I think I've said it on here before, but I'll say it again: for all its flaws, big time college football does seem to have the best regular season. And I still think an expanded, 16 team playoff wouldn't diminish it in any way. After all, the other divisions (D-III, for example) all have playoffs, and that same idea of "Every game counts" holds true, more so than in the big time. The NCAA unveiled its D-III bracket yesterday, and like in this system I've been outlining here, basically all conference champions get an automatic bid (except for a couple that don't want to hand one out), and everyone else has to battle for 5 at large bids. It makes more games meaningful for everyone. Isn't this how it should be in the big time?
So with all the games from this past weekend done, here's how I would seed the 16-team playoff. All ten conference champions make it, plus six at-large teams. Selection criteria isn't set in stone, but involves Non-Conference Schedule Strength (up to date conference averages can be found here), Playoff Points (basically, you get points for however many wins the teams you beat have), and computer rankings that factor margin of victory done by Jeff Sagarin (I use the "BCS Predictor" set found here) and the late David Rothman (his formula is public domain, and someone who uses it compiles rankings here). There's no exact formula for combining these factors, just me as a one-man "selection committee". For last week's seedings, click here.
1. Florida State (10-0, ACC "Champion", LW: 1- PP: 49; NCSS: 0; SAG: 1st; FACT: 1st)
2. Alabama (10-0, SEC "Champion", LW: 2- PP: 46; NCSS: 4; SAG: 3rd; FACT: 2nd)
3. Ohio State (10-0, Big Ten "Champion", LW: 3- PP: 42; NCSS: 4; SAG: 8th; FACT: 4th)
4. Baylor (9-0, Big 12 "Champion", LW: 5- PP: 41; NCSS: 1; SAG: 4th, FACT: 3rd)
5. Stanford (8-2, At Large, LW: 4- PP: 50; NCSS: 3; SAG: 7th; FACT: 10th)
6. Oregon (9-1, Pac-12 "Champion", LW: 6- PP: 34; NCSS: 4; SAG: 2nd, FACT: 5th)
7. Missouri (9-1, At Large, LW: 7- PP: 37; NCSS: 4; SAG: 9th; FACT: 7th)
8. Auburn (10-1, At Large, LW: 8- PP: 46; NCSS: 2; SAG: 15th; FACT: 8th)
9. Clemson (9-1, At Large, LW: 9- PP: 37; NCSS: 1; SAG: 11th; FACT: 6th)
10. Oklahoma State (9-1, At Large, LW: NR- PP: 37; NCSS: 3; SAG: 12th; FACT: 19th)
11. Arizona State (8-2, At Large, LW: NR- PP: 41; NCSS: 2; SAG: 5th; FACT: 11th)
12. Northern Illinois (10-0, MAC "Champion", LW: 11- PP: 31; NCSS: 7; SAG: 54th; FACT: 21st)
13. Fresno State (9-0, MWC "Champion", LW: 10- PP: 32; NCSS: 3; SAG: 47th; FACT: 44th)
14. Central Florida (8-1, American Athletic "Champion", LW: 13- PP: 31; NCSS: 8; SAG: 30th; FACT: 24th)
15. East Carolina (8-2, C-USA "Champion", LW: 15- PP: 28; NCSS: 6; SAG: 49th; FACT: 55th)
16. Louisiana-Lafayette (8-2, Sun Belt "Champion", LW: 16- PP: 28; NCSS: 8; SAG: 75th; FACT: 70th)
Out of the playoffs: Ball State (12), Texas (14)
I shuffled the order of the seeds anywhere from 3 to 200 times. It's tough now. In a way, I like this, because it throws the BCS into some chaos (except at the top). I'm not overly happy that I have NIU and Fresno State down so low (and looking through schedules, seeing the Rothman ranking so high for NIU, plus their higher NCSS, I flipped them) since they're unbeaten, but neither team has really beaten anyone. NIU's best win is against Ball State, and I'm not convinced there's a "signature win" for Fresno State.
At large bids were a pain to look over too. I gave Michigan State some serious consideration with only one loss, but their one loss was to a good-but-not-great Notre Dame squad and they haven't really beaten anyone. Even with their tough loss to USC, Stanford has beaten enough good teams that I'm okay keeping them in for now. Arizona State got my last at-large berth based on a good number of playoff points. They also lost to Notre Dame, as well as to Stanford, but they have some good wins against teams like USC and Wisconsin (another team I looked at).
The other tough cuts were SEC squads in South Carolina and Texas A&M. The Aggies' two losses make sense (Bama and Auburn), but they haven't beaten anyone of significance. The Gamecocks, meanwhile, have that double overtime win over Missouri, but I'm soured by those losses to Tennessee and Georgia. I think at the end of the day, my toughest cuts were Michigan State and South Carolina.
Even so, most teams still have two more games left on their schedules, and there are three weeks of regular season games left (I'm going to need to add another column to my NCSS spreadsheet). This leaves a lot of time for more to change. While no one has officially "clinched" a playoff spot yet, a lot of those teams in the top 5 or 6 are probably all but locks. If one of those unbeatens falls though... oh man.
I'll be glad next weekend when I have a chance to mess with this a little bit more with some new results and the fresh perspective of having been alive for 24 years. Tomorrow I'll run through the NCSS numbers for conferences (Spoiler alert: don't read if you're an SEC fan. I'm going to get really pissy).
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