Offensive Rookie of the Year
310-517 (60.0%), 4051 yds, 21 TD, 17 INT; 106 car, 706 yds, 14 TD
A lot of times having the top pick of the draft can be a crapshoot and players don't always pan out (see Russell, JaMarcus). Many people were skeptical of Cam coming into this year, but he has done a great job silencing all the critics. Arguably the best dual threat quarterback since Michael Vick, and this is just as a rookie. He had a respectable 84.5 quarterback rating, and a QBR of 56.6, 16th in the NFL. For a rookie, to be in the middle of the pack is all right, and he seems like he's got a lot of potential as the Panthers develop their talent. You have to give Andy Dalton credit too, but Newton played better I think.
Defensive Rookie of the Year
63 total tackles (41 solo), 7.5 sacks, 1 INT (TD), 4 FF
This one was a bit harder to decide on. Kerrigan was tied for 4th among rookies in sacks, 10th in total tackles, tied for 2nd in forced fumbles, and had the pick-6. You can definitely also make arguments for guys like Von Miller (11.5 sacks, 2 forced fumbles,64 tackles) or Aldon Smith (14 sacks, leading all rookies, plus a safety, 2 FF's and a recovery). I'm choosing to go with a guy who could do it all his rookie season. I feel bad that he's stuck on Washington, but the kid has a good future.
Offensive Player of the Year
468-657 (71.2%), 5476 yds, 46 TD, 14 INT
There was no real standout rusher this year despite 14 players making it to 1000 yards (and without injuries there would have been a few more), and Drew Brees rewrote the book on passing this year. He threw an average of 41 times per game, which is a lot, but he completed on average 28 or 29 of those for a good chunk of yards. He had a really good passer rating (110.6) and QBR (84.0). Plus the fact that he broke Dan Marino's old passing yards record merits the award too. Stay tuned for more on Brees.
Defensive Player of the Year
36 total tackles (29 solo), 11 sacks, 1 INT (TD), 6 FF, 3 recoveries (1 TD)
Defense is a harder side of the field to pick one outstanding player for because there's so many important things. Arguments could be made for Jared Allen (league-leading 22 sacks), Charles Woodson (tied for league lead with 7 picks), or even Terrell Suggs (league-leading 7 FF's, 70 total tackles), but I think Avril had an underrated overall season. At defensive end, you don't pick up a lot of tackles, but he did a great job getting pressure on opposing quarterbacks (11th in the league), 6 FF's (second only to Suggs), and scored a pair of touchdowns. I would be more than okay with one of the above guys winning (or even another player with a convincing enough case), but I would like to make a case for a guy who might not get a lot of votes.
Coach of the Year
13-3 (10-2 conference, 5-1 division), +151 points (11th PF, 2nd PA)
Took a team that went 6-10 last year and in his first year improved the team by 7 games. He helped revive Alex Smith's career, and turned the Niners into a great traditional team (pound the rock, play tough defense). That he did so in his first year speaks volumes. I would have said Mike McCarthy of Green Bay had the Pack gone unbeaten, but he deserves at least second place for taking the defending champs with a shortened training camp coming off a title and potential for Disease of More destruction. Credit him for keeping that team grounded and being able to survive so many teams' best shots all season long.
Most Valuable Player
343-502 (68.3%), 4643 yds, 45 TD, 6 INT; 60 car, 257 yds, 3 TD
This is the toughest one to call, because you can make an argument for Brees as well as Tom Brady. All 3 guys played out of their minds this season. I'm going with Rodgers for a couple reasons: a better total QBR (league-leading 85.2), and a record 122.5 passer rating (a new record, not beating out Peyton Manning by much, but Rodgers is the career leader right now). He also won 14 games this season as the starting quarterback, most in the league. When you also take into account that he did all this while getting pulled from a couple games late, plus not starting against Detroit this past Sunday, it makes his numbers look better. The problem is that Matt Flynn went off that day, which makes Rodgers' season numbers seem a little less significant. Then again, compare Rodgers' numbers to Brees. While Drew has higher yardage and one more touchdown he did so in 150 more attempts. Rodgers was more efficient.
To help with my decision, I'm borrowing Bill Simmons' definition of MVP outlined in The Book of Basketball and adapting it to football, which isn't easy.
- "If you replaced each MVP candidate with a decent player at his position for the entire season, what would be the hypothetical effect on his team's records?" This is the one that hurts Rodgers the most, since we saw what one game from Matt Flynn could do. A full season? Considering how many close games Green Bay played, the Packers probably only win 9 games instead of 15. Replace Brees with Flynn and I think there's a dropoff as well, but Brees does have a running game to fall back on. (So does Green Bay when they need to, but why run when you have dumpoffs from Rodgers?) Meanwhile in New England, we saw in 2008 what happens with a season without Brady. There's a lot of talent on the offense, but as atrocious as the defense was, no Brady likely means the Jets wind up winning the division and Rex Ryan doesn't bawl his eyes out. Advantage: Brady, Rodgers
- "In a giant pickup NFL game with every player available and two knowledgable fans forced to pick teams, with their lives depending on the game's outcome, who would be picked first based on how the season went?" This one is a tougher call, but given that Rodgers only threw 6 picks all year, and turnovers are deadly, wouldn't you want to go with the guy with a lesser chance of turning the ball over? I'd also want to go with the younger guy if I'm buidling a franchise. Rodgers is only 28. No disrespect to Brees, but I want a guy who can take a little better care of the ball... plus the fact that Rodgers beat Brees in Week 1. Advantage: Rodgers
- "Ten years from now, who will be the first player from that season who pops into my head?" Another tough call. A lot of people will probably remember Brees going off to break the yardage record, but early on in the season, all the talk was about Rodgers and the undefeated Packers. That one loss probably tarnished it a little bit, but I personally think Rodgers would be remembered first. Advantage: Rodgers
- "If you're explaining your MVP pick to someone who has a favorite player in the race- a player you didn't pick, will he at least say something like 'Yeah, I don't like it, but I can see how you arrived at that choice'?" I like to think I'm a good test case for this. I'll admit, I'm biased towards Rodgers because he's my team's quarterback. But if Drew Brees were to win the MVP, I can't argue with the decision because it's a defensible decision. Likewise, while every Saints fan is pushing for Brees to win the MVP, I think they could understand Rodgers winning. In either case, the losing fan base wouldn't be happy, but the decision makes sense regardless of which way you go.
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