To no surprise, the Patriots (13-3) fell in line behind Tom Brady and grabbed the top seed. They get a bye along with the Ravens (12-4), who look like they're getting back into form. Meanwhile, Houston (10-6) gets its first ever playoff game at home, and the Broncos (8-8) backed into a division title and a home game. Pittsburgh (12-4) is going to be a tough out, and I was a little surprised that Cincinnati (9-7) was able to sneak in for the other spot. Kudos to guys like Andy Dalton for never giving up.
Saturday: Bengals @ Texans. Houston is really not in good shape right now, having lost 3 in a row after clinching the division... not how you want to go into battle. But I'm not sure how sold I am on Cincy either. They did lose this week, but it was to a Baltimore team with motivation to win. I think I have to lean towards the road team in this one. Bengals over Texans.
Sunday: Steelers @ Broncos. I like the Denver defense and all, and I would put myself in the camp that supports Tim Tebow, but he really has not been very good the last few weeks. And he's facing a great defense in the group led by Troy Polamalu and James Harrison. Steelers over Broncos.
Divisional Round: A decent Bengals team that was able to get by a hurting Texans team then gets Tom Brady and Company? Have fun with that. Meanwhile, we get a third Ravens-Steelers matchup that I would only assume has to be a bloodbath this time since it hasn't happened yet this year. As a Packer fan I know too well that it's hard to beat a team 3 times in one season (see Wild Card loss to the Cardinals in 2010). Patriots over Bengals, Steelers over Ravens.
Conference Championship: Big Ben plays well in big games, and the Patriot defense is absolutely terrible. Say no more. Steelers over Patriots.
Green Bay (15-1), other than Kansas City, looked like probably the best team in the NFL en route to home field throughout. San Francisco (13-3) looked great this year too in what is likely a Coach of the Year season for Jim Harbaugh. New Orleans (13-3) is back again and will be a tough out, especially in the Superdome, while the Giants (9-7) are getting hot at the right time. Atlanta (10-6) is hoping to look better in this postseason than last year, and the Lions (10-6) are back for the first time since last millenium.
Saturday: Lions @ Saints. Detroit, playing for playoff seeding, gave up 480 yards passing and 6 touchdowns to Matt Flynn. Granted it was to most of Green Bay's best receivers, but consider that, then remember that Drew Brees set a new passing yards record, and realize that Detroit will have to wait at least another year for some great January moments. Saints over Lions.
Sunday: Falcons @ Giants. This one is more up for grabs. Atlanta hasn't really impressed me this year, and the Giants have had good and bad games all year, but they're on a roll right now. I find it hard for Atlanta to come into the Meadowlands and steal a win against Eli Manning, who is making a great argument for his inclusion among the elite quarterbacks of the NFL. Giants over Falcons.
Divisional Round: Chalk played out here and we saw Green Bay barely escape against the Giants in the Meadowlands earlier this year. At Lambeau with a week to recover, I think Rodgers and crew have a little more breathing room this time. Meanwhile, San Francisco has the right strategy for this time of year, but Drew Brees is Drew Brees and I have no idea what to expect from Alex Smith in January. Packers over Giants, Saints over 49ers.
Conference Championship: It almost seems like destiny that we get a rematch of the season opener. Problem is, in September it was about 60-70 degrees warmer. Rodgers showed last postseason he can pass well in cold weather. Brees and company have problems (2007 at the Bears for the NFC title, last year in Seattle to name a couple instances.) That said, this is probably the scariest matchup for the Packers all season, but I give the edge to Green Bay (I know, I'm biased). Packers over Saints.
SUPER BOWL XLVI
Another rematch between two of the best teams in the NFL. Credit Pittsburgh's defense again all you want, and criticize Green Bay's all you want, but there are two major considerations for this rematch.
1. Yes, the Packer defense relies a little too heavily on the takeaway (especially the interception), but in 15 of their 16 games this season they recorded at least one. That's scary consistency. Granted, the one game they didn't get one was the one they lost, but I see that game as a wake up call.
2. I'm not sure if people remember this or not. Let's look back at a quote from ESPN Stats and Info from before Super Bowl XLV.
"This will be Aaron Rodgers' 13th career start indoors. While his record indoors is just 6-6, Rodgers has been spectacular playing inside. He has thrown 25 touchdown passes with just six interceptions and has completed 68.4 percent of his passes. No quarterback since 2008 has a higher passer rating indoors than Rodgers' 111.5."-Vince Masi, ESPN S&IAdd in his numbers from this year, plus the Super Bowl, and he's thrown 35 touchdowns with just 6 picks in his career indoors. The accuracy and passer ratings I'm sure are similar. The dude is lethal anywhere, but even more so inside. In Indy? The Steelers (or any AFC team for that matter) have no chance. Packers over Steelers.
I will freely admit that there is likely a bias to this since I am a Packers' fan and see the team's flaws as no problem. The NFL always seems to remind us that any team can win on any given Sunday. The Giants, Saints, and Steelers could all take great care of the ball and keep Rodgers off the field and knock off the defending champs. But I also see in Green Bay a team that knows how to win, hasn't suffered from the Disease of More, and has a great chance of being the first team in a decade to repeat as champions.
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