Friday, January 25, 2013

Halfway Through the Gauntlet

Like I did last year, I wanted to get some writing in about how both the men's and women's basketball teams at NCC stack up now that they've been through everyone in the CCIW at least once. It's been a fun season, to say the least. As they prepare for one more run through the Gauntlet, here's how everything looks halfway through.

Women's Basketball
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Considering the new system in place, flaws and all, I'm okay with how this team has done overall this season. Getting smoked by Illinois Wesleyan and Wheaton hurt, though I'm not surprised, given that they earned a combined 7 of the 8 first place votes in the preseason poll. Every other game in conference has been an entertaining, hard fought contest. Looking at these standings, the thing that really surprises me is Carthage. Considering how flat they looked for stretches against the Cardinals, I'm a little surprised they're [6-0] in CCIW play. Then again, a Wheaton team that took North Central behind the woodshed got their butts handed to them by a not-that-great Augustana team. Despite the absence of a team in the Top 25, this conference has a lot of good teams and anyone is capable of beating anyone else.

So, at 3-4, let's go with a conservative estimate of how CCIW play unfolds and say that the Cardinals lose at home to Wesleyan and at Wheaton, putting them at 3-6. Considering how the first Carthage game went, it's not too much of a stretch to think they could win up in Kenosha, and those other 4 games are all winnable. Depending on how the rest of the league plays, 8-6 might get you into the CCIW tournament. With this team it's no guarantee, but I certainly think it's doable. As long as the Cardinals keep up their well-adjusted game plan on offense and don't get killed too badly by easy layups off of breaking the press, they can play beyond mid-February (and depending on schedule and location, might mean a road trip is in order. We'll see.)

Final Prediction for NCC: 14-11, 7-7 CCIW (5th)

Men's Basketball
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The past few years has seen an established top of the conference, but looking at the current standings, Illinois Wesleyan somehow ran the first half table, which is amazing, and then you have North Central. After that there's a big grouping of everyone else pretty much. I think you could make an argument that the CCIW is the best conference in the nation, with 3 or 4 teams in the Top 25 at any given time, and North Central having been no lower than their season-opening mark of 6th in the nation, though that will go down after the loss to Wesleyan.

Personally I was shocked at NCC's first loss of the year (at Carthage, who's in that jumble in the middle) given where they were at to start the year, but it serves as a reminder of how tough this league is. 14-0 is all but impossible given how tough going on the road to any of these gyms is (yes, even North Park Middle School, as Geoffy loves to call it.) Now that the Cardinals are getting healthy again (Aaron Tiknis missed a couple games, and Derek Raridon dealt with a shoulder injury for a while) this team could conceivably still host the conference tournament, but it would require a win at home against Wesleyan and Wesleyan to lose a couple other games. I highly doubt the Titans will run the table the rest of the way; this league is just too good overall.

Final Prediction for NCC: 22-3, 11-3 CCIW (2nd)

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