos’ defense has been light years better and there’s literally no reason to believe the Chargers can even slow down Peyton and Co. a little.

Houston Texans @ Arizona Cardinals (-2.5)
Lucas: Texans. Likewise here, I'm playing a belated "Win It For Kubiak!" angle here. Get well soon, Gary.
Nathaniel: Cardinals. Fun fact: if the Cardinals take care of business like they should here, they’ll be 5-4. That’s kinda sorta a playoff contender’s record! If only they didn’t still have to play Seattle and San Francisco yet this year.

Sunday Night
Dallas Cowboys @ New Orleans Saints (-6.5)
Lucas: Cowboys. At first I thought this was lunacy, given the presumed disparity between these teams (namely, Jimmy Graham is probably drooling at the thought of facing Dallas's defense). Then I remembered the Jets took care of business against the Saints and it's Tony Romo in November. History tends to repeat itself.
Nathaniel: Saints. It’s almost as if Vegas thinks the Cowboys are actually half-decent by putting up this low of a spread in the Superdome. SPOILER ALERT: the Cowboys are not actually half-decent. This feels like a complete blowout’s about to happen.

Monday Night
Miami Dolphins @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+2.5)
Lucas: Dolphins. The quadrennial South Florida Bowl, aka the "Which Franchise Is In a Worse State" Bowl. It's kind of a tossup there. I just hope poor Jon Gruden finds enough good things to sing praises about to avoid any mention of the words "bullying", "Richie Incognito", "Jonathan Martin"or "Greg Schiano's job". Crap, I hope ESPN isn't spying for keywords like those and think I want them to talk about it all game.
Nathaniel: Dolphins. Looking forward to seeing how Jon Gruden gets psyched for this one. I know he’ll find a way, but I can’t figure out for the life of me how it’s going to happen offhand.

Records So Far
Lucas: 72-62 (8-5 last week)
Nathaniel: 63-71 (6-7 last week)